Penalty Differentials

[Cockadoodledoo]

Its not 15^15. Its closer to 2^15 or 2^(however many games the roosters have played since 2013). Stop being so dramatic.

Where did you pull 2 to power of 15 from? Failed maths eh?

 

[Cockadoodledoo]

It's simple, ref roosters like everyone else, if they repeatedly offend send players to the bin for 10 minutes. But this would dramatically change the way they play, and roosters fans would be aching back for the days when the refs seemingly picked on them. Be careful what you ask for roosters fans and ask yourself why Robinson and co don't make such a fuss atm about the refs seemingly having it out for you's.

The club knows, Robbo has too much class to whinge, unlike guys like Toovey, Bellamy and Hasler.

 

[Cockadoodledoo]

You realise every possible outcome in this scenario has an equal chance of a 1 in 437,893,890,380,859,000 shot.... right? I don't know what blog or twitter or whatever you've been reading this shit from but it's a very silly argument to make. Speaking from a pure chance point of view this is no different to rolling two dice or however many die where every possible roll has an equal chance.

I agree that the original statistic you posted is fairly remarkable (silly chance/odds nonsense aside) although not as remarkable as the statistics over a longer period of time with different players and coaches etc. Roosters definitely get a raw deal in the penalty department.

There is a 437,893,890,858,999/437,893,890,858,000 that the scenario would be different. Slightly heavier odds eh?

 

[Meapro Ham]

Refs are human. If you give away a ridiculous amount of penalties (like the Roosters do), they're going to undoubtedly take a bit of a rest mentally when you have the ball.

Don't give away so many penalties and they'll receive more.

It's become a huge myth that Roosters give away a heap of penalties. It's not like that at all. Just a myth perpetrated by people who probably don't even watch the games. They do arguably concede a few penalties occasionally when defending their own line. Other than that they're no different to everyone else.

 

[Benny77]

Refs are human. If you give away a ridiculous amount of penalties (like the Roosters do), they're going to undoubtedly take a bit of a rest mentally when you have the ball.

Don't give away so many penalties and they'll receive more.

It's funny because the roosters have conceded less penalties than the rabbitohs this year yet received 19 less so that argument doesn't work at all

 

[Babyface O'reilly]

It's become a huge myth that Roosters give away a heap of penalties. It's not like that at all. Just a myth perpetrated by people who probably don't even watch the games. They do arguably concede a few penalties occasionally when defending their own line. Other than that they're no different to everyone else.

I remember they were looking at the Roosters penalty stats on the Matty Johns show mid last year and they revealed that the Roosters were giving away more penalties in the opposition's half; effectively giving their opponents a piggy back up the field. So there was another myth blown.

 

[POPEYE]

The club knows, Robbo has too much class to whinge, unlike guys like Toovey, Bellamy and Hasler.

Now you're grasping at straws

 

[Lambretta]

Refs are human. If you give away a ridiculous amount of penalties (like the Roosters do), they're going to undoubtedly take a bit of a rest mentally when you have the ball.

Don't give away so many penalties and they'll receive more.

I am sick to death of people repeating this and believing it's true

The Roosters do not concede more penalties than anyone else

So far this year our average penalties conceded is 7.57 per game

Of the teams we have played we have lost 6 penalty counts and drawn one

Those teams averages by the time they PLAYED the Roosters were

North Queensland n/a
Souths 10 (Roosters were averaging 7 at this point)
Penrith 8 (Roosters were averaging 7.33 at this point)
Canberra 8 (Roosters were averaging 7.25 at this point)
Cronulla 6.25 (Roosters were averaging 7 at this point)
Brisbane 7.4 (Roosters were averaging 7.33 at this point)
Melbourne 8 (Roosters are now averaging 7.57 at this point)

So our average penalties conceded per game were actually LOWER than every club we'd played (apart from Cronulla) by the time we played them. Yet as soon as we played them, they cleaned up their acts

Now look at their behaviour in and around the weeks these teams played us by looking at the penalties they concede the week before and the week after they play us

North Queensland WA 6 - against Roosters? 2
Souths WB 10, WA 9 - against Roosters? 4
Penrith WB 7, WA 11 - against Roosters? 5
Canberra WB 11, WA 7 - against Roosters 6
Brisbane WB 7, WA 5 - against Roosters 5
Melbourne, WB 6, against Roosters 6

This record has to break this week as St George only conceded 3 penalties this week, so it's hard to think they'll concede fewer than that on Anzac Day

But this pattern isn't just a truism for this season - it's been going on year after year for about 15 years.

 

[Cockosh]

And just to prove this is a longer term trend against us there were 6 games in 2014 where we did not get a 2nd half penalty. There were 4 games where received just 1. 9 games where we got only 2. That is 19 of our 27 games.

