NRL Expansion. Ideas and opinions.

[blue bags]

bring back the BEARS

 

[The Great Dane]

A team from Tasmania will be joining the NBL competition for the 2021/22 season. Could an NRL team have a "part-time presence" in Tasmania? I can't see a full-time team down there, but could a team take 2 or 3 games a season down there, plus a trial?

Unless they have people that are prepared to totally bankroll them I reckon that the Tasmanian teams that the NBL and AFL are planning will end up like the Tasmanian teams of the past.

Tasmania is already a small market, but the low population density and lack of a strong corporate presence on top of that is going to make it very hard to make pro teams successful there.

Honestly any of the larger regional markets on the mainland are better markets in my opinion, I'd honestly be putting more effort into Geelong for example.

That's not to say that the NRL shouldn't do anything in Tasmania though.

 

[ash the bash]

My 2035 NRL

1) Brisbane Broncos: QLD Suncorp
2) Canberra Raiders: ACT
3) Sydney Roosters: SFS
4) South Sydney Rabbitohs: SFS
5) Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs: Liverpool/Belmore
6) Melbourne Storm: Aami Park
7) Penrith Panthers: Panther stadium
8) Manly Warringah Sea Eagles: Brookvale
9) Newcastle knights: Newcastle Stadium
10) Parramatta Eels: Bankwest
11) NQ Cowboys: QCB Stadium
12) Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: Shark Park
13) St George Illawarra: Jubilee/Win Stadium
14) Wests Tigers: Liverpool 4, Bankwest 4, Leichhardt Oval 4 or Campbelltown 4, Bankwest 4, Leichhardt Oval 4
15) Gold Coast Titans: Robina
16) NZ Warriors: Mt Smart
17) Redcliffe Dolphins: 8 Dolphin Oval (20k redeveloped) 4 Suncorp
18) Central Coast Bears: 8 Gosford, 2 North Sydney Oval
19) West Coast Pirates: NIB Stadium
20) Wester Corridor ?: 10 North Ipswich Reserve, 2 Suncorp

 

[Perth Red]

Mine if money and ambition was no object

1) Brisbane Broncos: QLD Suncorp
2) Canberra Raiders: ACT
3) Sydney Roosters: SFS
4) South Sydney Rabbitohs: SFS
5) Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs: SW Sydney Stadium
6) Melbourne Storm: Aami Park
7) Penrith Panthers: Redeveloped Panther stadium/2 games Bankwest
8) North Shore Eagles: North Sydney Stadium/3 games Gosford
9) Newcastle knights: Newcastle Stadium
10) Parramatta Eels: Bankwest
11) NQ Cowboys: QCB Stadium
12) Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: Southern Sydney Stadium
13) St George Illawarra: Southern Sydney Stadium/WIN
14) Wests Tigers: SW Sydney Stadium/2 games Leichardt
15) Gold Coast Titans: Robina
16) NZ Warriors: Mt Smart
17) Brisbane whatevers: Suncorp
18) Southern Orcas: 8 games Wellington/2 Christchurch/2Dunedin
19) West Coast Pirates: Finished HBF Park
20) Adelaide Aces: Redeveloped Hindmarsh Stadium

 

[RoosTah]

Always a fun exercise:

1) Brisbane Broncos: QLD Suncorp
2) Canberra Raiders: ACT
3) Sydney Roosters: SFS
4) South Sydney Rabbitohs: SFS
5) Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs: Liverpool/Belmore
6) Melbourne Storm: Aami Park
7) Penrith Panthers: Panther stadium
8) Manly Warringah Sea Eagles: Brookvale
9) Newcastle knights: Newcastle Stadium
10) Parramatta Eels: Bankwest
11) NQ Cowboys: QCB Stadium
12) Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: Shark Park
13) St George Illawarra: Jubilee/Win Stadium
14) Wests Tigers: Liverpool 4, Bankwest 4, Leichhardt Oval 4 or Campbelltown 4, Bankwest 4, Leichhardt Oval 4
15) Gold Coast Titans: Robina
16) NZ/North Island Warriors: Mt Smart
17) Brisbane Firehawks (love that name): Suncorp
18) South Island Bulls (NZ): Christchurch stadium
19) West Coast Pirates: NIB Stadium
20) Adelaide Rams: Adelaide Cooper Stadium

In my view NZ 2 and Adelaide are priorities over CC. NSW is pretty saturated and NZ needs a derby. In fact if anything I'd like to see NZ with 3 sides by 2035 as it strengthens the international game

 

[blue bags]

Always a fun exercise:

