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Our Finals Chances.

GongPanther

Referee
Messages
28,676
If this side stays together they WILL win the comp. It's just a case of what year/s.

My concern is how we hang onto most of the side when contracts are close to running out.Of course there will be some who will find it very hard to resist the big carrots that will be dangled in front of them from other sources.

But as I recall,there was a period were we practically had quite a lot of the playing group on the same contract period end around the same time.
 

Pomoz

Bench
Messages
2,989
True. Crazy to think that if we lose our next two games, we could still miss the eight.
What really makes this unlikely is in round 26 the Cowboys play the Broncos. They would have to win that to relegate us to ninth. Their for/against is just too poor to keep us out, unless of course we are flogged by both Manly and St George then it is possible.

BTW if we were to make it on the back of two losses and better for and against, it is academic anyway. We will be cannon fodder.
 

Kilkenny

Coach
Messages
13,864
Obviously were not there yet but given our recent run of form I am optimistic we can continue on our winning way this weekend.

RCG and Tamou have been very good. Merrin in his first game back after a lay off I thought was outstanding against the Raiders and well Yeo and CHN they just deliever every week. Hoping JFH and Carty continue to improve given they have some minutes behind over the last two weeks. It would be great if Bryce can really find some form and fitness leading into the next couple of weeks and he could really be an x factor for us to take us to that next level.
 

maple_69

Bench
Messages
4,594
Yep Cartwright finding form would be a huge bonus. Moylan, Cleary and Cartwright are the three guys in this side that can Singlehandedly boss a game and we haven't seen near the best of two of them all year. One or ideally both of them finding form for the finals takes us from a tough team to beat to a legitimate dark horse.
 

tripster

Juniors
Messages
1,961
I will get in early before the next two games and say that regardless of whether we win or lose both, the club is in a good position. And the season has been successful. I will explain why.

For me the long term strategy has suddenly become as clear as day. Hook was brought in because in spite of his undoubted qualities, Cleary did not blood many juniors. He was very conservative. This last two seasons with Hook may have been frustrating at times but just look what has happened. Cleary, TMM,Edwards, Katoa, CHN, JFH, Kikau and now May have all been blooded. That never would have happened with Cleary.

That is eight players. More than half a team. The Knights and Tigers have struggled for those two years while we have quietly started building a team that is Penrith through and through and blooded more players than just about any other team. This has been completely lost in the seemingly never ending discussion about who should be 5/8th and whether Hook can coach.

I think there is also more to it than just blooding juniors because we have done that in the past and it hasn't always worked. The biggest single change from our club of old is that when these players debut, they look ready for it and not out of place. Gus reclaimed the reserve grade from St Marys and he got all three grades training in the same place. He got a proper training facility in place. They pillage the u20's even when a finals place is on the line so the kids get experience in NSW cup. They rotate them up and then put them back down again when they tire. When they debut, these kids are hitting the ground running, catch them if you can.

So here we are with a team with 12 of the 17 Penrith juniors and in spite of rebuilding u20's again, they are second and another group is in place.

We may lose both games and go out on our ear, but this club is in an amazing position right now. Only time will tell if Hook is the right man or not, but it doesn't matter. A new coach will be found and we will win a premiership. Patience is all.

Great post. The only thing I'd add to that is that Griffin is also good at coaching defence (and also appears to regard defence as one of the most important skills for a player to develop, ahead of attack or anything else).

Defence is traditionally an area that Penrith as a team has never been strong in, even if we have often had very capable attacking sides (if not all the time, at least on their day).

I have my own theory for why that is the case (feel free to tell me it is completely off the mark). Having watched the Panthers U20s and the junior grades back before there was an U20s, it always amazed me how skilled so many of the players were at scoring points, but I also noticed they never had much defensive grit or that much regard for the ball. However, because there was always a bunch of people in the team who could score points and overcome mistakes or defensive lapses, there was never really a need to develop much defensive discipline amongst the younger players. Admittedly defense isn't a strong trait in many juniors, but I felt like with the quality of the players in Penrith's junior ranks it also didn't really need to be.

