I think we will finish somewhere between 5th and 8th. My analysis and reasoning for thus:
* Ricky Stuart, for all his criticism, has always excelled in two key areas: team spirit and defence. We showed in 2012 that we were a side capable of piling on points - we were just inconsistent at doing so, and our defence was so bad it put more pressure on us to score a try off a "hail mary" play every play (and statistically, we were doomed to fail).
Working on getting the team feeling closer and stiffening up our defence will be a tremendous boost.
* I think the weakest aspect of our squad is our pack. We have a decent front row rotation with Tim Mannah, Darcy Lussick, Fuifui Moimoi (although he is aging), Mitchell Allgood and [hopefully] Peni Terepo. Matt Keating is unpopular here but he will do his job - all we need at hooker is a player with some creative spark to come on after 20 minutes or so to capitalise on tired defences (and I think Nathan Smith is not the guy, although we are out of options, and so he will likely get the nod).
Our back-row has a lot of work-horses (Ben Smith, Daniel Harrison, Matt Ryan), one genuinely creative player (Joseph Paulo) and a guy in Reni Maitua that plays a role somewhere in between. In my opinion, we lack a ball-running, tackle-breaking, line-busting back-rower.
However, if things to well, any number of things might go our way to change that:
- I still believe Jacob Loko will end up in the back-row; he's too big and dangerous a ball-runner to "waste" out in the centres, especially when we have Ryan Morgan, Cheyse Blair and Willie Tonga as options there. Jacob Loko would be a perfect back-rower - bigger than Jamal Idris and with a bit of speed, he'd provide that wide-running, line-breaking option out wide we crave. And defending at second-row, with a quality centre and prop either side of him (for example, Tonga and Mannah) would help his defensive game.
- Pauli Pauli, Chad MacGill, Kelepi Tanginoa, Frazer Masinamua. They are all very young and perhaps long shots. But if any one of these guys gets a nod, we are in for a treat. Pauli Pauli, Tanginoa and Masinamua are all explosive. MacGill reminds me very much of a Paul Gallen - big motor. But each one of these guys would provide variety to our back-row.
* Jarryd Hayne. I don't think I need to go into detail, but suffice it to say - if he stays fit and plays a handful of matches, we will always be competitive. His stats in 2012 were phenomenal, and especially considering he missed out on so much of the season. Jarryd is a real, real weapon.
* Sandow and Kelly. We didn't see much of Kelly, but what we did see I liked. He didn't create any line-break assists, but he did show composure and great vision in setting up tries. He also tended to take the right option at the right time. In my view, he complements Sandow's natural game perfectly - we can rely on Chris and Jarryd to break games wide open, and on Luke to take the settling options and guide us around the park. Luke Kelly will probably never be a superstar, but he will be a more than capable, solid First Grade player than any team would be happy to have IMO (and especially teams such as ours with a very talented but erratic halfback).
* The age of our squad. I am not going to point fingers or crucify anyone, but our squad is on the rise and a new dawn is coming. Our "golden oldies" have left after a mixed period, and blokes like Jarryd Hayne, Chris Sandow, Ryan Morgan, Cheyse Blair, Tim Mannah, Ken Sio, the back-rowers mentioned above, Peni Terepo, Darcy Lussick, etc. are the future of this squad. We have a genuine chance to start from scratch, and it's a very motivating factor IMO.
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