NRL and its clubs are expected to palm-off expansion until 2014 or 2015

[Goddo]

How many people will turn up to watch Souths vs Brisbane II at ANZ? Roosters vs Brisbane II at the SFS? Parra vs Brisbane II at Parramatta? If the Titans and Cowboys are any example, next to no-one. I suspect there might be just a few more people going along to watch Souths, the Roosters, Parra and the rest of the NSW teams play the Bears ;-)

True, but that is mitigated by the gains of having St George, Parramatta and Canterbury in Brisbane twice a year. There is also the money from TV which skews it heavily in Queenslands favour. And you have the Titans/Broncos darbies.

What is needed in Sydney is a rational plan for the game. Gallop identified in an interview the importance of having teams along rail coridors, as generally they run through the main "regions" of Sydney, and make it easier to get to games. Rail is the arteries of business and population.

The Illawarra Line for example is St George territory, with the branch going to Cronulla the Sharks. Bankstown line belongs to the Bulldogs, Parra is a main rail hub, Eastern Hills line cuts through Canterbury before heading out to Wests at Campbelltown, Liverpool sits as a major junction between the Tigers, Bulldogs and Eels.

Yet some teams are isolated, and not on major transport coridors (I'd happily exempt Souths as there should be an Eastern Suburbs line running underneath ANZAC Parade).

This is where the Bears do truely serve a purpose - but I think a 50/50 split between Gosford and North Sydney Oval (like St George) would be better.

The problem with that is how do you squeeze another side into Sydney, reducing the Free to air exposure of each club, reducing the potential sponsorship cut, and reducing potential market share. You can't.

Meanwhile, South East Queensland, Australia's fastest growing region, has a population around 3.2 million, and 2 teams. By 2050 Brissy will be as big as Sydney now, and Gold Coast 1.1m people.

Given expansion usually happens in 10-15 year cycles (so 6 more clubs by 2050), if we want to tap into that population growth we need to start sooner rather than later.

 

[Goddo]

Bye Bye Billion

Don't be nieve. as I pointed out on the first page of this thread:

NRL still rates its pants off, and if its a 5 year TV deal there will be 9 games for 4 of those years. AND we have Origin and Internationals.

If anything, $1b should be the minimum winning bid.

Having 1177 games (15 origins, 5 all stars, 40 finals, 5 grand finals, 24*8+24*9*4 regular season matches (assuming expansion in 2014), and 5 ANZAC tests 21 Four Nations (3 series), 30? World Cup matches)

rather than 1201 games (15 origins, 5 all stars, 40 finals, 5 grand finals, 24*9*5 regular season matches, and 5 ANZAC tests 21 Four Nations (3 series), 30? World Cup matches)

to sell over 5 years makes little difference, especially when you concider its the lowest valued games out of the total (regular season). Its not like we are getting rid of State or Origin.

Only possible down side is not having the market presence in Perth, and fewer Qld games to sell with the advent of the Anti-siphoning changes comming into effect in 2013.

I forgot to add 5 World Club Challenges, 5 city vs country's, the Pacific Cup, Charity Shield, trials, and of course the entire English Super League.

Do you seriously think losing roughly 24 games from the potential 1201 over 5 years by delaying expansion one year will make a huge impact on the rights negotiations?

Its not like we are talking about canning Origin or Internationals here. Its 24 regular season games being given up. The only impact would be not servicing the Perth / South East Queensland TV market as much in 2013.

Not having that for 1 year out of 5 isn't going to make much of a difference to the bottom line. LEK (the company the NRL is paying to advise them on rights value) said as much.

 

[AlwaysGreen]

Yeah, let's just forget about the thousands of new Bears fans who will be created by the re-introduction of the team, and pretend that there aren't bucketloads of Bears fans who still love their team and are counting down the days until they come back..

A handful of ageing norths fans.

I guess if the Raiders folded tomorrow you'd jump straight onto another team and never look back :roll: .

Not going to happen. Canberra needs a team and is well supported, norths weren't.

A major strength of the Bears bid is that they will get the support of one of the strongest and fastest-growing rugby league regions in the world, while also bringing together fans of a 103-year-old team that has a rich history. .

As I said, now they are just part of history whose memory survives only through the efforts of a passionate few. In that sense the bears and their supporters can be likened to Penny Farthing enthusiasts or Civil War recreationists. Harsh but true.

Brisbane II can only hope to mop up the dregs of rugby league fans that the Broncos and Titans have left behind, while leading to record-breaking low crowds for their games in Sydney.

Really? So everyone in Brisbane is a Bronco or Titan fan? So a leading Brisbane businessman is going to all of this trouble for nothing? Record breaking low crowds in Sydney? Here's a suggestion - maybe the Sydney fans could get off their arses and support their team whoever they play.

