NRL Expansion. Ideas and opinions.

[flippikat]

Because it's hard to justify the NRL adding more clubs from small regional markets like the CC and SC, while large metropolitan markets like Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, and arguably even Melbourne, go either unrepresented or underrepresented.

Spot on. That's where NRL and AFL diverge - our "outside of Sydney" expansion that's lasted has tended to be small regional markets -- Illawarra, Newcastle, North Queensland, and arguably Gold Coast & Canberra too, whereas AFL have gone right to the state capitals for their expansion - Sydney, then Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide.. then doubled-down on their investment in the capitals, adding Port Adelaide, Freemantle and GWS. The notable exception being Gold Coast.

Admittedly, their code is natural to Melbourne, Adelaide & Perth whereas NRL is native to just Sydney, & Brisbane (if were just counting mainland state capitals)- however the approach to expansion is still striking. AFL decided their comp needed to focus on big cities for expansion, and they did just that - heartland or not.

The problem now is that we have an oversaturation of teams in Sydney AND a plethora of teams in markets that AFL would never dream of bothering with.. the result being that if we want a similar state capital footprint to AFL (including lucrative derbies) we're facing a 20+ team competition!

 

[mistertaylor]

Derbies, schmerbies.

Would love to see how much more lucrative a derby is for a middling Sydney team compared to, say, a game against a top team like Melbourne or the Roosters.

 

[siv]

Derbies, schmerbies.

Would love to see how much more lucrative a derby is for a middling Sydney team compared to, say, a game against a top team like Melbourne or the Roosters.

Is thats why Sydney clubs take their games verses Melbourne out if Sydney to Adelaide, Perth, Gosford or Brisbane

 

[mistertaylor]

Is thats why Sydney clubs take their games verses Melbourne out if Sydney to Adelaide, Perth, Gosford or Brisbane

But they don't, do they?
Also, how are derbies any more lucrative than games against top teams? My argument is that they aren't.

 

[siv]

But they don't, do they?
Also, how are derbies any more lucrative than games against top teams? My argument is that they aren't.

Just list those regional home games from last year and you will see the trend

Manly v Warriors
Penrith v Melbourne
Wests v Gold Coast
Souths v Warriors
Canberra v Penrith
Cronulla v Gold Coast
Melbourne v Parra
Souths v Nth Qld
Easts v Canberra
Easts v Melbourne
Parramatta v Canberra
Souths v Melbourne
Easts v Nth Qld
Cronulla v Warriors

 

[The Great Dane]

I agree Brisbane 2, Perth, Adelaide should come first but SC should definitely be considered down the track for a relocation. It's more viable than central QLD which some people harp on about.

By the time that Bris 2, Perth, and Adelaide are all in the NRL and stable the NRL will be/should be looking at getting saturation in the metropolitan markets and NZ.

If the Sunshine Coast ever happens it should be a long way down the track.

 

[mistertaylor]

Just list those regional home games from last year and you will see the trend

Manly v Warriors
Penrith v Melbourne
Wests v Gold Coast
Souths v Warriors
Canberra v Penrith
Cronulla v Gold Coast
Melbourne v Parra
Souths v Nth Qld
Easts v Canberra
Easts v Melbourne
Parramatta v Canberra
Souths v Melbourne
Easts v Nth Qld
Cronulla v Warriors

Sorry I don't see any trend. No derbies though.

Can you find anything (tv figures, crowd numbers, whatever) to support the idea that a derby (lets use dragons v sharks cronulla) is more lucrative for the sharks than if they hosted melbourne or the roosters in a similar timeslot?

 

[flippikat]

Just list those regional home games from last year and you will see the trend

Manly v Warriors
Penrith v Melbourne
Wests v Gold Coast
Souths v Warriors
Canberra v Penrith
Cronulla v Gold Coast
Melbourne v Parra
Souths v Nth Qld
Easts v Canberra
Easts v Melbourne
Parramatta v Canberra
Souths v Melbourne
Easts v Nth Qld
Cronulla v Warriors

Wow.. not a single 'Sydney club vs Sydney club' derby in there!

 

[MugaB]

Wow.. not a single 'Sydney club vs Sydney club' derby in there!

Generally its coz sydney clubs expect to draw a better crowd elsewhere against an interstate team, whether it ends up being a fact is another issue.
If cronulla does decide to take a home game to fiji for example, it will be against an interstate team

 

[siv]

Sorry I don't see any trend. No derbies though.

Can you find anything (tv figures, crowd numbers, whatever) to support the idea that a derby (lets use dragons v sharks cronulla) is more lucrative for the sharks than if they hosted melbourne or the roosters in a similar timeslot?

The trend is that Sydney teams take a number of their home games against on regional teams to remote locations due to their poor crowd drawing potential

So if we take the hypothetical 9 team Sydney conference v 9 team regional conference

You will probably find it will be the bulk of those 4/5 Sydney v regional home games that get relocated to a non NRL regional location

 

[siv]

Sorry I don't see any trend. No derbies though.

