OT: Current Affairs and Politics

[Gronk]

Fake news.

Yeah, was having a larf.

 

[JokerEel]

You’re not listening merkin.

View attachment 96410

He wasn't wrong also got a lot of democratic voters to go his way this election as well..

 

[Avenger]

You guys don’t realise that the Teals are potentially the answer to the Liberals having perpetual leadership in this country. They are your people, yet you treat them like outsiders. The Teals are the mirror image of the UK tories. They are fiscally conservative however have a social and environmental conscience with a specific focus on climate change.

The paradoxical difference between the UK conservatives and the Australian conservatives is quite alarming. The Australian tories are actually far right. Too far to ever stay in power for more than one term.

As I say on repeat, if a 2025 election in Australia follows global trends of flipping governments because of the cost of living, then you guys should ditch Dutton and find a moderate, absorb the Teals and you’d be on a back to back winner.

The Teals started to flourish when Howard stayed one term too long and never gave power to Costello (despite Costello being a coward), it snowballed with Abbott giving out Australian recognition to English monarchs, we then went into full back stab mode like the ALP with Turnbull and then shit the bed with Morrison. This is why a incompetent ex houso like Albo is now running the country.

 

[The Silverdale Phantom]

Party cadre who replaced sleepy joe with Pamela.

Told her where to campaign, who to and what to argue.

She followed the party line all the way to defeat.

However clunky and unimpressive she was, the deep state democrats sealed her fate.

 

[strider]

The paradoxical difference between the UK conservatives and the Australian conservatives is quite alarming. The Australian tories are actually far right. Too far to ever stay in power for more than one term.

so they only became incapable of doing more than one term in the last 3.5 years? ... ok

 

[Chipmunk]

So in a 52% Republican v 48% Democrat US result, that would mean the inference to Australia results within %% accuracy either way would be:

Conservatives between 47-57%
Labour between 43-53%

Not enough to conclude any potential winner there I'm afraid.

But you still think Labor has a mandate to do whatever it likes with only 33% of people voting for them?

 

[The Silverdale Phantom]

When the US opens its energy reserves, it might not have to rely on the Middle East as much.

Therefore it might be inclined to take less interest in the troubled region.

 

[Chipmunk]

In 2020 81 million voted for Biden and 74 million for Trump.

In 2024 68 million voted for Harris and 72 million for Trump.

A lot of people just couldn’t be f**ked to vote for Harris, same with Trump, just less.

Harris failed to motivate full stop.

Trump looks like he lost supporters, but picked up others in different demographics.

I am sure there are other ways to slice and dice those stats too.

This is raw, and has sweary words so > NSFW <. British journo/comedian breaks down Harris’s campaign.

Spoiler: NSFW - Says f**k a bit

I think there is still 6-8 million votes to be counted though.

 

[The Silverdale Phantom]

The far right in Australia have an incredibly hostile public service to deal with as well as a High Court with guts.

Australia’s deep state.

The Public Service is its own political force. They are disciples of woke and pretty much run the country anyway.

 

[Chipmunk]

I do wonder if Australia didn't have compulsory voting.

How much of the eligible voting population would go and vote.

I reckon it would hover around 80-85% maybe even lower perhaps depending on whose putting themselves up.

Like atm we have 2 clowns no one really likes and its been that way for a while.

And if it wasn't compulsory i reckon a fair chunk wouldn't be bothered going because of the quality of candidates.

I don't think I would bother if it wasn't compulsory. I might feel differently if I lived in a generally marginal electorate and my vote decided something though.

 

[Chipmunk]

Right, so if Albo doesn't reverse the worldwide trend of the incumbent being binned, then we'll all be shocked ?

I see what you did there.

Interestingly on Wednesday Sportsbet had the next Federal Election Labor $1.83, Coalition $1.96. Today it is Coalition $1.80, Labor $2.00.

 

[Chipmunk]

You guys don’t realise that the Teals are potentially the answer to the Liberals having perpetual leadership in this country. They are your people, yet you treat them like outsiders. The Teals are the mirror image of the UK tories. They are fiscally conservative however have a social and environmental conscience with a specific focus on climate change.

The paradoxical difference between the UK conservatives and the Australian conservatives is quite alarming. The Australian tories are actually far right. Too far to ever stay in power for more than one term.

As I say on repeat, if a 2025 election in Australia follows global trends of flipping governments because of the cost of living, then you guys should ditch Dutton and find a moderate, absorb the Teals and you’d be on a back to back winner.

Name me one leader of the Liberal Party, Federal or State, who is of the moderate faction of the party, who has increased the vote of the Liberal Party at any election in this country in the last 40 years?

 

[Chipmunk]

That would be an even bigger shit sandwich to swallow .... but i give it zero chance. Australia is oozing with virtue signalers falling over themselves to show they support "The Teals" ... plus the opposition have literally nothing to offer .... it wont happen

Albo won't get up mate. Dutton will be the next PM.

So it's been 3 nights now with TRump president elect!

Anyone that actually though Harris was going to win really needs to get with reality she was never a viable option as President.

I still think Albo will be Dumbledore at the next election here but not because Albo is any good more because Dutton has been and his team are still feeling the effects from Scomo era.

I can't see any result other than a minority government for either side at the next election. History would have to be defied for their to be a majority.

