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NRL's growth mindset points to 18th team. And it ain't Perth.

mongoose

First Grade
Messages
9,342
Probably just speculation coz they aren’t that flash.

Personally I see them and the Titans as part of the biggest Mexican standoff in sport. Can’t see either of them moving coz their governing body will lose face if they back out (first..).
The constant negative sentiment about sports teams on the Gold Coast doesn't help either of them. If the Titans start making finals regularly they will be well supported. I think people don't realise that all 3 QLD teams have support all over the state, not just in their area.

I used to be a Telstra tech based in Nerang years ago and we covered a massive area, out to towns like Cunnamulla. Was always surprised how many Titans fans I would come across in the outback...
 

Jamberoo

Juniors
Messages
923
Only because the tassie govt was willing to tip $10mill a year in. Change of govt and theyre in trouble. There is no normal distribution in afl, every club varies depending on their needs. 12k victorians moved to brisbane last year.

what the afl review actually said
  • The case can be made for a 19th Licence but re-location of an existing team if a club is prepared to take that path, or a joint venture between Tasmanian stakeholders and a Victorian team that secures strong support in two markets from the outset, would arguably produce a more sustainable outcome and therefore should be considered before a 19th licence.
There is this thing called contracts that governments use to lock in contracts despite a change in power. Change of govt wont make any difference. Also, the merge and relocate options have already been ruled out by Tasmania and the AFL clubs. It is a 19th team or the status quo.

Also, there is a minimum distribution that the strong AFL clubs like West Coast, Hawthorn, Richmond receive. They do give more to the battlers like St Kilda. The Tasmania bid will not need the extra tens of millions that they or the Qld/NSW clubs currently get. Lions doing much better than 5 - 10 years ago, but is still relatively weak in financial terms.

And many Victorian moved to Qld last year due to COVID lockdown. Many of them retirees. It is not necessarily a long term trend.
 
Messages
8,480
The constant negative sentiment about sports teams on the Gold Coast doesn't help either of them. If the Titans start making finals regularly they will be well supported. I think people don't realise that all 3 QLD teams have support all over the state, not just in their area.

I used to be a Telstra tech based in Nerang years ago and we covered a massive area, out to towns like Cunnamulla. Was always surprised how many Titans fans I would come across in the outback...
Yeah mate I can see that. And they have made big inroads in the last few seasons after a lengthy lacklustre spell.

I genuinely hope and think they will stay put. If they didn’t, if could be like the US pulling out of Aghanistan n the AFL would immediately take over running the place at the sufferance of the people.
 

The Great Dane

First Grade
Messages
5,710
Would be madness for them not to go to Tassie next IMO. They've got a ready-made fan base, and it's a relative stones-throw from Melbourne (with 9 or so clubs?) compared to anywhere else they could go, eg Bris2 and especially Darwin, so travel costs are far less for the majorit of flights to/from etc.

Methinks NRL Brisbane2 is targetted, amongst other things, to try and prevent AFL Brisbane2 (whether it's in place of, or in addition to the Suns). It is the next logical step in bringing a new team to the NRL for mine - but more consolidation than expansion.
A reasonable argument could be made that Canberra would be a better market than Tasmania commercially, especially in the mid-long term. But yeah, Tassie, Canberra, and maybe third teams in Perth and Adelaide (even those would be very risky in my opinion) are their only realistic options in the short term.

Maybe they can convince a broadcaster in NZ to pay enough to effectively underwrite a team in Auckland for the length of a contract, but that'd be unlikely in my opinion, and it'd be an extremely risky strategy so long as they are in so deep financially in so many other markets.

Darwin, or the NT and NQ idea that gets thrown around, is a ludicrous pipedream.
 
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The Great Dane

First Grade
Messages
5,710
Yeah mate I can see that. And they have made big inroads in the last few seasons after a lengthy lacklustre spell.

I genuinely hope and think they will stay put. If they didn’t, if could be like the US pulling out of Aghanistan n the AFL would immediately take over running the place at the sufferance of the people.
The Titans, or Suns, Pulling out of the GC now would be committing seppuku for that sport on the GC so long as the other exists, and the bigwigs at both the NRL and AFL know it.