1) Brisbane Broncos: QLD Suncorp
2) Canberra Raiders: ACT
3) Sydney Roosters: SFS
4) South Sydney Rabbitohs: SFS
5) Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs: Liverpool/Belmore
6) Melbourne Storm: Aami Park
7) Penrith Panthers: Panther stadium
8) Manly Warringah Sea Eagles: Brookvale
9) Newcastle knights: Newcastle Stadium
10) Parramatta Eels: Bankwest
11) NQ Cowboys: QCB Stadium
12) Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: Shark Park
13) St George Illawarra: Jubilee/Win Stadium
14) Wests Tigers: Liverpool 4, Bankwest 4, Leichhardt Oval 4 or Campbelltown 4, Bankwest 4, Leichhardt Oval 4
15) Gold Coast Titans: Robina
16) NZ/North Island Warriors: Mt Smart
17) Brisbane Firehawks (love that name): Suncorp
18) South Island Bulls (NZ): Christchurch stadium
19) West Coast Pirates: NIB Stadium
20) Adelaide Rams: Adelaide Cooper Stadium

In my view NZ 2 and Adelaide are priorities over CC. NSW is pretty saturated and NZ needs a derby. In fact if anything I'd like to see NZ with 3 sides by 2035 as it strengthens the international game

13) St George Illawarra: Jubilee/Win Stadium DRAGONS

 

[blue bags]

Mine if money and ambition was no object

1) Brisbane Broncos: QLD Suncorp
2) Canberra Raiders: ACT
3) Sydney Roosters: SFS
4) South Sydney Rabbitohs: SFS
5) Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs: SW Sydney Stadium
6) Melbourne Storm: Aami Park
7) Penrith Panthers: Redeveloped Panther stadium/2 games Bankwest
8) North Shore Eagles: North Sydney Stadium/3 games Gosford
9) Newcastle knights: Newcastle Stadium
10) Parramatta Eels: Bankwest
11) NQ Cowboys: QCB Stadium
12) Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: Southern Sydney Stadium
13) St George Illawarra: Southern Sydney Stadium/WIN
14) Wests Tigers: SW Sydney Stadium/2 games Leichardt
15) Gold Coast Titans: Robina
16) NZ Warriors: Mt Smart
17) Brisbane whatevers: Suncorp
18) Southern Orcas: 8 games Wellington/2 Christchurch/2Dunedin
19) West Coast Pirates: Finished HBF Park
20) Adelaide Aces: Redeveloped Hindmarsh Stadium

13) St George Illawarra: Southern Sydney Stadium/WIN DRAGONS

 

[blue bags]

My 2035 NRL

1) Brisbane Broncos: QLD Suncorp
2) Canberra Raiders: ACT
3) Sydney Roosters: SFS
4) South Sydney Rabbitohs: SFS
5) Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs: Liverpool/Belmore
6) Melbourne Storm: Aami Park
7) Penrith Panthers: Panther stadium
8) Manly Warringah Sea Eagles: Brookvale
9) Newcastle knights: Newcastle Stadium
10) Parramatta Eels: Bankwest
11) NQ Cowboys: QCB Stadium
12) Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: Shark Park
13) St George Illawarra: Jubilee/Win Stadium
14) Wests Tigers: Liverpool 4, Bankwest 4, Leichhardt Oval 4 or Campbelltown 4, Bankwest 4, Leichhardt Oval 4
15) Gold Coast Titans: Robina
16) NZ Warriors: Mt Smart
17) Redcliffe Dolphins: 8 Dolphin Oval (20k redeveloped) 4 Suncorp
18) Central Coast Bears: 8 Gosford, 2 North Sydney Oval
19) West Coast Pirates: NIB Stadium
20) Wester Corridor ?: 10 North Ipswich Reserve, 2 Suncorp

13) St George Illawarra: Jubilee/Win Stadium DRAGONS

 

[T-Boon]

NQ Cowboys
Sunshine Coast Morton Bay Dolphins (Sunshine x 8, Redcliffe x4)
Brisbane Broncos (corp)
Brisbane WildTurkeys (corp)
South Queensland Titans (8x corp, 4xGC)
Newcastle Central Coast Knights (9xNewc,3xCC)
Northern Suburbs of Sydney Sea Eagles (8xNSO,4xBvale)

 

[greenBV4]

Taking a no f's given approach and a goal of 20 clubs, off the top of my head right now (ill argue with myself later) I'd go:

(5 Sydney SUPER clubs)
1) East Coast Roosters ('Easts') @ SFS w/ 3x CC maybe w/ 1x NSO
2) South Sydney Rabbitohs @ SFS (shift of focus to southern Sydney)
3) Western Sydney Eels @ WSS
4) Sydney Tigers @ WSS maybe w/ 1x Leichardt
5) Sydney Bulldogs @ WSS

