OT: Current Affairs and Politics

[Gronk]

Not my boys. I didnt vote for em

You whinged like hell when uncle clive helped scomo win in 2019 with preferences... but now its all happy times when it works in your favour

You’re manipulating what happened so you can manufacture a gotcha.

The mining lobby absolutely had an impact in the 2019 by directing votes away from labor. Clive stood as the fair go party and good old aussie values. His campaign slogan was “Make Australia Great”. He never mentioned fossil fuels or mining or the underlying climate change denier mindset. So my beef was never preferences under two party preferred system, it was how the fossil fuel industry intervened in the election.

Despite spending on a similar scale to the major parties, Palmer walked away with no seats from the 2019 election, netting just 2.36% of the Senate vote and 3.43 per cent of the House of Representatives votes.

It was an unprecedented level of expenditure by a party that failed to gain any parliamentary representation, but Palmer’s influence and campaign did enough to channel dissatisfied Labor voters to the Coalition through preferences. The effect would deliver huge dividends to the Minerals Council particularly after the election of a pro-coal, pro-mining, Coalition government.



This election he did the same thing and campaigned on the Freedom tag, offering to cap mortgage interest rates and raise the pension. The electorate saw through it and realised that a vote for Palmer could never achieve what was promised.

The results of this election was not based on bullshit. There was a huge raw vote swing away from the incumbants because the punters had an appetite for change. If you think that anyone has been elected this year under false pretences, then I’d like to hear it.

 

[strider]

I never said anything happened under false pretences ..... you are the one who believes there were false pretences in 2019 - that UAP's 3.4% of the vote managed to direct enough preferencesto a LNP, a fraction of which were dissatisfied labor voters

Labor lost in 2019 cos they were a shit alternative ..... LNP lost this time cos they were a shit government .... now its Labors turn to be a shit government and by the end of the decade it will probably flip again

 

[Gronk]

I never said anything happened under false pretences ..... you are the one who believes there were false pretences in 2019 - that UAP's 3.4% of the vote managed to direct enough preferencesto a LNP, a fraction of which were dissatisfied labor voters

Labor lost in 2019 cos they were a shit alternative ..... LNP lost this time cos they were a shit government .... now its Labors turn to be a shit government and by the end of the decade it will probably flip again

Sorry, you’re making it out that it’s my sole salty opinion that Palmer’s involment in the 2019 swung the result. Even he claims victory in that regard.

The controversial billionaire looking to upend Australia's federal election, again

Claiming to boast a membership of more than 80,000 people, the UAP says it will field candidates in all 151 lower house seats at the upcoming election.

au.news.yahoo.com

Morrison can thank UAP's 'Shifty Shorten' ads for returning him to Lodge, Palmer says

Businessman and former senator Clive Palmer failed to pick up a single seat in the election, but he says his $60 million advertising campaign is behind Labor's defeat.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Gronk]

Looks like News Ltd has moved on to it’s next project.

When is the next State election?​

The next State election day will be Saturday 26 November 2022.

State elections are held on the last Saturday in November every four years.

State elections

In a State election, you vote on who you want to represent your area in the Upper and Lower Houses of the Victorian Parliament.

www.vec.vic.gov.au

 

[hindy111]

My guess is a lot of the older liberal voters who are wealthy and the idea of policies that favoured them and protecting their money/investments. Knowing liberal will tax companies less and favour businesses etc where lost due the Liberal talking about bringing down costs of living, price of electricity, food and so on. Wealthy people can't relate to that. They've never battled for a dollar or had to search for specials or save for a holiday. Groceries going up $30 a week wouldn't of been noticed at all. No concern.
So they moved on to something else and independents and greens perhaps make them feel a little better about their lives and perhaps a bit important so they will voted for them.....

I mean it's just a thought. But if its correct well then what does it say about the Greens and Independents really. Perhaps think about it......

 

[crocodile]

My guess is a lot of the older liberal voters who are wealthy and the idea of policies that favoured them and protecting their money/investments. Knowing liberal will tax companies less and favour businesses etc where lost due the Liberal talking about bringing down costs of living, price of electricity, food and so on. Wealthy people can't relate to that. They've never battled for a dollar or had to search for specials or save for a holiday. Groceries going up $30 a week wouldn't of been noticed at all. No concern.
So they moved on to something else and independents and greens perhaps make them feel a little better about their lives and perhaps a bit important so they will voted for them.....

I mean it's just a thought. But if its correct well then what does it say about the Greens and Independents really. Perhaps think about it......

The ALP has reduced company tax to a much greater extent than the coalition. By a substantial margin too.

 

[Bandwagon]

The ALP has reduced company tax to a much greater extent than the coalition. By a substantial margin too.

People tend to forget history in favour of current narratives around history.

The scope of Keating's company tax cuts makes a joke of that narrative. But hey, Howard also cut the corporate rate by a coupla points, so you know.

 

[Bandwagon]

My guess is a lot of the older liberal voters who are wealthy and the idea of policies that favoured them and protecting their money/investments. Knowing liberal will tax companies less and favour businesses etc where lost due the Liberal talking about bringing down costs of living, price of electricity, food and so on. Wealthy people can't relate to that. They've never battled for a dollar or had to search for specials or save for a holiday. Groceries going up $30 a week wouldn't of been noticed at all. No concern.
So they moved on to something else and independents and greens perhaps make them feel a little better about their lives and perhaps a bit important so they will voted for them.....

I mean it's just a thought. But if its correct well then what does it say about the Greens and Independents really. Perhaps think about it......

I think there's an element of truth to those voters who went Teal being able to afford those positions. But I also think it's oversimplifying it. Issues tend to have their time where momentum has enough people thinking they are important that it leads to political results.

