QLD doesn't need another team

[flippikat]

Surely they would go with Canberra over QLD 3.. or maybe they are keeping that option open for a fully relocated GWS if needed.

Where in QLD did it mention? It'll be a sad day if they get in a 2nd Brisbane day before us.

https://www.nospam47.com/au/afl/new...2023-dwayne-russell/g6ubbyzkofhc1mcf7lgcr9xy7

The article mentions a 3rd Queensland team towards the end, but no specifics as to where in Queensland. I think the idea is daft, when they have Canberra and a 3rd WA team as very strong candidates for a 20th AFL club.

If Tasmania join the league next, then the Hawks & Kangaroos will break loose of their current Tasmanian arrangements - and can look at other places to take some home games.

Places that can't concievably have their own AFL teams right now - Maybe Cairns, maybe Townsville, maybe even Newcastle or Woolongong. That's just how they spread their game. Canny stuff.

 

[The Great Dane]

The AFL is really interesting, because if you keep your ear to the ground and listen to the talk the consensus is that they are looking to expand to 22 teams in the next decade or so, which considering the current standard of their comp seems like utter madness just on the face of it. God knows where the players for four more clubs are going to come from when the lower half of their current comp isn't even close to competitive with the top half.

But here's the thing, the three main potential markets that seem feasible to me are Tasmania, Canberra, and a third Perth club, but they've ruled out Canberra because it's "GWS territory" (news I responded to with a giant I told you so), and in my opinion a third Perth team will almost certainly largely cannibalise Dockers and Eagles support.

But aside from those three their fans (and it seems people in power as well) are seriously considering places like NZ, Newcastle, Sydney, Cairns, Brisbane, and the Northern bloody Territory as potential markets, all of which seems like crack pot pie in the sky stuff to me.

So yeah it's interesting times over in AFL land.

 

[Perth Red]

Will be 15 years or so until a third perth team, by the population will be well over 3mill. Having said that eagles still have over 5000 fans who can’t get full memberships even with the new stadium capacity.

 

[MrE_Assassin]

Tasmania, yes, which is about as attractive to broadcasters as eating dogshit.

It seems like auskick is scrambling. It knows that broadcasters overpaid, which is why it's trying to extend its broadcasting deal by an extra two years, and trying to create another timeslot by adding another game through two new teams. The only reason they're going to Tasmania is because they're tapped out. Nowhere else to go.

The NRL, should it opt to expand, has two of Australia's five largest markets to consider.

The NRL is walking to the next negotiation in a much stronger position than auskick.



So you're pointing to a competition that is on its knees as an example that the NRL should expand?

My point is exactly that though. Here you have competitions that aren’t exactly nation-dominating or in essence are struggling and they are putting forward expansion, yet the NRL can’t even make its mind up on what side to get out of bed let alone whether it wants to expand or not.

By the time the NRL decides it wants to expand, every other sporting code will have taken up the markets that the NRL could have been in much earlier, essentially squeezing the NRL out of the market all together.

 

[mongoose]

surely the AFL would relocate Victorian clubs rather than add new ones? I don't watch AFL but I check the scores and teams seem to be getting beat by 100 on a regular basis (its like losing by 50 in NRL). I wouldn't put it past the AFL to seriously compromise the quality of their comp for some false perception that they have "taken over" all of Australia.

 

[Perth Red]

surely the AFL would relocate Victorian clubs rather than add new ones? I don't watch AFL but I check the scores and teams seem to be getting beat by 100 on a regular basis (its like losing by 50 in NRL). I wouldn't put it past the AFL to seriously compromise the quality of their comp for some false perception that they have "taken over" all of Australia.

Reality is they already have the footprint they want. You can’t run an afl team in a new regional city, it’s too expensive. They have all the main cities locked up now and won’t be expanding for a very long time.

If the nrl do t take advantage of the current WA’s Govt keenness on having a perth club then they are crazy or totally incompetent. Looking at how the wa Govt is supporting nrl events here now is the time to be locking them in to long term commitments to a new nrl club.

 

[flippikat]

Reality is they already have the footprint they want. You can’t run an afl team in a new regional city, it’s too expensive. They have all the main cities locked up now and won’t be expanding for a very long time.

If the nrl do t take advantage of the current WA’s Govt keenness on having a perth club then they are crazy or totally incompetent. Looking at how the wa Govt is supporting nrl events here now is the time to be locking them in to long term commitments to a new nrl club.

Precisely. The AFL are lucky in that 3 of the big 5 state capitals (Melbourne, Perth & Adelaide) are AFL heartland cities, compared to 2 for the rugby codes (Sydney & Brisbane) - so they could bypass all the medium-sized markets that the NSWRL/ARL expanded to between 1982 & 1995 (Illawarra Steelers, Canberra Raiders, Newcastle Knights, NQ Cowboys), and focus on getting derbies in the big cities.

The only medium-sized "one team town" market in AFL heartland is Geelong - and that's only by quirk of them being part of the old VFL premiership, and carrying that presence through to the modern AFL.