(5 QLD)
6) Northern Cowboys @ NQ Stadium w/ 1x Darwin 1x Cairns
7) Brisbane Broncos @ Suncorp
8) Brisbane Firehawks @ Suncorp (Tigers + Bombers)
9) Moreton Bay Dolphins @ Suncorp w/ 3x SC
10) Gold Coast Titans @ Robina w/ 1x alternating Northern NSW

(3 Regional NSW + ACT)
11) St George Illawarra Dragons @ Wollongong w/ 1x SFS
12) Newcastle Knights @ Newcastle
13) Canberra Raiders @ Canberra

(4 Affiliates)
14) Melbourne Storm @ AAMI
15) Melbourne 2 @ AAMI w/ 2x Geelong
16) Adelaide Rams @ redeveloped Hindmarsh or new CBD
17) West Coast Pirates @ redeveloped nib or new CBD

(3 NZ/Pacific)
18) Auckland Warriors @ Mt Smart or new CBD
19) Southern Eagles (relocate) OR new (Southern Keas?) @ Christchurch w/ 3x Wellington, if Eagles maybe 1x Brookvale
20) Pacific Sharks (relocate) OR new (Pacifica United?) @ Fiji & PNG split (super out there plan would be 1x Hawaii), if sharks maybe 1x Cronulla or SFS

 

[flippikat]

Taking a no f's given approach and a goal of 20 clubs, off the top of my head right now (ill argue with myself later) I'd go:

(5 Sydney SUPER clubs)
1) East Coast Roosters ('Easts') @ SFS w/ 3x CC maybe w/ 1x NSO
2) South Sydney Rabbitohs @ SFS (shift of focus to southern Sydney)
3) Western Sydney Eels @ WSS
4) Sydney Tigers @ WSS maybe w/ 1x Leichardt
5) Sydney Bulldogs @ WSS

(5 QLD)
6) Northern Cowboys @ NQ Stadium w/ 1x Darwin 1x Cairns
7) Brisbane Broncos @ Suncorp
8) Brisbane Firehawks @ Suncorp (Tigers + Bombers)
9) Moreton Bay Dolphins @ Suncorp w/ 3x SC
10) Gold Coast Titans @ Robina w/ 1x alternating Northern NSW

(3 Regional NSW + ACT)
11) St George Illawarra Dragons @ Wollongong w/ 1x SFS
12) Newcastle Knights @ Newcastle
13) Canberra Raiders @ Canberra

(4 Affiliates)
14) Melbourne Storm @ AAMI
15) Melbourne 2 @ AAMI w/ 2x Geelong
16) Adelaide Rams @ redeveloped Hindmarsh or new CBD
17) West Coast Pirates @ redeveloped nib or new CBD

(3 NZ/Pacific)
18) Auckland Warriors @ Mt Smart or new CBD
19) Southern Eagles (relocate) OR new (Southern Keas?) @ Christchurch w/ 3x Wellington, if Eagles maybe 1x Brookvale
20) Pacific Sharks (relocate) OR new (Pacifica United?) @ Fiji & PNG split (super out there plan would be 1x Hawaii), if sharks maybe 1x Cronulla or SFS

I really like the spread of teams there. For team 19, I'd just launch the Keas & put the whole north side of Sydney (shore AND beaches), plus Central Coast as Roosters territory. Sea Eagles can join the Bears in a lower tier.

Team 20.. well, a Pacifica team is logistically tricky.. but pretty tempting. If that can't be done, the spot is there for a 3rd NZ team or a 2nd WA team (2 teams in WA means a late game for TV every weekend.)

If you set aside Pacifica & Melbourne 2.. that's still a pretty good 18 team competition with 2 NZ teams and good coverage of mainland Australia.

 

[jim_57]

Current 16, with either Roosters or Manly taking 4 games a year to Central Coast, plus being the away team for another 1 or 2 if possible.
Tigers picking a main venue from either Campbelltown or Bankwest.

Plus:
Brisbane Firehawks
West Coast Pirates
NZ 2 - Undecided between South NZ combined, Wellington, Chrustchurch or Auckland 2 (Orcas, Keas, Marlins, other cool name)
Adelaide Rams, Sunshine Coast Sawfish or Ipswich Hornets.

As far as increasing the spread even further I'd like to see each club drop back to 11 home games with 2 rounds each year becoming "themed" rounds as such. I'd go with 'On the Road round' and 'Country Round' but 2 OTRs could work just as well.

