Fox Sports Lab: Winning the NRL premiership in April
Cliches about winning the NRL premiership in April will no doubt flow as the season kicks off. But as FOX SPORTS LAB uncovers, there is a kernel of truth to this old chestnut.
Fox Sports Lab
3 min read
March 8, 2022 - 12:00PM
A fast start to the season almost guarantees your club will make the finals. Picture: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images
It’s as regular as clockwork.
The first ball of the season is kicked off and your team is good. They dominate the ruck, score some sick tries and easily brush away the competition. Your new recruits are gelling with the tried-and-true stalwarts and your coach cracks a couple of jokes in the press conference.
It happens once. Twice. Three times. There’s a glint in your eye and a spring in your step. Could it be? Is this early season form going to translate into a finals appearance or if you dare to dream … the premiership?
The short answer is yes. The longer, more complicated answer is maybe.
There is no doubt a strong start to your season reflects on your ability to make the finals, and especially the top four. The below table, starting from 1999 (when the current run of top eight finals began) shows the number of times a team has had a win/draw from their first five games, and how many went on to play finals or win the premiership.
Source: Fox Sports Lab
The eventual premiers have won (or drawn) at least three of their first five games 18 times since 1999, with just five teams winning the title winning two wins or fewer.
The finals countdown
The Panthers started their 2021 campaign with five from five wins. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty Images
If the premiership is still too far in the distance, it’s handy to look at your club’s chance of making the finals if they start the season well.
To win the current NRL premiership, it’s pretty much a given you’ll have to finish in the top four. And to do so, you’ll have to win three of your first five games. Around half of the teams that have made the top four since 1999 have won/drawn four or five of their first five matches.
Taking into account the Bulldogs in 2002 and the Storm in 2010 (points stripped for salary cap cheating), more than 80 per cent of top four teams in that time have won at least three from five games.
Two wins from five season-opening games spells disaster for your club’s top four hopes.
Pretty much every team that has gone five from five has gone on to make the finals – except for one outlier, the Cowboys in 2006, who won their first six games of the season but finished ninth.
Source: Fox Sports Lab
The good, the bad and the ugly
It's not really a surprise the Storm are easily the best-starting team in the competition, winning three plus games 19 times, giving them a better than three win-average. The Roosters sit in second with 16. These two teams have won 10 of the 23 comps since 1999 and have made the grand final a further eight times*.
The Warriors have won just two games to start the season 15 times, which is one of the worst streaks in the league. They have made the finals just eight times in this 23-year time period, which is a reflection of how important it is to have a good start to the season.
The Cowboys have also struggled and have the worst average ‘good start’ to the season across the NRL, winning just 2.04 games of their first five.
But let’s not forget, anything is possible in rugby league. There is one team that overcame the odds to make the finals – the Wayne Bennett-coached Brisbane Broncos of 1999, who started 0-5 and recovered to meet the Sharks in the qualifying final (they lost 42-20).
The Broncos of 1999 recovered from a 0-6 start to make the qualifying final against the Sharks. Picture: NCA
Who to tip in Round 1
It’s not science but there are a few teams you can load up on to win their first game of the season.
The most obvious is the Melbourne Storm, who haven’t lost a first-round match-up in 15 years since the Titans entered the competition.
And it’s probably a good idea to steer clear of Manly!
The Storm and your tried-and-true best bet for a Round 1 win. Picture: Robert Cianflone/Getty Images
Source: Fox Sports Lab