 

[Zigwaa]

They should be growing the game in areas dominated by AFL so in 10 years time they will be realistic competitor.

I guess I can be ok with delay if they make an announcement in 2013 for 2015.

Someone mentioned it before with the new TV deal money and increase in the cap, the NRL may be waiting for some Sydney teams to struggle financially and have to relocate so new teams don't have to be established.

 

[bluesbreaker]

The only impact would be not servicing the Perth / South East Queensland TV market as much in 2013.

Bingo.

Most of the lunatics around here were trumpeting the virtues of our game leading up to our last deal too... Then the AFL came out and virtually lapped it.

The rights will be sold to the Channel 9 and Fox Sports cartel, who will put in the first and only bid, with a marginal improvement (relative to AFL, anyway). SOO/Tests/Finals will NOT be unbundled. Radio rights will be sold exclusively. The web rights will be be given away. There will be no 'contra advertising' negotiated. There will be no guarantees of coverage in developing markets. There will be no money for expansion (How many of the 16 clubs are going to vote yes to less money in their pockets? Maybe The Knights).

Gallop will continue on as CEO and talk 'conservatively' (read: talk DOWN) about our game in comparison to the AFL.

This picture will keep coming out over and over again.

We'll see whose naive Goddo.

 

[bluesbreaker]

And so be it. If RL supporters as a whole are too f**king stupid to do anything but snipe at the AFL in TFC, then reap what you sow.

 

[Goddo]

Well, heres what Craig Davidson thinks.. costs $20m every year we delay, plus a $10M club grant to each of the two expansion sides, totalling $40m per year delay. So $960M instead of $1,000M.

Thats worth it if its to stabilise the current clubs.

BRISBANE bid team boss Craig Davison has declared the NRL will cost itself $20 million for every year it delays moving to an 18-team competition as a ballooned date of 2015 firms as the expansion start.
NRL boss David Gallop said yesterday his personal view was that "we'd get to 18 teams by 2015''. Davison slammed the expanded timeframe, but declared expansion was now a matter of when and not if.

Gallop's verdict has all but crushed any lasting hope of expansion in 2013, with the code's new independent commission still yet to be implemented after initial hopes tenders would be submitted and finalised by this month.

He declared provision for a ninth weekly fixture would be written into the new television contracts, but argued it was important the NRL's existing 16 clubs be given a couple of years to consolidate under the new rights deal, set to begin in 2013, before introducing new licences.

But Davison argues the code actually stands to earn an additional $20 million-a-year profit under an 18-team format with a ninth weekly fixture guaranteed to broadcasters.

The development has left bosses of Brisbane's second team, set to next month unveil a club identity, logo, colours and home ground, now facing the prospect of not playing an NRL match for almost four years if it gets a licence.

Davison bristled at reports the commission would be guided on the expansion issue by the views of the NRL and its clubs at a strategic planning meeting on July 21.

"The commission will have its own views on how and when the game should move forward,'' Davison said.

"With all due respect, I don't see why a comment from David Gallop, with his views, changes that. He will be the messenger, the commission will make the decision.''

Davison was adamant a 2014 admission would not de-rail his bid team - which has letters of intention from several star players and stands alongside Perth as a frontrunner - but branded 2015 a major issue.

"If it's 2014, not 2013, that's no problem. It changes our focus a bit on players but '14 is ideal and '13 achievable,'' he said. "I don't believe 2015 should even be looked at. It would be three years into the new TV deal and the game would be missing out on $40 million in revenue each year that would come with two more teams. It would cost the game $10 million total per team and the game would be $10 million per year better off for each new team.

"We know Channel 9 has been chasing another team in Brisbane for a while now.

"The commission will make its own mind up when they sit in front of David Gyngell (Channel 9 CEO).''

http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/nrl/nrl-bid-team-slams-gallop-over-40m-expansion-delay/story-e6frep5x-1226078073987

 

[besthalfbackPEARCE]

We need to reduce clubs before we can expand. Clubs that need to go:
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Cronulla Sharks
St George Illawarra Dragons

 

[Goddo]

32 - 8

 

[Lowdown]

Gallop: Ahhhhh...but ahhhh....a consulting firm once told us there's no additional value in bringing in an extra team. Ahhhh...

Sure - consultants: You pay peanuts..you get monkeys.

 

[BunniesMan]

We need to reduce clubs before we can expand. Clubs that need to go:
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Cronulla Sharks
St George Illawarra Dragons

f**kwit. 2 of those clubs will be around long after yours. And btw I'm adding you to my ignore list, should have done it a long time ago.

 

[Beowulf]

Canberra needs a team and is well supported, norths weren't.

QUOTE]

Am assuming its April 1!!! :lol:

Ignoring 99 when we were nomads through weather/constructor problems at Bluetongue, our crowds were fine, TV ratings second best and by the 1995 criterion we were one of the 4 wealthiest NSW Clubs in the comp.