On the Road - All games played outside places that have an NRL team (Adelaide, Chrustchurch, Hamilton, Fiji, Darwin, PNG, USA, 2 WCC clubs UK/France etc). This would probably have to be round 1 to allow extra time to recover for teams that play overseas.
Country - Played in regional cities/towns (Wagga, Coffs, Tamworth, Bathurst, Albury, Mackay, Cairns, Toowoomba etc).

 

[greenBV4]

Team 20.. well, a Pacifica team is logistically tricky.. but pretty tempting. If that can't be done, the spot is there for a 3rd NZ team or a 2nd WA team (2 teams in WA means a late game for TV every weekend.)

If you set aside Pacifica & Melbourne 2.. that's still a pretty good 18 team competition with 2 NZ teams and good coverage of mainland Australia.

Yeah my thoughts exactly, Melb 2 and Pacific would be the 19 & 20 in this scenario, and perth 2 definatly has its merits if the pacific team was too hard logistically, I think melb 2 would come before perth 2 though purely for corporate reasons.

Then again in 10 years time we could all be thinking very differently, I'm curious what Melbourne would be like after 30 years of the storm and maybe if the corporate backing is there they would consider a melb 2 before the Sunny Coast/Bris 3 team, also depending on the success of Bris 2.

A melb derby would be beneficial but on the other hand a derby would also likely develop between the Storm and Adelaide anyway - actually as I'm writing this Ive thought that there is probably a case that could be put forward for Melb 2 before Adelaide if the focus was moreso on corporate support.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

NZ2 and NZ3 are needed to improve the game's popularity. I saw an article on the Bombers' website, it's a few years old, saying only 30,000 people tuned in across New Zealand to watch that weekend's games.

Colin Smith also had more sobering news for the NRL in the form of New Zealand broadcasting rights. The NRL is yet to sell those and he warned they could be in for more disappointment.

“They’re counting on this huge number from New Zealand — $150 million. The TV numbers in New Zealand are pretty dreadful. The games last weekend in New Zealand were about 30,000 (viewers). The All Blacks … were 580,000.”

http://www.brisbanebombers.com.au/nrl-must-add-another-brisbane-team/​

Adding teams, and in doing so building rivalries and creating new fan bases across the country, will increase the amount of New Zealanders watching the game each week and add value to the NZ broadcast rights. More kids will play the game too.

Put NZ2 in Auckland. The 6pm "pub game" makes money for Foxtel but costs Aussie clubs in the way of reduced attendances. Two Auckland teams could take turns hosting it from 8pm NZ time each Friday. Having a game on at this time each Friday will provide familiarity for Aucklanders. Friday night in Auckland will become RL night. Crowds will probably be poor at first, but it's short term pain for long term gain. Aussie clubs don't have to worry about drawing shit crowds from playing games at 6pm, which means NRL doesn't have to give them dispensation anymore. Win-win.

NZ3 could be the South Pacific Cyclones. Play them at 2pm on a Sunday so their games can be televised into Samoa and Tonga at a watchable hour in those countries. Take 4 or 6 games to PNG's National Football Stadium in Port Moresby. It will help develop the international game in NZ, PNG, Samoa, Tonga and Fiji. That's true expansion that will benefit the game at all levels.

If this article from Roy Masters is true then it looks like Perth will never get a team.

The Perth Origin match is a guaranteed financial success but any plans to base an NRL team in the Western Australian capital would involve a significant contribution from the state’s richest man, mining magnate Andrew ‘‘Twiggy’’ Forrest, to supplement any commitment from the WA government.

"Unless Twiggy finds another $200m, a second Brisbane team is ahead of Perth," was the observation of one ARL commissioner.

Forrest is a rugby union man and owns the now-defunct former Super Rugby team, the Western Force, as well as underwriting a proposed Global Rapid Rugby competition involving teams from Japan, Fiji, Hong Kong and Samoa.

Significantly, Papua New Guinea is not part of his football plans but the country is a mecca for miners, leading Colin Smith, director of Global Media and Sports, to say, "There is actually a good argument for Twiggy to fund a NRL team, not in Perth but Port Moresby. Rugby league is the only sport of substance in PNG and would have massive appeal. The PNG Hunters won the 2017 Queensland Cup."
​

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/no...brisbane-ripe-for-growth-20190623-p520gy.html

Port Moresby has merit. When the Hunters entered the Queensland Cup they had quite a few supporters fly into Brisbane from PNG to watch them play. I remember talking to them at a Wynnum Manly vs PNG game at Kougari Oval. Not everyone in PNG is poor and it is RL mad. Whether they can sustain a permanent team is debatable, but I wouldn't rule it out. There are a lot of foreign mining magnates making a lot of money from PNG's natural resources, so they might see value in putting their company's name on a local team.

