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Non Footy Chat Thread II

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https://rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2020/pdf/rdp2020-05.pdf

Interesting part is the table at the beginning of Page 19, where the RBA lay out the figures for their stress test - Housing Prices to drop by 40%.

A bit above that they lay out the reasoning for using this number:

The scenario involves employment falling by 8 per cent and housing prices falling by 40 per cent (Table 4). We believe this is an extreme but plausible scenario, which is broadly in line with the shock experienced by some countries during the global financial crisis. 22 The employment fall is similar to the fall Australia experienced during the 1990s (7 per cent fall in employment-to-population ratio) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (7 per cent fall as of June 2020), but is significantly more extreme than during the global financial crisis. The housing price fall considered is more extreme than the 1990s (20 per cent fall in real housing prices) and during the global financial crisis, but is comparable to falls experienced in countries that were heavily affected by the crisis, including the United States (32 per cent fall), Spain (37 per cent fall) and Ireland (55 per cent fall).

So, even the RBA thinks that a significant house price fall is plausible (yes, I know...extreme, too...)
 

Avenger

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All I wanted to do is refinance my loan(s) and make my bank match the rates that a competitor offered. I could not believe all the stuff they wanted and it was just because I did it like a new loan with a new start/end date. Must have something to do with my age and if I’ll bundy off before the expiry of the loan agreement.
 

Gary Gutful

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All I wanted to do is refinance my loan(s) and make my bank match the rates that a competitor offered. I could not believe all the stuff they wanted and it was just because I did it like a new loan with a new start/end date. Must have something to do with my age and if I’ll bundy off before the expiry of the loan agreement.
...and the fact that you insisted on paying with bitcoin.
 

Bandwagon

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All I wanted to do is refinance my loan(s) and make my bank match the rates that a competitor offered. I could not believe all the stuff they wanted and it was just because I did it like a new loan with a new start/end date. Must have something to do with my age and if I’ll bundy off before the expiry of the loan agreement.

All finance is tighter ATM, a couple of years ago I bought a Merc 100% finance, and pretty much all they needed was the usual personal details and bank statements, done. A coupla months ago I was looking to buy a new Swift for my eldest daughters 21st, they're like 20k and I was putting in 10k and wanted to finance the rest. They ( the dealership finance ) wouldn't even look at me because I didn't have my business financials done for 2019 as yet. And that's a secured loan on a 50% LVR.
 

Gary Gutful

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All finance is tighter ATM, a couple of years ago I bought a Merc 100% finance, and pretty much all they needed was the usual personal details and bank statements, done. A coupla months ago I was looking to buy a new Swift for my eldest daughters 21st, they're like 20k and I was putting in 10k and wanted to finance the rest. They ( the dealership finance ) wouldn't even look at me because I didn't have my business financials done for 2019 as yet. And that's a secured loan on a 50% LVR.
Gotta sell that crop!
 

hindy111

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Only if you have to sell.

Otherwise it doesn't matter. A house is a home first and foremost.

Yep.

Look, the RBA classes it as an extreme scenario. I'd say 20% is a more realistic estimate and in 3 years we might see unemployment back in the 5s (although high 5s) and the market might have bottomed out.

Even if you were looking to sell and upgrade, if that wasn't going to happen for 10 years anyways then you're not ruined.

And think of it this way, even if there is a major crash - your $650k house (or whatever) that drops by 40% loses $260k, whereas the $1m house loses $400k. There's opportunity for upgrading if you're financially solid.

And let's not forget that this is the one thing Australian governments don't want to happen - they will throw billions and billions and billions at housing to stop or lessen the crash. Morrison is a big old conservative but he doesn't want to be the PM that saw the Australian housing market crash underneath him.
 

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