In trying to become the #1 strongest Club in the comp we voted to change our name to CC Bears in 1997 and move to Gosford when 'the perfect storm' came along. Nevertheless, if the NRL had honoured its word to look after the Bears if they moved, this conversation would never be taking place and the CC Bears would be chasing their 10th straight title.......it is April 1 after all!

 

[Spanner in the works]

I just can't see any value in having the Bears as one of the next two expansion teams. Sure, there are a lot of people on the Central Coast, but Sydney is expanding and the Central Coast as we know it will be amalgamated into Sydney anyway. Unless some Sydney teams start merging, then I don't think there is a spot for them in 2014/15. There is far better value elsewhere. I think they could possibly get in around 2022, but there are other areas that need to have teams first, such as Perth, Brisbane, Ipswich and Wellington. I'd like to see:

2014/15 - Perth and Brisbane. Add a Wellington and Ipswich Toyota Cup side with a view to full expansion in:
2018/19 - Ipswich and Wellington. Add a Central Queensland and Central Coast Toyota Cup side with a view to full expansion in:
2022/23 - Central Queensland and Central Coast. Add a PNG and Adelaide Toyota Cup Side with a view to full expansion in:
2027 - PNG and Adelaide

 

[bluesbreaker]

Can someone explain to me why on earth the clubs would sit down with David f**king Gyngell of all people to talk expansion?

"Please David, we need your advice... Yes, we know your network has f**ked our game every step of the way, but do our expansion plans fit in with you? Will you be able to significantly undervalue our rights for the 2nd time in a row if we do that?"

This Craig Davidson must be a deadset intellectual heavyweight. f**k being the leader of the QLD #4 bid, what a waste of his talents, lets make him CEO of the NRL!

The billion is gone unless we have concrete plans for expansion. No 'maybe in 2013... Wait 14...no no really 15'. We need it to happen and quick smart.

 

[dgsfan]

Canberra needs a team and is well supported, norths weren't.

QUOTE]

Am assuming its April 1!!! :lol:

Ignoring 99 when we were nomads through weather/constructor problems at Bluetongue, our crowds were fine, TV ratings second best and by the 1995 criterion we were one of the 4 wealthiest NSW Clubs in the comp.

In trying to become the #1 strongest Club in the comp we voted to change our name to CC Bears in 1997 and move to Gosford when 'the perfect storm' came along. Nevertheless, if the NRL had honoured its word to look after the Bears if they moved, this conversation would never be taking place and the CC Bears would be chasing their 10th straight title.......it is April 1 after all!

Proof? You've said this many times but have never had the guts to show some evidence other than hear-say.

 

[M2D2]

I will laugh if Perth gets ahead of the CC. To get players to play for a perth team, they would have to say "no salary cap for the first 5 years" Unlike the GC, Perth is not a desirable location to move to.
The CC at least has the resemblance of infrastructure and still being in NSW/east coast will allow easier access to players. Perth will only make it as a TV numbers experiment.

 

[Knightmare]

Yes, they are league heartland and yet have only 3 teams to NSW's 10.

So? Qld has 3 teams and Mars has 0- we should be expanding there!

 

[Spanner in the works]

I will laugh if Perth gets ahead of the CC. To get players to play for a perth team, they would have to say "no salary cap for the first 5 years" Unlike the GC, Perth is not a desirable location to move to.
The CC at least has the resemblance of infrastructure and still being in NSW/east coast will allow easier access to players. Perth will only make it as a TV numbers experiment.

What a bizarre statement to make.

 

[El Diablo]

I will laugh if Perth gets ahead of the CC. To get players to play for a perth team, they would have to say "no salary cap for the first 5 years" Unlike the GC, Perth is not a desirable location to move to.
The CC at least has the resemblance of infrastructure and still being in NSW/east coast will allow easier access to players. Perth will only make it as a TV numbers experiment.

:lol:

Melbourne don't struggle getting players and Perth is booming atm

a Perth team would more than likely have locals in it soon too seeing we've already had WA juniors in the NRL

CC adds nothing to a TV deal and advertisers who want national exposure

 

[M2D2]

1. Melbourne dont struggle because of all the money news limited put into them over a decade ago.
2. its Melbourne. A city that doesnt close down on Sundays.
3. A team made of locals did SO well in the Bundy Rum league a few years ago.

CC adds nothing to a TV deal. I agree. But adding in a 17th/18th team JUST for TV numbers will do NOTHING for the league instead of just adding 2-3 hours to travel time for any other NRL team and some corporate fat cats patting themselves on the back for expanding the game to Perth.

At least CC is a heartland and will offer something to the game. Just like a central Queensland team should be ahead of a second brisbane team.
This will never happen. But its the way it should be.
Health > short term money.