17th Brisbane 2.
18th Auckland 2
19th Brisbane 3
20th NZ3/PNG

Media analyst Colin Smith pretty much agrees with me. Here's what he said.

"Both Channel Nine and Fox have indicated they want a second Brisbane team, but clubs will oppose expansion if it means lower annual grants.

Colin Smith adds: "I anticipate the NRL will get less broadcast income in the next deal unless they can develop some competitive tension or offer a more attractive product such as a second Brisbane team. Queenslanders watch the Broncos No.1, followed by the Cowboys, the Storm and the Titans.

"The NRL future strategy must be predicated on growing and strengthening its footprint. He says this should entail the consideration of:

• Retention of all existing clubs but, with clubs guaranteed annual grants of 130 per cent of the salary cap, "bailouts" must become only a last resort;
• No relocations of existing teams;
• Any new team must have the essence of tribal roots either by region or historic grouping;
• Any regional expansion must not have any other professional sport clubs in their potential area
• Immediate expansion to include another Brisbane team;
• Longer term expansion of the NRL to 20 teams with two divisions of 10 teams;
• Likely expansion, subject to a detailed review, must ensure growth in broadcast and club viability. The priority, in order, would be another team in NZ, a third team in Brisbane, another team in Melbourne and potentially a team in PNG;
• An expansion of the international game, capitalising on the passion NRL players have to represent their country of heritage, such as Tonga, Fiji or Samoa."

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/v-...le-for-broadcast-dollars-20190915-p52rgu.html
​

The only notable person pushing for Adelaide and Perth is John Ribot. I think it's fair to say he's a moron who almost killed the game with his vision back in the 1990s. Crowds dropped everywhere in 1996 during the Super League War, especially in Brisbane. We can safely discount anything that dill has to say.

"Ribot has been at the forefront of all of the game’s major forays into new markets - as the inaugural chief executive of the Brisbane Broncos, a founding father of the Melbourne Storm and the orchestrator of the Super League competition. The former Kangaroos international went against popular sentiment by advising against another team in Brisbane, calling for two Sydney clubs to relocate into Adelaide and Perth.

“It will sound like Sydney bashing, but I think over time teams will be going from Sydney and going to other areas,” Ribot said."

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/ex...se-of-sydney-clubs-ribot-20190319-p515kt.html
​

As stupid as Ribot is, he realises new teams for Perth and Adelaide won't work. After all these years, he's still looking out for the best interests of the Broncos, just like he did back in 1995. He doesn't want Brisbane 2 or 3 because it would force the Broncos to convince people to support them, as opposed to having people go to their games because they're the only team in town. After everything the Broncos have done to rugby league in this city, a lot of people will never give them the time of day and many will swap allegiances. Broncos are aware of it.​

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Yeah my thoughts exactly, Melb 2 and Pacific would be the 19 & 20 in this scenario, and perth 2 definatly has its merits if the pacific team was too hard logistically, I think melb 2 would come before perth 2 though purely for corporate reasons.

Then again in 10 years time we could all be thinking very differently, I'm curious what Melbourne would be like after 30 years of the storm and maybe if the corporate backing is there they would consider a melb 2 before the Sunny Coast/Bris 3 team, also depending on the success of Bris 2.

A melb derby would be beneficial but on the other hand a derby would also likely develop between the Storm and Adelaide anyway - actually as I'm writing this Ive thought that there is probably a case that could be put forward for Melb 2 before Adelaide if the focus was moreso on corporate support.

Do you honestly think there's going to be a Perth 1, Perth 2, Adelaide 1 and Melbourne 2?

I don't think you've thought this through.

PVL has ruled out expanding into SA, Vic and WA. An ARL Commissioner said Twiggy would need to invest $200 million into a Perth team for it get approval from the ARLC. He's a rah rah man and isn't going to fund an NRL bid. Adelaide has no formal bid. Channel 9 and Foxtel are not interested in putting teams in Adelaide, Melbourne 2 or Perth.

Let's see what happens to the Storm when Bellamy and Cam Smith retire. When they spent a couple of years outside the the 8 during the early 2000s their attendances dropped below 10,000.

Despite being in the top 4 every year from 2017-19, Storm were only the 8th most watched club in regards to total viewers.

https://pythagonrl.com/2020/04/06/e...-about-nrl-tv-ratings-but-were-afraid-to-ask/

That's despite acting as Queensland's surrogate 4th club due to their success and long list of Queensland Immortals who've played for them over the last 2 decades. Once those players have retired, and most of them have, and the team's form starts to wane, which it will when Bellamy and Smith leave, the team will lose appeal to Queenslanders. Especially when Brisbane 2 enters the competition.

