No side has won the NRL with a PD of less than 100+

[VictoryFC]

In the history of the NRL, and even with the different finals systems in place, point differential remains the surest way of predicting the premiership winners.

After 21 seasons, every premiership winning side has had a PD of over 100 in the regular season. The lowest of these were 101 and 105, which came two years in a row when the Tigers won in 2005 and Broncos in 06. Both of these came during the McIntyre finals system, which is obviously no longer in use, and if the current system was in place there's a good bet neither would win it compared to the better sides with higher PD in those years. Other than those two, the lowest PD is 132. Since new finals system in place, a PD of 133 has been required at a minimum.

PD in regular season of premiership winners that year in order from 1998 to 2018: 378, 247, 308, 143, 216, 132, 269, 101, 105, 350, 290, 157, 219, 208, 218, 315, 224, 133, 176, 297, 181.

PD in 2019:
Storm 281
Roosters 196
Raiders 153
Manly 92
Souths 83
Eels 27
Panthers -63
Broncos -52
Sharks 2
Wests -64
Rest: No one cares.

Manly have Raiders away, Storm at home, Eels away = small chance of breaking 100 PD (let alone 130 under current finals system) even at 92 right now. They're gonna have to tonk one of those teams, and they could easily lose all three.

Souths have Bulldogs home, Broncos away, Warriors away, Roosters home. Easier schedule should see them break 100 PD, putting them in contention for a premiership.

In reality, Storm, Roosters and Raiders are clear favourites. No real surprises there, but I don't think we should be talking about any of the other teams as contenders. Manly are seen by some as a dark horse but history would suggest they have no chance.

 

[mave]

You dont happen to be French by any chance ?

 

[madunit]

In the history of the comp, and even with the different finals systems in place, point differential remains the surest way of predicting the premiership winners.

After 21 seasons, every premiership winning side has had a PD of over 100 in the regular season. The lowest of these were 101 and 105, which came two years in a row when the Tigers won in 2005 and Broncos in 06. Both of these came during the McIntyre finals system, which is obviously no longer in use, and if the current system was in place there's a good bet neither would win it compared to the better sides with higher PD in those years. Other than those two, the lowest PD is 132. Since new finals system in place, a PD of 133 has been required at a minimum.

PD in regular season of premiership winners that year in order from 1998 to 2018: 378, 247, 308, 143, 216, 132, 269, 101, 105, 350, 290, 157, 219, 208, 218, 315, 224, 133, 176, 297, 181.

PD in 2019:
Storm 281
Roosters 196
Raiders 153
Manly 92
Souths 83
Eels 27
Panthers -63
Broncos -52
Sharks 2
Wests -64
Rest: No one cares.

Manly have Raiders away, Storm at home, Eels away = small chance of breaking 100 PD (let alone 130 under current finals system) even at 92 right now. They're gonna have to tonk one of those teams, and they could easily lose all three.

Souths have Bulldogs home, Broncos away, Warriors away, Roosters home. Easier schedule should see them break 100 PD, putting them in contention for a premiership.

In reality, Storm, Roosters and Raiders are clear favourites. No real surprises there, but I don't think we should be talking about any of the other teams as contenders. Manly are seen by some as a dark horse but history would suggest they have no chance.

The history of the comp dates back to 1908. 15 teams have won the comp with a Pts Diff under 100.

the 1980 Bulldogs won with a PD of +27

 

[gUt]

LOCK THE THREAD

 

[VictoryFC]

The history of the comp dates back to 1908. 15 teams have won the comp with a Pts Diff under 100.

the 1980 Bulldogs won with a PD of +27

There are way too many variables pre-NRL and what's been in place since. As I mentioned, I'm even hesitant to compare from 98-11 and 11-today because of the change in the finals system.

In the 'modern era', since the creation of the NRL, no team has done it getting under 100 PD.

In 1980, there were 12 teams (meaning higher concentration of talent and fewer crap teams that have the potential to be blown out, increasing PD for top teams), they played 2 fewer games (less opportunity to improve PD), the whole comp was based in NSW (traveling and fatigue is far less of an issue), and there wasn't a salary cap (which completely affects the balance of teams today compared to 1980). I don't see how that's relevant to 2019 (or the NRL since inception) in any shape or form.

I have however changed the first paragraph in original post from 'comp' to 'NRL' to better reflect what I'm referring to, as technically you are right.

 

[Western_Eel]

Seems silly not to include teams pre NRL as it would've been harder to win with less points back then.

 

[mongoose]

Yeah i noticed this a few years ago, i think it goes back further to sometime in the 80s. But I guess any team that finishes top 4 is likely to have over +100 differential.

The only years I can think of that a team won the comp from outside the top 4 was Bulldogs 1995 (6th), Broncos in 1993 (5th). Both those teams had over +100 so pretty solid predictor.

 

[I Bleed Maroon]

Ah f**k here we go again.

 

[VictoryFC]

Seems silly not to include teams pre NRL as it would've been harder to win with less points back then.

Generally speaking, when you're trying to find ways to predict outcomes, you want to use variables which are at least somewhat consistent/comparable with what you have today. If we're being really honest, anything prior to 2011 is potentially misleading, as the new finals format changes things to favour teams with bigger differential (usually those in the top 4). So you could say that no team has won the NRL in its current guise with a PD of less than 133. But the NRL in 1998 is at least somewhat comparable, and it's still telling that no winner has gone below 100 PD in regular season.

 

[Diesel]

Regardless where a team sits mid season (top 8 vs bottom 8), the F/A gives an indication of how the team is travelling. Although we play some teams more than once can skew the table a little.

 

[VictoryFC]

Regardless where a team sits mid season (top 8 vs bottoms 8), the F/A gives an indication of how the team is travelling. Although we play some teams more than once can skew the table a little.

Agree, it’s more indicative than wins/losses/pts.

And good point about schedule.

 

[madunit]

Regardless where a team sits mid season (top 8 vs bottom 8), the F/A gives an indication of how the team is travelling. Although we play some teams more than once can skew the table a little.

In 2017, the Dragons F/A was the third best in the comp, but they finished in 9th place
2009, Cowboys F/A was 5th best, but they finished 12th

The best gauge of how a team is travelling is the Win/ Loss column, not very interesting, but accurate.

 

[VictoryFC]

With that 30pt thumping, Manly are now on +66. Need to beat the Eels by 34 next week to have a shot at the premiership. Good luck. Adieu Manly!

 

[TIGER14]

I guess that counts the Titans out then