For those saying it's because we give away to many, there are currently 4 teams who have given away more than us this year yet they don't have the same issue.

 

[GAZF]

Where did you pull 2 to power of 15 from? Failed maths eh?

Where did you pull 15^15 from. Is there only a 1 in 15 chance that the Roosters SHOULD lose the penalty count every game?

 

[POPEYE]

I am sick to death of people repeating this and believing it's true

The Roosters do not concede more penalties than anyone else

So far this year our average penalties conceded is 7.57 per game

Of the teams we have played we have lost 6 penalty counts and drawn one

Those teams averages by the time they PLAYED the Roosters were

North Queensland n/a
Souths 10 (Roosters were averaging 7 at this point)
Penrith 8 (Roosters were averaging 7.33 at this point)
Canberra 8 (Roosters were averaging 7.25 at this point)
Cronulla 6.25 (Roosters were averaging 7 at this point)
Brisbane 7.4 (Roosters were averaging 7.33 at this point)
Melbourne 8 (Roosters are now averaging 7.57 at this point)

So our average penalties conceded per game were actually LOWER than every club we'd played (apart from Cronulla) by the time we played them. Yet as soon as we played them, they cleaned up their acts

Now look at their behaviour in and around the weeks these teams played us by looking at the penalties they concede the week before and the week after they play us

North Queensland WA 6 - against Roosters? 2
Souths WB 10, WA 9 - against Roosters? 4
Penrith WB 7, WA 11 - against Roosters? 5
Canberra WB 11, WA 7 - against Roosters 6
Brisbane WB 7, WA 5 - against Roosters 5
Melbourne, WB 6, against Roosters 6

This record has to break this week as St George only conceded 3 penalties this week, so it's hard to think they'll concede fewer than that on Anzac Day

But this pattern isn't just a truism for this season - it's been going on year after year for about 15 years.

If you could chart where on the field, the state of the game and what difference penalties can be credited for causing you might garner a lot more support. If you leave it to people to believe Roosters players aren't listening to their coach or mentally geniused no-one will give a shit

 

[BranVan3000]

I'd like to see the stats on how many penalties are being blown in second halves. I bet the Roosters are so undisciplined they are giving away what two teams combined normally would. Everybody else looks like saints by comparison

 

[Benny77]

I'd like to see the stats on how many penalties are being blown in second halves. I bet the Roosters are so undisciplined they are giving away what two teams combined normally would. Everybody else looks like saints by comparison

Rabbitohs have given away more penalties than roosters this year. LOL

 

[Meapro Ham]

If you could chart where on the field, the state of the game and what difference penalties can be credited for causing you might garner a lot more support. If you leave it to people to believe Roosters players aren't listening to their coach or mentally geniused no-one will give a shit

Its about the penalties they don't receive dude. Its not about the penalties they concede and their discipline (although that's been proved to be no different to everyone else). You don't seem to be getting it.

 

[BranVan3000]

Rabbitohs have given away more penalties than roosters this year. LOL

I should write an article

 

[Meapro Ham]

Where did you pull 15^15 from. Is there only a 1 in 15 chance that the Roosters SHOULD lose the penalty count every game?

I think you are misunderstanding the stat. The stat is that since 2013 every team has conceded less penalties against the Roosters than any other team.

The correct calculation I think would be one in 15, to the power of 15. Whatever it is its pretty bloody unlikely.

 

[yobbo84]

So which is it - are the refs incompetent or are they somehow pulling off a large-scale systematic cheating scandal?

 

[Liddell]

Rabbitohs have given away more penalties than roosters this year. LOL

Clearly some kind of conspiracy.

Let's go crying to buzz.

 

[GAZF]

I think you are misunderstanding the stat. The stat is that since 2013 every team has conceded less penalties against the Roosters than any other team.

The correct calculation I think would be one in 15, to the power of 15. Whatever it is its pretty bloody unlikely.

Ah ok, probably shouldn't have just breezed in and read the last page. Any idea on how total penalties blown for either side deviates from the average? That would skew the odds a bit.

Where did you pull 2 to power of 15 from? Failed maths eh?

Not maths but I guess I failed reading and comprehension :lol:. Apologies.

 

[Babyface O'reilly]

That is basically a word for word copy of some of the posts in this thread, you guys should send him an invoice.

Like the posts in this thread though its based on the logic "all penalty counts should be equal", an no more in depth analysis is being entered into.

I am happy that one club has taken over the "it's a conspiracy against us mantle" though.

Although I do note that this time its being given a lot more weight by the Sydney press and fellow LUers.

I think the Cowboys got a fair write up after the semis in 2013-14. Roosters finally get an article after ten years of bias officiating. Unfortunately it's Rothfield, so no one at NRL HQ will take it seriously.