A team that's always on top is always going to draw well in the heartland because purists like to see the best. Most of the Storm's viewers come from Queensland and NSW. The Brisbane average for non-Storm games between 2017-19 was just under 150,000 and just over it when they played. A Storm team that doesn't appeal to Queenslanders could lose up to 40,000 or 50,000 FTA viewers in Brisbane metro alone, based on last year's averages, which would be more than the amount of people who watch the game in Melbourne metro on 9Gem. Brisbane 2 and 3 will give people from Brisbane metro less reason to watch Storm, especially among juveniles who are still deciding who to follow.

Melbourne will offer very little to the NRL if they become no more popular in Brisbane than Raiders or Sea Eagles. The way they rose to fame will never be repeated with Melbourne 2, Adelaide or Perth because it relied on the acquisition of quality players from the demise of the Reds, Mariners and Crushers at the end of 97 and recruitment of 4 future immortals in 1998 who progressed to the NRL squad in the early 2000s. There's only one Craig Bellamy and he's about to retire. The next best is Trent Robinson and he's not going to relocate from the Roosters to the Storm. Without all of those things falling in line, there's no way an expansion team can replicate what Melbourne Storm have done. Without that success they will have no relevance in Queensland and NSW, or even their own territories. That's the cold hard facts about expansion. The NRL isn't going to add teams that will cost a fortune to prop up and rate so poorly the networks will not want to put them on TV.

 

[mongoose]

I can't ever see an NRL team in PNG. They would have to rely 100% on filling it with locals cause no one from Australia or NZ would ever relocate there. It's complete fantasy.

Why does Twiggy have to be involved in a Perth NRL team? that doesn't even make sense. May as well say Hugh Jackman must be one of the owners or it will never work.

 

[greenBV4]

Do you honestly think there's going to be a Perth 1, Perth 2, Adelaide 1 and Melbourne 2?

I don't think you've thought this through.

PVL has ruled out expanding into SA, Vic and WA. An ARL Commissioner said Twiggy would need to invest $200 million into a Perth team for it get approval from the ARLC. He's a rah rah man and isn't going to fund an NRL bid. Adelaide has no formal bid. Channel 9 and Foxtel are not interested in putting teams in Adelaide, Melbourne 2 or Perth.

Let's see what happens to the Storm when Bellamy and Cam Smith retire. When they spent a couple of years outside the the 8 during the early 2000s their attendances dropped below 10,000.

Despite being in the top 4 every year from 2017-19, Storm were only the 8th most watched club in regards to total viewers.

https://pythagonrl.com/2020/04/06/e...-about-nrl-tv-ratings-but-were-afraid-to-ask/

That's despite acting as Queensland's surrogate 4th club due to their success and long list of Queensland Immortals who've played for them over the last 2 decades. Once those players have retired, and most of them have, and the team's form starts to wane, which it will when Bellamy and Smith leave, the team will lose appeal to Queenslanders. Especially when Brisbane 2 enters the competition.

A team that's always on top is always going to draw well in the heartland because purists like to see the best. Most of the Storm's viewers come from Queensland and NSW. The Brisbane average for non-Storm games between 2017-19 was just under 150,000 and just over it when they played. A Storm team that doesn't appeal to Queenslanders could lose up to 40,000 or 50,000 FTA viewers in Brisbane metro alone, based on last year's averages, which would be more than the amount of people who watch the game in Melbourne metro on 9Gem. Brisbane 2 and 3 will give people from Brisbane metro less reason to watch Storm, especially among juveniles who are still deciding who to follow.

Melbourne will offer very little to the NRL if they become no more popular in Brisbane than Raiders or Sea Eagles. The way they rose to fame will never be repeated with Melbourne 2, Adelaide or Perth because it relied on the acquisition of quality players from the demise of the Reds, Mariners and Crushers at the end of 97 and recruitment of 4 future immortals in 1998 who progressed to the NRL squad in the early 2000s. There's only one Craig Bellamy and he's about to retire. The next best is Trent Robinson and he's not going to relocate from the Roosters to the Storm. Without all of those things falling in line, there's no way an expansion team can replicate what Melbourne Storm have done. Without that success they will have no relevance in Queensland and NSW, or even their own territories. That's the cold hard facts about expansion. The NRL isn't going to add teams that will cost a fortune to prop up and rate so poorly the networks will not want to put them on TV.