The unfortunate consequence of that mindset is that it then, without a lot of coaching intervention, it followed the players through into first grade.

Griffin on the other hand I think emphasizes defence first and foremost (as well as discipline with the ball), which is something that I think is helping our juniors transition to first grade more effectively.

Also, to add to your list, I know that Blake and RCG didn't debut under Griffin, but he's undoubtedly improved their playing abilities incredibly. I used to cringe every time Blake took the ball up because you knew he was a good chance of dropping it - however, Blake has gone from a fringe first grader to one of the better centres. RCG also appears to have finally found his home coming off the bench.
 
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maple_69

Bench
Messages
4,594
I think Griffin also deserves a lot of credit for how he's timing our seasons. Regardless of how we've gone through this year or last, he has the team playing their best football when the whips are cracking and that is certainly not something we've seen from this club for a while. Middle third we traditionally hit top form and then die into the backend.
 

tripster

Juniors
Messages
1,961
Very interesting statistic mentioned on NRL.com in the game preview. I think it is a testament to our fitness more than anything.

Why the Panthers can win: They're priding themselves on their second-half performances. Penrith have conceded just nine tries in the final 20 minutes of games all season – a remarkable statistic when you consider the backend of a contest is where fatigue kicks in the most. Melbourne and Cronulla are the next best in that stat with 14 tries apiece so it gives a fair indication of how much the Panthers are containing the opposition with the game on the line and then finding the energy to deliver the killer blow. Penrith have scored 29 tries in the final 20 minutes of games this season – the best of any side in the Telstra Premiership – with Melbourne closely behind them on 27
 

betcats

Referee
Messages
23,956
Cleary did not blood many juniors. He was very conservative. This last two seasons with Hook may have been frustrating at times but just look what has happened. Cleary, TMM,Edwards, Katoa, CHN, JFH, Kikau and now May have all been blooded. That never would have happened with Cleary.

.

Why do you say that? It is completely wrong. Cleary blodded as many NYC grads in 2014 and 2015 as Hook has since arriving here.

Bryce, RCG, Yeo, DWZ, Waqa, Katoa, Rjennings, Gjennings off the top of my head, there are more I think. The players in bold were younger than 20 when they debuted.

Katoa debuted in 2015 FYI.
 

OldPanther

Coach
Messages
13,404
Why do you say that? It is completely wrong. Cleary blodded as many NYC grads in 2014 and 2015 as Hook has since arriving here.

Bryce, RCG, Yeo, DWZ, Waqa, Katoa, Rjennings, Gjennings off the top of my head, there are more I think. The players in bold were younger than 20 when they debuted.

Katoa debuted in 2015 FYI.

It is a reputation he's picked up among fans somehow. Not sure what started it.
 

betcats

Referee
Messages
23,956
It is a reputation he's picked up among fans somehow. Not sure what started it.

Short memories I guess.

Go back and look at our rosters from 2012 to now, they have changed a lot. Cleary had a lot more established first graders and journeymen on the rooster than we do now and we had no where the junior depth as we do now, we had a special group in 2013 but up until 2011 the juniors were f**ked and the production line was non-existent.

Not taking anything away from Hook and his development of the kids but to act like he bloods more kids than cleary is not correct at all.
 
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Pomoz

Bench
Messages
2,989
Short memories I guess.

Go back and look at our rosters from 2012 to now, they have changed a lot. Cleary had a lot more established first graders and journeymen on the rooster than we do now and we had no where the junior depth as we do now, we had a special group in 2013 but up until 2011 the juniors were f**ked and the production line was non-existent.

Not taking anything away from Hook and his development of the kids but to act like he bloods more kids than cleary is not correct at all.
You know what, that's fair enough. When he arrived we weren't exactly producing players by the truck load. And Cleary did average 4 new players a year and Hook is doing slightly more. Mind you, Cleary had that horror year in 2015 when he had to debut players because we had so many injuries. In fact, I think that year we had our 5/8th injured (Soward), then the replacement 5/8th (John) and then the replacement, replacement 5/8th (Smith). At that point my wife got my boots out of the attic and polished them in case I got a call.