 

[Perth Red]

Precisely. The AFL are lucky in that 3 of the big 5 state capitals (Melbourne, Perth & Adelaide) are AFL heartland cities, compared to 2 for the rugby codes (Sydney & Brisbane) - so they could bypass all the medium-sized markets that the NSWRL/ARL expanded to between 1982 & 1995 (Illawarra Steelers, Canberra Raiders, Newcastle Knights, NQ Cowboys), and focus on getting derbies in the big cities.

The only medium-sized "one team town" market in AFL heartland is Geelong - and that's only by quirk of them being part of the old VFL premiership, and carrying that presence through to the modern AFL.

Also is the fact that there is no significant sized regional cities in the afl states. Nsw and Qland are quite unique in having some largish regional cities/regions of 300k plus. For example WA doesn’t have any regional cities/areas over 100k people.

 

[flippikat]

Also is the fact that there is no significant sized regional cities in the afl states. Nsw and Qland are quite unique in having some largish regional cities/regions of 300k plus. For example WA doesn’t have any regional cities/areas over 100k people.

Now you mention it, that's a really good point of difference too. If WA/SA had decent sized "second cities" (and Vic a 3rd city after Melbourne & Geelong), it would have made the AFLs expansion decisions very interesting indeed!

 

[greenBV4]

Now you mention it, that's a really good point of difference too. If WA/SA had decent sized "second cities" (and Vic a 3rd city after Melbourne & Geelong), it would have made the AFLs expansion decisions very interesting indeed!

Exception to that is probably Tasmania, Hobart isn't much smaller than Wollongong, and Tassie as a whole has a bigger population than Newcastle, and it is staunch AFL territory but have been shafted for a team

 

[titoelcolombiano]

The AFL have rocks in their head if they are going to add more teams. They are seriously struggling for the top level talent to go around the current 18 clubs plus their strategy for the last few decades has been to stick to major capital city markets.

If they start getting desperate and going to Tassie and / or oversaturating Perth or Queensland, they will quickly find themselves in the position we were in, in 1998 (minus the war) where rationalisation of Melbourne and some non-feasable expansion clubs will need to be done just to stabalise the ship.

Having said all of that, I hope they do it. It would be nice watching them implode just as RL finally (hopefully) starts expanding again.

 

[blue bags]

Has Queensland got enough NRL franchise's now? Or Brisbane 3 needed
Queensland has 4 teams now
Do Queensland need 5 teams ?
Or 4 is enough

 

[RL The greatest game]

Has Queensland got enough NRL franchise's now? Or Brisbane 3 needed
Queensland has 4 teams now
Do Queensland need 5 teams ?
Or 4 is enough

Brisbane 3 and the PNG NRL team based in Cairns ties up Queensland for the NRL.

 

[cinders7]

Has Queensland got enough NRL franchise's now? Or Brisbane 3 needed
Queensland has 4 teams now
Do Queensland need 5 teams ?
Or 4 is enough

There was an interesting post on another forum years ago about how the NRL had divided the SEQ market into quarters: Bris City, the GC, Northern Corridor, Western Corridor.

A team covering the western corridor is needed within the decade and I think it's obvious to everyone at every level of the game. That would do well to cover the market without eating into the existing clubs.

We will only have 22 or at most 24 clubs in the comp.
As much as I'd personally like to see the Jets, Tigers and Falcons all promoted to the NRL, they'll be competing directly against clubs in PER/ADL/NZ2/PNG/NZ3/MEL2 for one of the five (or at most seven) remaining slots.

 

[mongoose]

There was an interesting post on another forum years ago about how the NRL had divided the SEQ market into quarters: Bris City, the GC, Northern Corridor, Western Corridor.

A team covering the western corridor is needed within the decade and I think it's obvious to everyone at every level of the game. That would do well to cover the market without eating into the existing clubs.

We will only have 22 or at most 24 clubs in the comp.
As much as I'd personally like to see the Jets, Tigers and Falcons all promoted to the NRL, they'll be competing directly against clubs in PER/ADL/NZ2/PNG/NZ3/MEL2 for one of the five (or at most seven) remaining slots.

its a dumb idea pushed by Sydney people who don't get that the Broncos have covered every corner of Brisbane and southern QLD for that matter for 30 years.

 

[cinders7]

The AFL have rocks in their head if they are going to add more teams. They are seriously struggling for the top level talent to go around the current 18 clubs plus their strategy for the last few decades has been to stick to major capital city markets.

If they start getting desperate and going to Tassie and / or oversaturating Perth or Queensland, they will quickly find themselves in the position we were in, in 1998 (minus the war) where rationalisation of Melbourne and some non-feasable expansion clubs will need to be done just to stabalise the ship.

Having said all of that, I hope they do it. It would be nice watching them implode just as RL finally (hopefully) starts expanding again.

