Rd10: 6.25pm EELS v Titans GAME DAY THREAD @ Suncorp 7/5/23

[King-Gutho94]

Have we won a game yet in magic round?

Maybe we should rename it, tragic round.

Yeah we did in 2021

BA was crying he couldn't believe we won.

 

[IFR33K]

At least it was a good loss, we’ll get ‘em next time.

Don’t forget the bad luck bit…

 

[84 Baby]

Sure, but the point is Davey had to leave that gap to cover Fifita. With only 12 defenders we were caught short in the middle, which drew Davey infield. Our only hope of stopping that try was for Penisini and Dunster to come in together at just the right time and for the Titans to get it wrong. Unlikely with Foran's old head.

My point was I don’t know where Davey’s missed tackle was but that should be a missed tackle for Davey. But also that not all missed tackles are created equal

 

[84 Baby]

No different from hindyeleven's examples of good luck. But also, every time the ball hits the deck there is an element of randomness, as well as every referee call or non-call. You can't pretend the game is 100% deterministic. So with that randomness factor it's unlikely the good and bad luck will cancel out to exactly zero every game.

But really when we’re talking about luck it’s about things happening in contrast to their likelihood and control of a player/team.
Success/failure in any given situation in sport is significantly based around a player/s FRONTLOADING EFFORT to reduce the impact of uncertainty or being the best adaptable to a change in circumstances.
Gutho getting into a suitable position turned the required luck from the ball bouncing a poofteenth one way or the other, to just requiring it not to bounce straight up a foot into Campbell’s hands or something even less likely making the luck element even less relevant. My view is Gutho doing that effort takes the play out of lucky territory and into personal effort.
But I guess we could always argue it was lucky he thought to put that effort in

 

[hybrideel]

This year is looking a lot like 2018. We lost by 2 around 6 times that year.

Lost 5 by <=6 (2 by <=2)
Won 3 by <=6 (1 by <=2)

 

[TheParraboy]

Lost 2 by <=6 (2 by <=2)
Won 3 by <=6 (1 by <=2)

I like the second line a bit better..

 

[hybrideel]

I like the second line a bit better..

Typo, it was:
Lost 5 by <=6 (2 by <=2)
Won 3 by <=6 (1 by <=2)

 

[TheParraboy]

Typo, it was:
Lost 5 by <=6 (2 by <=2)
Won 3 by <=6 (1 by <=2)

Im gonna stick solid second line still being better..

 

[forward pass]

Only the Broncos have scored more tries than us. By all means shit on our defence but if you think our attack is the problem your stats are painted on.

..and Roosters and Storm.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

What?

 

[forward pass]

What?

I thought you were referring to our matches this year.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Nah I meant over the 10 rounds so far. The Broncos have scored 47 tries while four teams (including Parra) have scored 43. The Sharks have only played nine games though, so they are technically best and we are equal third. Next best (in 6th place) are the Titans who have scored 36 in 9 games.

After ten rounds:

Team	Tries per game
Cronulla	4.78
Brisbane	4.7
Parramatta, Souths, Redcliffe	4.3
Gold Coast	4
St George	3.78
Newcastle	3.67
Penrith	3.56
Melbourne	3.44
Canberra	3.33
New Zealand	3.2
Manly	3.11
Canterbury	2.9
Easts	2.78
North Queensland	2.7
Wests	2.67

 

[the phantom menace]

Nah I meant over the 10 rounds so far. The Broncos have scored 47 tries while four teams (including Parra) have scored 43. The Sharks have only played nine games though, so they are technically best and we are equal third. Next best (in 6th place) are the Titans who have scored 36 in 9 games.

After ten rounds:

Team	Tries per game
Cronulla	4.78
Brisbane	4.7
Parramatta, Souths, Redcliffe	4.3
Gold Coast	4
St George	3.78
Newcastle	3.67
Penrith	3.56
Melbourne	3.44
Canberra	3.33
New Zealand	3.2
Manly	3.11
Canterbury	2.9
Easts	2.78
North Queensland	2.7
Wests	2.67

I just realised this could've gone in the stats thread! Mods, make it happen ffs

 

[forward pass]

Back to my post, only twice this year have our opposition scored more tries than us in normal time. Remarkable we aren’t top 4! I think we’ve lost 3 games on goal kicking.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

We are top five for points differential, which is a better indicator of a team's quality than ladder position, especially when teams have had an unequal number of byes. The team in third place has one more win than we do.

 

[the phantom menace]

Unfortunately ladder position (games won) is a better indicator of which teams get to play finals footy, and finish the season ranked higher (and more advantaged in the top 8 system!

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Unfortunately ladder position (games won) is a better indicator of which teams get to play finals footy, and finish the season ranked higher (and more advantaged in the top 8 system!

Sure, but the ladder only matters at finals time. That's why premiership odds (set by people with skin in the game rather than argumentative smartarses like yourself) correlate more closely with points differential than the ladder: https://www.nrl.com/ladder/?competition=111&round=10&season=2023

The obvious implication being that if your ladder position doesn't match your quality (as indicated by points differential) the ladder will sort itself out over the course of the season.

Obviously it might not, which is why we're paying $26 for the premiership instead of $5 or $6.

 

[the phantom menace]

Yes, so at those odds the people with skin in the game can see that we're nowhere near as good a chance at actually making the finals as you and your points differential stat would suggest.

Glad you agree that ladder position is the better indicator of making the finals.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

If we do make the finals they believe only six teams are a better chance of winning it than we are. This is because of our quality, which is reflected in our points differential (5th) more than our position on the ladder (13th). Myself and hindyeleven tipped a sixth place finish and I reckon it's still looking good.

 

[Bandwagon]

We are top five for points differential, which is a better indicator of a team's quality than ladder position, especially when teams have had an unequal number of byes. The team in third place has one more win than we do.

Unfortunately ladder position (games won) is a better indicator of which teams get to play finals footy, and finish the season ranked higher (and more advantaged in the top 8 system!

With the byes all over the shop, this year the number of losses correlates with ladder position far better than the number of wins.