You need 76 seats in the House of Reps for a majority. Labor currently has 78. The only first term government in Australia in the last 90 years (we'll forget the first 30 years as the make up of the Australian Parliament was quite different party wise) who has lost less than 5 seats at the next election held was Whitlam back in 1974, who lost 3 seats, only 17 months after their election into Government. In the last 30 years, at least since Howard beat Keating, the least seats a first term government has lost is 11! That says to me that Labor is zero chance of forming a majority, and that is completely forgetting the current trajectory of both parties. I'd say they win somewhere between 64-67 seats based on history.

On the other side, the Coalition only has 55 seats, so needs to win 21 seats for a majority. The most seats a first term opposition has won in those same 90 years is 18 (except for 1949 when the House of Reps went from 74 to 121 seats). It's not been uncommon in the last 40 years though that a first term opposition has won 16-18 seats at the next election though. But they have been Labor oppositions. The most seats a Coalition opposition has won at the first election after losing government in 90 years is 7 (excluding 1984 when the House of Reps increased from 124 to 148 and they won 16). That says to me that the Coalition has zero chance of forming a majority government. They'll have to defy history to win more than 16 seats, but won't get close to 21 seats. I'd say they win somewhere 62-71 seats based on history.

Also, the only first term government to lose office in over 100 years was Labor in 1931 during The Great Depression.

The questions are, how many will both win, and how large will the cross bench be who will have to make a decision on who forms government. There is currently a cross bench of 16 in the Parliament...6 Teals, 4 Greens, Dai Le, Sharkie, Katter, Wilkie, Haines, and a defector (Andrew Gee) from the Coalition. One of the Teals seats has been abolished, and the Coalition defector will likely go back to the Nationals. There will be a challenge for 3 of those Green seats in Brisbane (from both major parties). I can't see the others changing.

I'd say it is likely the cross bench will decide who forms government after the next election, and not the Australian people.

EDIT - Actually there is a cross bench of 18...but I don't know who the other two are

 

[Chipmunk]

The far right in Australia have an incredibly hostile public service to deal with as well as a High Court with guts.

Australia’s deep state.

The Public Service is its own political force. They are disciples of woke and pretty much run the country anyway.

I think this is a very wrong perception out there that is very far removed from reality, particularly at the Federal level.

I agree as a generalisation they have very much become the disciples of woke, but no Federal public servant in the country does anything unless it is informed to do so by the government of the day.

Basically the way it works is the Federal government of the day informs the public service this is what it wants done, so come back and tell us how it will be done, so that we can then tell you to go and do it. Nothing gets thought about unless first directed to do so by the government of the day. This process doesn't change no matter which party is the government of the day.

The issue for public servants is that they just have to find a way to do whatever the government of the day has informed them they want done. You can see how all this played out with the Robodebt issue. No public servant would ever have made any of those decisions without being informed to do so by the government of the day.

 

[Avenger]

 

[The Silverdale Phantom]

I think this is a very wrong perception out there that is very far removed from reality, particularly at the Federal level.

I agree as a generalisation they have very much become the disciples of woke, but no Federal public servant in the country does anything unless it is informed to do so by the government of the day.

Basically the way it works is the Federal government of the day informs the public service this is what it wants done, so come back and tell us how it will be done, so that we can then tell you to go and do it. Nothing gets thought about unless first directed to do so by the government of the day. This process doesn't change no matter which party is the government of the day.

The issue for public servants is that they just have to find a way to do whatever the government of the day has informed them they want done. You can see how all this played out with the Robodebt issue. No public servant would ever have made any of those decisions without being informed to do so by the government of the day.

Thanks Chippy, quite a compelling argument with an excellent example.

I shall need to reconsider my stance.

 

[the phantom menace]

But you still think Labor has a mandate to do whatever it likes with only 33% of people voting for them?

Higher than the percentage vote achieved for any other (single) party.

 

[the phantom menace]

I can't see any result other than a minority government for either side at the next election. History would have to be defied for their to be a majority.

Yes, I tend to agree.

We've had a completely functional minority government (with stable cross bench support) not to long ago, being the Gillard government.

 

[Chipmunk]

Higher than the percentage vote achieved for any other (single) party.

You can only really say that if you consider that you have the option to vote for three of the parties (Liberal Party, National Party, and Liberal National Party) in each electorate, but this is not the case. In almost all electorates you only have the one choice of these three.

 

[Chipmunk]

Yes, I tend to agree.

We've had a completely functional minority government (with stable cross bench support) not to long ago, being the Gillard government.

Not sure it was completely functional at the time, as it did lead to the end of that government for almost a decade, as well as the political careers of two independents, at the following election. In that Parliament you also only had 1 Green, Katter, Wilkie, Oakeshot, and Windsor as the lower house cross bench too.

I think the cross bench result will likely be at least 4-7 Teals (who are all independent and potentially vote different ways if had to choose a government), 1-4 Greens, Katter, Sharkie, Wilkie, Haines, and Dai Lee. Lets say there is 15 independents, I think most, except for the Greens and Wilkie, would give their vote to the party that had the most seats out of Labor and the Coalition. If they had to choose a side (i.e. the Labor and Coalition seats are tied on 68 each if there is 15 independents), then Katter, Sharkie and Dai Lee will go for the Coalition, and Greens and Wilkie will go with Labor. Haines would likely be destined to the same outcome as Oakeshot and Windsor if she chose Labor, so would probably think about her own future and go Coalition (unless she thought this would be her last term anyway). That leaves the decision down to the 4-7 Teals. I can't see Monique Ryan voting for the Coalition, and if push came to shove I can't see Kate Chaney and Allegra Spendor not voting for the Coalition. The others are a bit of a lottery.

That to me says if is 68 seats a piece, then the Coalition and Labor would both have 74 votes, with the rest of the Teals to decide who forms government.