Can you find anything (tv figures, crowd numbers, whatever) to support the idea that a derby (lets use dragons v sharks cronulla) is more lucrative for the sharks than if they hosted melbourne or the roosters in a similar timeslot?

Its pretty simple

Just look at record crowds or last 5 year averages

But you cant just use Melbourne or Brisbane as your example

Gold Coast and Nth Qld regularly draw poor crowds

You will see many examples of 2 Top 4 Sydney teams drawing 30 to 50k crowds while Sydney v Regional Top 4 games will be lucky to draw 20k

 

[mongoose]

Its pretty simple

Just look at record crowds or last 5 year averages

But you cant just use Melbourne or Brisbane as your example

Gold Coast and Nth Qld regularly draw poor crowds

You will see many examples of 2 Top 4 Sydney teams drawing 30 to 50k crowds while Sydney v Regional Top 4 games will be lucky to draw 20k

Rabbitohs vs Roosters only got 20k last year with both teams in the top 4 all year. That's pathetic.

 

[Perth Red]

Generally its coz sydney clubs expect to draw a better crowd elsewhere against an interstate team, whether it ends up being a fact is another issue.
If cronulla does decide to take a home game to fiji for example, it will be against an interstate team

I'd be surprised if the majority of all Sydney clashes have more than around a 10% crowd impact, the big games being the exceptions. Does make sense to take the out of town games on the road though. Day and time and weather of KO are far bigger impactors on crowd size.

Just taking Sharks as an example:
Out of town games
v Titans 15.2k (sat)
v Storm 7.6k (wet Fri)
V Broncos 10.9k (sun)
v Cowboys 6.1k (thur)
v Warriors 11.2k (sat)
* v Raiders 18.9k (sun)
avg 11.6k

All Sydney games
v Roosters 13.4k (sat)
V Panthers 10k (Thur)
v Manly 13.3k (Sun)
v Eels 12.3k (Sat)
v Souths 13.5k (sat)
v Dragons 13.6k (Sun)
avg 12.6k

 

[Wily Ole Dog]

I wonder why there isn't ever much talk about a Sunshine Coast team? Sunshine Coast is probably the same size market as Central Coast or North QLD. It's a perfect location for a relocated Sydney team provided the stadium can be upgraded. I think Manly's feeder team used to be the Falcons, however I believe they are linked to the Storm now.

Problem is no Sydney team can relocate

 

[Wily Ole Dog]

]

Can you find anything (tv figures, crowd numbers, whatever) to support the idea that a derby (lets use dragons v sharks cronulla) is more lucrative for the sharks than if they hosted melbourne or the roosters in a similar timeslot?

Souths vs the Roosters

 

[siv]

Rabbitohs vs Roosters only got 20k last year with both teams in the top 4 all year. That's pathetic.

Souths v Easts are the only teams who draw 20k plus crowds on ThuNF in Sydney

So it says more about what the public think about ThuNF and the modern gameday package as this was the biggest ThuNF Sydney crowd for almost 6 seasons

 

[MugaB]

Problem is no Sydney team can relocate

Incorrect, roosters are perfectly suited for relocation, back to back premiers yet still draw poor crowds/memberships and junior club/participation compared to other sydney clubs past few seasons barr manly (which if manly had back to back success would most probably do way better then the rorters)

 

[Wily Ole Dog]

Incorrect, roosters are perfectly suited for relocation, back to back premiers yet still draw poor crowds/memberships and junior club/participation compared to other sydney clubs past few seasons barr manly (which if manly had back to back success would most probably do way better then the rorters)

As a bunnies supporter I was loathe to suggest that but what other clubs do you suggest.
Is one enough?
Personally I’d say Cronulla is the only option

I’d say the following are untouchable
Souths
Manly
Dogs
Parra
Penrith
St Merge
Wests

 

[T-Boon]

I think the only team in Sydney who could not be relocated is the Eels. The Eels are the biggest sports brand in Western Sydney and that's even though they have been a basket case for 20 years.

 

[mistertaylor]

Just taking Sharks as an example:
Out of town games
v Titans 15.2k (sat)
v Storm 7.6k (wet Fri)
V Broncos 10.9k (sun)
v Cowboys 6.1k (thur)
v Warriors 11.2k (sat)
* v Raiders 18.9k (sun)
avg 11.6k

All Sydney games
v Roosters 13.4k (sat)
V Panthers 10k (Thur)
v Manly 13.3k (Sun)
v Eels 12.3k (Sat)
v Souths 13.5k (sat)
v Dragons 13.6k (Sun)
avg 12.6k

I don't see how 1000 extra bums on seats is evidence of derbies being more lucrative.

Let's be honest about it, crowds are driven largely by perceived rivalries, be that geographical (Souths v Roosters) or borne out of spiteful/memorable clashes (storm v sharks).

TV ratings are driven by the latter, and respective ladder positions. I.e. no one wants to watch 15 v 16.