Whether they like it or not they're both committed to the GC now, and no matter the costs the Titans and Suns aren't going anywhere.
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
51,207
At le
The Titans, or Suns, Pulling out of the GC now would be committing seppuku for that sport on the GC so long as the other exists, and the bigwigs at both the NRL and AFL know it.

Whether they like it or not they're both committed to the GC now, and no matter the costs the Titans and Suns aren't going anywhere.
at least the Titans only cost us $13mill, Suns is still costing them $20-25mill. Mind you with $300mill more revenue a year they can afford it I suppose.
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
51,207
I take your point that it flows through to higher profits for the AFL, but AFL's costs are significantly higher than the NRL's too, so we don't really need to match their revenue, just their profit.
For professional sport most costs are flexible based around revenue ie how much you decide to fund clubs, how much you fund grassroots, how much player welfare you have, how much you fund community projects etc etc

If NRL had $260mill a year more the clubs would be better funded, grass roots would be better funded and we'd have a national comp (maybe!)
 

Centy Coast

Juniors
Messages
55
The Bears should connect with Perth, with the majority of games played in WA, this would also give Perth a NSW Cup team.
As AFL is dominant in Perth, aligning with the Bears would give Perth an automatic fan base in both NSW and Qld when they play games in those States.
Another NZ team would fail miserably, it took the Warriors years to establish themselves and they have been far from successful.
 

Colk

Bench
Messages
3,150
I think any option would work. It all comes down to how reward or benefit the game thinks there is and ultimately how the sport views itself.

In my opinion, there isn’t that much risk in Adelaide or Perth or NZ 2 (especially the latter two); at least compared to how others may view it and the rewards are far greater (long term especially) than plonking another side in NSW or QLD. But I may be in the minority.

On the Bears thing, it would have to be taken over by a WA (or wherever else they may go) consortium before it can be even considered.
 

flippikat

Bench
Messages
3,328
I still think that we need to look after our own, it's called the National rugby league and Perth really need to be considered before another NZ team.
I agree - the next team should clearly expand the game's footprint, rather than creating a derby, or splitting an existing market (which Brisbane 2 or NZ 2, or a Bears bid that's based in NSW would do).

We can look at options around another Queensland club (most likely SE Qld) or splitting the NZ market in the following expansion round (going from 18 to 20 teams), but that 18th team has to be bold & put the game somewhere that's completely unrepresented at the moment.
 
Messages
6,407
I agree - the next team should clearly expand the game's footprint, rather than creating a derby, or splitting an existing market (which Brisbane 2 or NZ 2, or a Bears bid that's based in NSW would do).

We can look at options around another Queensland club (most likely SE Qld) or splitting the NZ market in the following expansion round (going from 18 to 20 teams), but that 18th team has to be bold & put the game somewhere that's completely unrepresented at the moment.
Perth is the only bid that grows the game. There will never be a better time to expand into Perth.
 

Nuke

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
4,456
Well, there was. That was 27yrs ago, but given the circumstances, now/soon is the next best opportunity.

I don't know that they'll be the Pirates or the Reds, but a WA team surely has to be next.
 
Messages
6,407
Well, there was. That was 27yrs ago, but given the circumstances, now/soon is the next best opportunity.

I don't know that they'll be the Pirates or the Reds, but a WA team surely has to be next.
Perth does have a few advanced bids.

The problem with the ARL's expansion in 1995 is they made the four new clubs cover the travel and accommodation costs of visiting clubs. It was a massive expense and one that the new franchises couldn't afford. News Ltd bailed out the Cowboys, Reds and Warriors as they needed both clubs for Super League. Crushers were never part of News Ltd's plans so they were left to die.

News Ltd doesn't have a stake in the Perth market, so they sacrificed the Reds for a club in Australia's second largest city, where they do have a daily publication. I cannot help but think this has been the reason Perth keeps getting overlooked, despite it having so many positives that will benefit rugby league in this country.

News Ltd do have a stake in the NZ media, so there's a benefit to them adding a second team. The only thing that might work against NZ2 is financial security. The Easts Tigers are loaded and have security through their Leagues Club and playing facilities, which are being upgraded to make them NRL ready.
 
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