You know that reaction most of us have to a bad defeat ? After the punch wears off, we find all manner of rationales to lessen the pain: if only we had this and that, just tighten up such-and-such, then ... where is he ? I know I can beat him ...
I reckon much of the NSW commentary on the inclusion of Mitchell and Moses has had a whiff of this wishful thinking about it, e.g. with QLD somehow being fearful of the changes, Latrell being "in their minds" and Moses "kicking us to victory" etc. etc. but is there the dull basso of the
Jaws theme in the background ?
Now there's no doubt LM brings plenty in attack with his strength and power, but in defence ... well it's fair to say that both he and "Critta" will likely be seriously tested on a firm and fast Melbourne track by the likes of Walsh and Hammer (among others). While there are ways and means to cope and stay with opponents who are bigger, stronger even better than you, there is a Real Problem with those who are
quicker than you.
If someone has 1 or 2 yards on you, then sometimes it almost doesn't matter how smart you are, how good your skills are, how adept you are at reading the opposing attack, if you just can't get there in time, then the klaxons are going full blast to put it mildly.
My expectation is that Slater will be anxious to test
both sides of the NSW defensive line with his speed men, knowing that any breach there likely can't be fixed in time by the cover defence (see: Game 1).
This is by no means to suggest that NSW is in any way pedestrian, but to me this is RL's equivalent to that circumstance in cricket where the fast bowlers touch that 150kph threshhold, where the game changes instantly and chillingly.
As for the kicking game: although it's an essential weapon, in the end it's secondary to the primary attributes of running and passing through the hands. And QLD has a pretty decent kick game as well.
I'd say that on balance this is QLD's to lose, coming down to how well DCE/Dearden can set up their outside backs: NSW will need ways to shut that down, to prevent them getting the ammo to the guns, so to speak. Lord knows QLD itself has written plenty of those sort of chapters in the book of winning against all the odds, why can't NSW do the same ?
Or to put it another way, if NSW play their best, they
can win; but if QLD play their best they
will win and if they stay "on" for most of the game they should win well [ did anyone else get the impression that QLD seemingly got a little bored, even careless during the middle portion of Game 1 ? ].
Oh well with a little more than 24 hours to go, we'll see just how well all this ages ...