I'm not even going to read this because I'm sure I already have 100 times, your just derailing another expansion thread with your roundabouts

The whole point was an "ideal" 20 team spread not really taking any factors into account except geographical location and population

 

[greenBV4]

To take a little bite
Yes, I do think the EVENTUAL goal should be to have those teams

In 20, 50, 100 years time who do you think will be considered the 'national' sport, one struggling to even fill the east coast or one with atleast 2 teams in every major capital? And thus which is more appealing to corporate sponsorship? Because, you know, the NRL and its clubs are BUSINESSES

And please dont dribble on about juniors, its not a representative comp, in 1st tier leagues all over the world players are drawn from anywhere and everywhere, a club does not have to directly correlate to juniors, only the players in their squad and their reserves - junior and grassroots development is the job of the NRL and state body

 

[RoosTah]

NZ2 and NZ3 are needed to improve the game's popularity. I saw an article on the Bombers' website, it's a few years old, saying only 30,000 people tuned in across New Zealand to watch that weekend's games.

Colin Smith also had more sobering news for the NRL in the form of New Zealand broadcasting rights. The NRL is yet to sell those and he warned they could be in for more disappointment.

“They’re counting on this huge number from New Zealand — $150 million. The TV numbers in New Zealand are pretty dreadful. The games last weekend in New Zealand were about 30,000 (viewers). The All Blacks … were 580,000.”

http://www.brisbanebombers.com.au/nrl-must-add-another-brisbane-team/​

Adding teams, and in doing so building rivalries and creating new fan bases across the country, will increase the amount of New Zealanders watching the game each week and add value to the NZ broadcast rights. More kids will play the game too.

Put NZ2 in Auckland. The 6pm "pub game" makes money for Foxtel but costs Aussie clubs in the way of reduced attendances. Two Auckland teams could take turns hosting it from 8pm NZ time each Friday. Having a game on at this time each Friday will provide familiarity for Aucklanders. Friday night in Auckland will become RL night. Crowds will probably be poor at first, but it's short term pain for long term gain. Aussie clubs don't have to worry about drawing shit crowds from playing games at 6pm, which means NRL doesn't have to give them dispensation anymore. Win-win.

NZ3 could be the South Pacific Cyclones. Play them at 2pm on a Sunday so their games can be televised into Samoa and Tonga at a watchable hour in those countries. Take 4 or 6 games to PNG's National Football Stadium in Port Moresby. It will help develop the international game in NZ, PNG, Samoa, Tonga and Fiji. That's true expansion that will benefit the game at all levels.

If this article from Roy Masters is true then it looks like Perth will never get a team.

The Perth Origin match is a guaranteed financial success but any plans to base an NRL team in the Western Australian capital would involve a significant contribution from the state’s richest man, mining magnate Andrew ‘‘Twiggy’’ Forrest, to supplement any commitment from the WA government.

"Unless Twiggy finds another $200m, a second Brisbane team is ahead of Perth," was the observation of one ARL commissioner.

Forrest is a rugby union man and owns the now-defunct former Super Rugby team, the Western Force, as well as underwriting a proposed Global Rapid Rugby competition involving teams from Japan, Fiji, Hong Kong and Samoa.

Significantly, Papua New Guinea is not part of his football plans but the country is a mecca for miners, leading Colin Smith, director of Global Media and Sports, to say, "There is actually a good argument for Twiggy to fund a NRL team, not in Perth but Port Moresby. Rugby league is the only sport of substance in PNG and would have massive appeal. The PNG Hunters won the 2017 Queensland Cup."
​

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/no...brisbane-ripe-for-growth-20190623-p520gy.html

Port Moresby has merit. When the Hunters entered the Queensland Cup they had quite a few supporters fly into Brisbane from PNG to watch them play. I remember talking to them at a Wynnum Manly vs PNG game at Kougari Oval. Not everyone in PNG is poor and it is RL mad. Whether they can sustain a permanent team is debatable, but I wouldn't rule it out. There are a lot of foreign mining magnates making a lot of money from PNG's natural resources, so they might see value in putting their company's name on a local team.

17th Brisbane 2.
18th Auckland 2
19th Brisbane 3
20th NZ3/PNG

Media analyst Colin Smith pretty much agrees with me. Here's what he said.

"Both Channel Nine and Fox have indicated they want a second Brisbane team, but clubs will oppose expansion if it means lower annual grants.

Colin Smith adds: "I anticipate the NRL will get less broadcast income in the next deal unless they can develop some competitive tension or offer a more attractive product such as a second Brisbane team. Queenslanders watch the Broncos No.1, followed by the Cowboys, the Storm and the Titans.