I agree with you however the AFL has more money than they know what to do with, and they know QLD & NSW are the growth states. They're in a tricky place as all of their expansion options will be small market teams & make their comp weaker no matter who they decide on (Tasmania, Canberra, PER3).

If the Gabba rebuild did go ahead and BNE had a 60K seat shiny new cricket stadium in 2032 I'd guarantee that the AFL would do everthing in its power to have a second BNE team there. It's why they made so much fuss about the change in plans.

They've shown time and time again that their competition has no integrity but the AFL media and majority of the fans don't call them out on it. They'd manufacture the Bad News Bears into four grand finals in a row (again), make some statement about QLD turning into an AFL state and they'd have a another fusion reactor in their comp.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

I agree with you however the AFL has more money than they know what to do with, and they know QLD & NSW are the growth states. They're in a tricky place as all of their expansion options will be small market teams & make their comp weaker no matter who they decide on (Tasmania, Canberra, PER3).

If the Gabba rebuild did go ahead and BNE had a 60K seat shiny new cricket stadium in 2032 I'd guarantee that the AFL would do everthing in its power to have a second BNE team there. It's why they made so much fuss about the change in plans.

They've shown time and time again that their competition has no integrity but the AFL media and majority of the fans don't call them out on it. They'd manufacture the Bad News Bears into four grand finals in a row (again), make some statement about QLD turning into an AFL state and they'd have a another fusion reactor in their comp.

The good thing is that the Gabba is in a difficult spot, hemmed in by two major inner city streets and a heritage listed school. It's way too expensive to knock down and rebuild and can't really expand in size, hence the abandonment of the plan for it to be the Olympic Stadium. Once it reaches the end of its useful life, probably shortly after the Olympics it will most likely either be demolished and turned into an indoor arena (more appropriate sized venue for the footprint) or be upgraded but scaled back to a boutique sized venue (less likely option).

That leaves the QLD government with the task of building an oval for Cricket and Victorian fumbleball which could very well mean the long talked about upgrade of the Showgrounds at Bowen Hills. Any future oval though will never have a bigger capacity than Suncorp as a) Suncorp has more tenants and more events that require a larger capacity b) Suncorp is the pride of QLD when it comes to stadiums at that will always be the case. c) neither VFL or Cricket can justify a 60k stadium.

On a second Brisbane VFL team, they may try it in the future but it would be a disaster worse than GWS... The Lions are hot right now and get significant crowd boosts from the expat fans of the big Melbourne clubs and still only managed to average 27k last year. There support is so niche here that their TV ratings often only just outstrip the crowd figures at the Gabba.

They are languishing at the bottom this year and if that continues into next year they will quickly return to sub 20k averages like they did in most of the 2010s. If that's how the Fitzroy Lions go after pretending to be a Brisbane team for 30 years, how would a second team go? It would be so bad I actually hope they waste money on it.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

https://www.nospam47.com/au/afl/new...2023-dwayne-russell/g6ubbyzkofhc1mcf7lgcr9xy7

Places that can't concievably have their own AFL teams right now - Maybe Cairns, maybe Townsville, maybe even Newcastle or Woolongong. That's just how they spread their game. Canny ststuff.

All of these options would be a disaster. This shows the weakness of their game. Other than Victoria their heartlands don't have big populations. Hence the desperation to be relevant in NSW and QLD.

They did well taking advantage of the SL war, but RL is fighting back now and won't allow our game to suffer in our heartlands any more.

AFL has peaked and are now just placing teams in unviable locations or in locations that don't want a team.

 

[flippikat]

All of these options would be a disaster. This shows the weakness of their game. Other than Victoria their heartlands don't have big populations. Hence the desperation to be relevant in NSW and QLD.

They did well taking advantage of the SL war, but RL is fighting back now and won't allow our game to suffer in our heartlands any more.

AFL has peaked and are now just placing teams in unviable locations or in locations that don't want a team.

Spot on, the NRL has far more viable expansion options right now than AFL, and many of the bigger population options for AFL run the risk of really just cannibalizing existing teams' support.

We still have Perth & Adelaide "up our sleeve" as options, and NZ2 - especially if it's Christchurch based, well away from Auckland - which will have minimal erosion of active fanbase from other NRL teams.

All we need is a strategy on how we get to 20 (or even 22) & will to do it.

 

[RL The greatest game]

https://www.nospam47.com/au/afl/new...2023-dwayne-russell/g6ubbyzkofhc1mcf7lgcr9xy7

The article mentions a 3rd Queensland team towards the end, but no specifics as to where in Queensland. I think the idea is daft, when they have Canberra and a 3rd WA team as very strong candidates for a 20th AFL club.

If Tasmania join the league next, then the Hawks & Kangaroos will break loose of their current Tasmanian arrangements - and can look at other places to take some home games.

Places that can't concievably have their own AFL teams right now - Maybe Cairns, maybe Townsville, maybe even Newcastle or Woolongong. That's just how they spread their game. Canny stuff.

You can't have a AFL club in Cairns with the climate up there.
Many games would be postponed