I think the point of difference is Hook has showed more daring in picking players in spine positions on debut. Hooker, 5/8th, halfback and fullback is a pretty big risk and yet he has done that over the two years.
 

betcats

Referee
Messages
23,956
You know what, that's fair enough. When he arrived we weren't exactly producing players by the truck load. And Cleary did average 4 new players a year and Hook is doing slightly more. Mind you, Cleary had that horror year in 2015 when he had to debut players because we had so many injuries. In fact, I think that year we had our 5/8th injured (Soward), then the replacement 5/8th (John) and then the replacement, replacement 5/8th (Smith). At that point my wife got my boots out of the attic and polished them in case I got a call.

I think the point of difference is Hook has showed more daring in picking players in spine positions on debut. Hooker, 5/8th, halfback and fullback is a pretty big risk and yet he has done that over the two years.

I think most of it comes down to circumstance. The only debut we've had I don't think Ivan would of went for is Nathan.

The injuries point you have made is double sided, while it may of forced Ivan's hand at times it also stopped us from bringing guys in with the second tier cap issues we had over multiple seasons.

As for hook being more daring, I would agree though it's not as big a gap as you would think. Moseley started at hooker for us on debut, Yeo started at 18 in the centres on debut. Moylan at fb. Up until 2016 Wallace and Soward were by far the best halves on the roster and Seggy was the hooker, we had no juniors pushing for a debut in those positions besides Austin in 2013.

Anyway it doesn't matter, hook does bring the kids through better than most there's no denying that, I just think the club overall has been in a much better position to debut these kids the last two years and it was always the clubs stated intention since Gus arrived to be developing 80 percent of our squad internally. The 15/16 NYC squad was the most dominant NYC squad ever, Cleary, Ciraldo and Brennan deserve some credit along with Hook for getting those kids ready imo.
 
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Messages
21,880
I think Griffin also deserves a lot of credit for how he's timing our seasons. Regardless of how we've gone through this year or last, he has the team playing their best football when the whips are cracking and that is certainly not something we've seen from this club for a while. Middle third we traditionally hit top form and then die into the backend.

It's great to be playing well at the end of the season, but very rarely do teams that make late season runs win it all.

Consistency over an entire season is much more important.
 

tripster

Juniors
Messages
1,961
Top four is looking doubtful now.

We need two win both our remaining games, and either:

- Eels lose next week to Souths; or
- Sharks lose this week to the Roosters and lose next week to the Knights.

I don't see the Sharks losing to the Knights, so we really need to be cheering for Souths next week.
 

TheFrog

Coach
Messages
14,300
Top four is looking doubtful now.

We need two win both our remaining games, and either:

- Eels lose next week to Souths; or
- Sharks lose this week to the Roosters and lose next week to the Knights.

I don't see the Sharks losing to the Knights, so we really need to be cheering for Souths next week.
If the Roosters beat the Sharks, Parra are beaten and we win both games, we only need finish ahead of the Sharks on for and against. It's not essential that the Knights beat the Sharks but the margin might be critical.
 
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mxlegend99

Referee
Messages
23,327
Why would we want to be top 4? Face Storm week 1 and have our monentum and confidence crushed. No thanks.

Finish 5th and face Cowboys, Sea Eagles of Dragons... racking up our 10th win in a row to play the loser of a top 4 game in week 2. I think that's our best scenario for the finals TBH.

Thats if we win our next 2. Getting ahead of ourse lves really.
 

TheFrog

Coach
Messages
14,300
Why would we want to be top 4? Face Storm week 1 and have our monentum and confidence crushed. No thanks.
It's pretty unlikely now, but you play them in the 1 v 4 game, you don't have to play them again until the GF regardless of the result. Then in the second week you get a bottom 4 (ie winner of 5 v 8) side. I'm pretty confident we can compete against any other team still standing.
 

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