"The NRL future strategy must be predicated on growing and strengthening its footprint. He says this should entail the consideration of:

• Retention of all existing clubs but, with clubs guaranteed annual grants of 130 per cent of the salary cap, "bailouts" must become only a last resort;
• No relocations of existing teams;
• Any new team must have the essence of tribal roots either by region or historic grouping;
• Any regional expansion must not have any other professional sport clubs in their potential area
• Immediate expansion to include another Brisbane team;
• Longer term expansion of the NRL to 20 teams with two divisions of 10 teams;
• Likely expansion, subject to a detailed review, must ensure growth in broadcast and club viability. The priority, in order, would be another team in NZ, a third team in Brisbane, another team in Melbourne and potentially a team in PNG;
• An expansion of the international game, capitalising on the passion NRL players have to represent their country of heritage, such as Tonga, Fiji or Samoa."

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/v-...le-for-broadcast-dollars-20190915-p52rgu.html
​

The only notable person pushing for Adelaide and Perth is John Ribot. I think it's fair to say he's a moron who almost killed the game with his vision back in the 1990s. Crowds dropped everywhere in 1996 during the Super League War, especially in Brisbane. We can safely discount anything that dill has to say.

"Ribot has been at the forefront of all of the game’s major forays into new markets - as the inaugural chief executive of the Brisbane Broncos, a founding father of the Melbourne Storm and the orchestrator of the Super League competition. The former Kangaroos international went against popular sentiment by advising against another team in Brisbane, calling for two Sydney clubs to relocate into Adelaide and Perth.

“It will sound like Sydney bashing, but I think over time teams will be going from Sydney and going to other areas,” Ribot said."

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/ex...se-of-sydney-clubs-ribot-20190319-p515kt.html
​

As stupid as Ribot is, he realises new teams for Perth and Adelaide won't work. After all these years, he's still looking out for the best interests of the Broncos, just like he did back in 1995. He doesn't want Brisbane 2 or 3 because it would force the Broncos to convince people to support them, as opposed to having people go to their games because they're the only team in town. After everything the Broncos have done to rugby league in this city, a lot of people will never give them the time of day and many will swap allegiances. Broncos are aware of it.​

Agree with a lot of this. My only point of contention would be the NZ 2 side. I think you'd be better off basing them in Christchurch and making them the South Island Bulls. The Bulls are an established identity in NZ RL and they'd have an instant rivalry with the Warriors given that NZers who don't live in Auckland all f#cking hate Auckland, South Islanders in particular.

The truth is that in Auckland, whilst the Warriors' fan base is in the south side of the city the market potential in the north is frankly pretty limited and you immediately alienate the rest of the Auckland hating country by basing another team there.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

To take a little bite
Yes, I do think the EVENTUAL goal should be to have those teams

In 20, 50, 100 years time who do you think will be considered the 'national' sport, one struggling to even fill the east coast or one with atleast 2 teams in every major capital? And thus which is more appealing to corporate sponsorship? Because, you know, the NRL and its clubs are BUSINESSES

And please dont dribble on about juniors, its not a representative comp, in 1st tier leagues all over the world players are drawn from anywhere and everywhere, a club does not have to directly correlate to juniors, only the players in their squad and their reserves - junior and grassroots development is the job of the NRL and state body

I am fully aware pro sports is a business. I am not sure you understand how businesses are run.

Businesses need to generate as much money as they spend. In Aussie pro sports a business needs to have a strong ticketed membership base and generate high television ratings. Pro RL teams in Adelaide, Melbourne and Perth are going to fail to meet this criteria. I've shown you how dreadful the TV ratings in Melbourne metro are for the Storm and, far worse down there for RL games not involving them. I've explained that the only thing bailing them out is Brisbane metro adopting them as a surrogate 4th Queensland team because the area is under serviced, and that relationship was built on the team building itself around once in a generation superstars from Queensland who dominated the game at all levels. That well is almost dry as the talent is retiring and irreplaceable. Brisbane 2 is going to be a reality in a few years and when it is, people in Brisbane looking for an alternative to the Broncos will finally have one and not have to look interstate.

The broadcasters and companies looking for commercial opportunities to promote their product do not ignore the criteria I've mentioned. I've quoted a media analyst and other leading figures in the game to prove my point.

The game doesn’t need teams in every capital to make money. It has made
its fortune on the back of Brisbane and Sydney and lost millions in Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide.

What you're suggesting is as silly as putting a KFC in a trendy hipster suburb full of vegans and saying it has to be done because McDonald's is everywhere.

Do you not see the irony in you bashing the idea of expanding Brisbane's footprint to 3 or 4 teams and now claiming the game's struggling to take over the east coast?

If you refuse to patronise your loyal customers all you're doing is inviting your competitors to claim them.

The experts agree with me and will never do what you're suggesting. That is all that needs to be said.