It's easy to dismiss the move away from the Liberals to the Teals in that manner, but it's a grave error to swallow it whole. It doesn't explain the Greens for example also picking up two seats from the Liberals, nor does it explain that surveys were showing well prior to election day that climate change was high on the list of issues that voters cared about.

I also would not discount the issue of an effective federal ICAC, that was also an issue high on the policy agenda of the Greens and Teals. Few were seeing the LNP's efforts in that area as anything but an effort to appear like they were doing something, without actually doing anything. Much like so many of their announcements.

In the end those electorates that went Teal, were simply given a stick they beat this Liberal government with that avoided them having to vote Labor in order to do so. These are ( were ) heartland Liberal blue ribbon seats, that they lost them is pretty serious shit for the party. They will struggle to win an election without them, and if they listen to the commentary around doctors wives and these seats all being full of lefties in disguise, they are headed towards electoral oblivion.

 

[Gronk]

My guess is a lot of the older liberal voters who are wealthy and the idea of policies that favoured them and protecting their money/investments. Knowing liberal will tax companies less and favour businesses etc where lost due the Liberal talking about bringing down costs of living, price of electricity, food and so on. Wealthy people can't relate to that. They've never battled for a dollar or had to search for specials or save for a holiday. Groceries going up $30 a week wouldn't of been noticed at all. No concern.
So they moved on to something else and independents and greens perhaps make them feel a little better about their lives and perhaps a bit important so they will voted for them.....

I mean it's just a thought. But if its correct well then what does it say about the Greens and Independents really. Perhaps think about it......

The labor party won 8 seats in their own right

The greens won 3 seats from the libs.

Independents won 6 seats, however Fowler was lost by labor after they dropped KK into the campaign and ignored the viet vote.

You should reflect on those high Chinese % working class electorates that savaged the libs. That was warmongering Dutton’s fault.

My take is that punters took their own seat very seriously. It wasn’t necessarily a federal election, it was a conglomeration of By-Elections and a judgment on the local member. Look how the northern rivers and SE Qld flood victims voted.

The only seat that I think does follow your premise is North Sydney. Trent Zimmerman was a good operator and crossed the floor in votes of conscience. However it seems he took his position for granted and did not campaign enough in his patch. You take the electorate for granted at your own peril.

 

[Mojo]

Not my boys. I didnt vote for em

You whinged like hell when uncle clive helped scomo win in 2019 with preferences... but now its all happy times when it works in your favour

It’s certainly happy times that the obese poser has achieved absurd irrelevance.

 

[Bandwagon]

The labor party won 8 seats in their own right

The greens won 3 seats from the libs.

Independents won 6 seats, however Fowler was lost by labor after they dropped KK into the campaign and ignored the viet vote.

You should reflect on those high Chinese % working class electorates that savaged the libs. That was warmongering Dutton’s fault.

My take is that punters took their own seat very seriously. It wasn’t necessarily a federal election, it was a conglomeration of By-Elections and a judgment on the local member. Look how the northern rivers and SE Qld flood victims voted.

The only seat that I think does follow your premise is North Sydney. Trent Zimmerman was a good operator and crossed the floor in votes of conscience. However it seems he took his position for granted and did not campaign enough in his patch. You take the electorate for granted at your own peril.

Greens took two seats from the Libs, one from Labor.

I think Zimmerman suffered from spill over protest due to Deves candidacy next door, I reckon that pushed a fair few votes away from the Libs on the North Shore

 

[The Silverdale Phantom]

State of play in Ukkie world:


Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.al...ia-ready-to-ship-grain-stuck-in-ukraine-ports

Just on the war, it’s a good idea to suck in many sources. Al Jazeera is balanced enough, but I suspect even they can’t wear the impending food crisis on the horizon.

The Ruskies tested a missile recently that clocks in at Mach 10, hence, impossible to shoot down.

It’s not so much they are losing the war, but that they are showing some kind of restraint.

Germany and France, ready to talk but only if Russia withdraws and that’s unlikely.

Russia ready to let the grain go, but only if the west lift sanctions. That’s revenge of high order. A terrible development and won’t elicit much sympathy. So a massive refugee crisis looming as well.

Don’t forget that the Ruskies have bulk natural resources.

Civilian death toll about 4,000 apparently. 4000 too many.

US ready to send more weapons over, Germanys defence budget increased by massive amounts.

Not much sense on all sides, everyone’s content to keep the war going. Joke.

 

[Gronk]

Finland have a long border with Russia, who have a history of muscling land from the Fins. This is a snapshot of the Fins from the past and their concerns about the future.

 

[The Silverdale Phantom]

Just a quick ad break for soo:

 

[Gronk]

Dutton got the gig nobody wanted and Barnaby has been analed.

 

[Twizzle]

I think the Nats got the message from the Teals that Barnaby was not a good choice moving forward

 

[Twizzle]

 

[the phantom menace]

I think the Nats got the message from the Teals that Barnaby was not a good choice moving forward

Or the Nats somehow realised that a Dutton-Joyce pairing was going to be even less appealing to sane people (and the National Party's hopes of relevance) than Morrision-Joyce?

 

[Gronk]

Remember when merkins said that the SMH are mad lefties ?

 

[Gronk]

The ALP hit 76 seats last night and a majority Government. So with the 4 greens and 8 or so teal, that gives them a mandate in the lower house to undertake meaningful policy in climate change, an indigenous voice in parliament, federal ICAC and reverse the neglect in the pacific.

In the senate however, they need the greens to make things law.



2022 Federal Election Results https://www.abc.net.au/news/electio...medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web via @ABCaustralia