Warriors v Sea Eagles preview
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
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Just a week ago you would have fielded long odds about these two teams facing off as last-round losers.
But following shock losses to the Raiders and, to a lesser extent the Rabbitohs, the Warriors and Sea Eagles now find themselves having to regroup to get their premiership assaults back on track.
Another loss here would seriously dent the confidences and give rivals who had previously feared both sides more than a sniff heading into the business end of the comp.
The Warriors arguably have more to lose they are desperate for a home final and need to win their remaining two games to have a chance, having managed just a point from a draw against the Roosters in round 21 and dropping to sixth after the loss to the Raiders.
They are in good form, having recorded just one loss in their past six games.
But worryingly they have beaten the Sea Eagles at Mt Smart Stadium just once in seven attempts.
But the crowd will be up for this one Wairangi Koopu becomes only the fourth player to reach 150 games for the Warriors, while Epalahame Lauaki plays his 50th game.
Manlys loss ended a seven-game winning streak which saw them being heralded as likely grand final contenders.
Their home final and second place is guaranteed, so the only thing they risk here is inflicting self doubt.
Matt Orfords return will be welcomed; Manly missed his crisp tactical skills and kicking game and his presence will allow Michael Monaghan, who filled in last week, more latitude.
Watch out Warriors: The Sea Eagles jump out of the blocks like no other NRL side they have been the first scorer in 18 of their 22 games this season, including their past 13 straight.
Watch out Sea Eagles: After being a late withdrawal last week Wade McKinnon returns to fullback. His clash with Brett Stewart should be a bottler. Both are excitement machines, with McKinnon largely responsible for the Warriors awesome counter-attack.
McKinnon averages 12.4 metres a run back from opposition kicks (second by just 10cm behind Kangaroos fullback Karmichael Hunt). He also ranks second for tackle breaks (143) behind Matt Bowen. The Sea Eagles have got to get a good kick chase together and shut him down.
Where it will be won: Field position. Manly has made the second-most metres of all teams this season with an average 1,430 a game with Anthony Watmough (3,092 metres, fourth in the NRL), Brett Stewart (2,941 for sixth) and Brent Kite (2,713) leading the way.
The Warriors arent far behind, in third position with 1,411 per game.
Theyre led by the NRLs most relentless metre-eater in Steven Price (3,849 metres at an average 203 a game).
Incredibly though, they were out-done by the 14th-ranked territory gainers the Raiders last week (1,440 metres to 1,151).
They cant afford another low-intensity game against the Sea Eagles.
Similarly, Manly thrive on keeping the pressure on their opponents.
But as with the Warriors, things didnt go according to plan in their game against the Rabbitohs and too often they found themselves buried inside their half on fifth-tackle plays, with only average kicks ensuring they were put under plenty of constant defensive pressure. Whichever side gets their roll back on track will go a long way towards ensuring victory.
The History: Played 12; Warriors 5, Sea Eagles 7. Honours are even four games apiece from their past eight clashes, although the Sea Eagles have won the past two.
And the visitors wont be worried about crossing the Tasman they have won their past three games played against the Warriors at Mt Smart Stadium, and in 1998 inflicted their biggest ever defeat on the Kiwis there (38-12).
Conclusion: Some things to watch out for: The Warriors need to monitor the Manly dummy-half runners close to their line theyve let in three tries in this manner this year, while the Sea Eagles have scored four
Although the Sea Eagles have had the second fewest tries from kicks scored against them (11), they were found out by the Rabbitohs, with Fetuli Talanoas try from a deft kick into the in-goal on just the second tackle winning the game; look for Ivan Cleary to do the same early in the game to sow the seeds of doubt in the Sea Eagles outside backs
Finally, containing second-phase will be crucial this game matches the two best offloading outfits in the comp with the Warriors totalling 319 to the Sea Eagles 314.
Whatever the result, its bound to be entertaining.
Match officials: Referee Paul Simpkins; Sideline Officials Adam Devcich & Russell Turner; Video ref Chris Ward.
Televised: Fox Sports 3 Live 12pm.
* Statistics: NRL Stats.
