Surely any government in this country is more scared of overseeing the crash of the fabled Aussie housing market than anything else?
You'd think so, but hey, there's always room for exceptions, whether they be for ideologically driven policy direction, or sheer incompetence. Or even both.
The economy wasn't exactly doing as it was told before Covid, and that's at a time when most of the rest of the western world was experiencing fairly solid growth. Yet if you remember all the government was concentrating on publicly was delivering a surplus they'd already claimed to be delivered, despite the fact that as we now know beyond any doubt a forecast is never set in stone.
As it happens, that rock solid, guaranteed, already delivered surplus will become our biggest deficit ever, although that title may well only last a year.
Now I don't think that they'll be prepared to lock in an even bigger deficit next year without a fight, there's a lot of rusted on ideological belief in the coalition that a surplus is the holy grail of economic management, and if you're so economically illiterate as to believe such a thing, then you're incompetent enough to implement policy that damages the economy in other areas in pursuit of same.
ATM we have about as an artificially propped up economy as we would ever have, what with Job Keeper keeping literally millions of people off Job Seeker, which it's self has been inflated and is encouraging spending, not to mention the tens of billions that have been drawn out super prematurely, a lot of which is simply propping up retail spending.
I absolutely f**king guarantee the will pull an austerity at some point, provided of course they survive in government long enough to do so. Remember also we have some fairly generous tax cuts locked in by legislation coming in 2022 and particularly 2024, They're gonna have to go to the next election either dumping that as policy, or explaining how the f**k they are gonna keep that and show at least a semi believable path to surplus. That's is a rod for backs of their own making.
Meanwhile there's a f**k ton of people on mortgage holidays whose debt is only going up, not away, and some point that too will have to be reigned in and that money then won't be available to be spent.
It'll take some very careful management, or maybe a pile of dumb luck to avoid the worst effects of recession over an extended period of time, unless of course you're wedded to the V shaped recovery theory, in which case simply ignore everything I've posted.
