Rd15: Eels v Roosters GAME DAY THREAD @ Commbank 18/6/22

[Poupou Escobar]

I don't see how many games are required to argue your assertion. Just how many games JA has played. Please explain.

Let’s flip your stupid question. If one game out of seven is enough to make a definitive assessment, which game do you use?

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Do you judge all the players by the Roosters game or the Dogs game?

FFS!

 

[Poupou Escobar]

He’s saying you should use all 7 games that he’s played. Don’t cherry pick.

Yep. Twenty games would be better and 100 would be better than that. But we only have seven this year, so why use only one to make a judgement?

 

[Poupou Escobar]

But if he had terrible stats over 7 games, Pou would say is to small a sample size, which it is.

It is too small a sample but it’s the only sample we have. It’s also a damn sight bigger than a sample of one cherry picked game. If you want a bigger sample you can add the games he played last year. It starts to give a picture of his ability in that grade, which for his age is a decent predictor of what type of first grader he’ll be.

But also in first grade he has been very much second/third/fourth fiddle, so his line engagements and runs are much lower than they are in reserve grade. In that grade he gets the ball when the defence is out of shape, whereas in first grade it’s a waste to give those touches to the backup so he rightly doesn’t get those opportunities to shine that he does in the lower grade.

 

[emjaycee]

It is too small a sample but it’s the only sample we have. It’s also a damn sight bigger than a sample of one cherry picked game. If you want a bigger sample you can add the games he played last year. It starts to give a picture of his ability in that grade, which for his age is a decent predictor of what type of first grader he’ll be.

But also in first grade he has been very much second/third/fourth fiddle, so his line engagements and runs are much lower than they are in reserve grade. In that grade he gets the ball when the defence is out of shape, whereas in first grade it’s a waste to give those touches to the backup so he rightly doesn’t get those opportunities to shine that he does in the lower grade.

He was pretty good as eighteenth man against the Roosters though.
In fact, he was so good I would have wanted him in the squad pic with the trophy after the game.

 

[EelsFan05]

It is too small a sample but it’s the only sample we have. It’s also a damn sight bigger than a sample of one cherry picked game. If you want a bigger sample you can add the games he played last year. It starts to give a picture of his ability in that grade, which for his age is a decent predictor of what type of first grader he’ll be.

But also in first grade he has been very much second/third/fourth fiddle, so his line engagements and runs are much lower than they are in reserve grade. In that grade he gets the ball when the defence is out of shape, whereas in first grade it’s a waste to give those touches to the backup so he rightly doesn’t get those opportunities to shine that he does in the lower grade.

You're avoiding the question again. But I'll see you at the next sample size post.

 

[Gary Gutful]

You're avoiding the question again. But I'll see you at the next sample size post.

I know you didn’t ask me but I would say it would take most first graders an average of three full seasons to show their potential.

Coaches don’t have that luxury with fringies.

Players like Dylan Brown though have shown that they are worth being patient with. I was prepared to write him off but based on what I have seen this year the coaching staff were right and I was wrong.

 

[hindy111]

I know you didn’t ask me but I would say it would take most first graders an average of three full seasons to show their potential.

Coaches don’t have that luxury with fringies.

Players like Dylan Brown though have shown that they are worth being patient with. I was prepared to write him off but based on what I have seen this year the coaching staff were right and I was wrong.

Yes but D.Brown always has had the athletic ability and this you can not change. Same as Mahoney. He will never be dynamite from dummy half cause he is built like a pork barrel and short stumpy legs.
The ceiling for D.Brown was always higher then Mahoney or JA.
JA problem will always be the fact he is slow off the mark. Amd hasn't much power. This won't change a lot. It means to make it in the NRL he will need to be exceptional in other areas to make up for it. But he could never become elite.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

You're avoiding the question again.

That makes both of us.

 

[hindy111]

That makes both of us.

Imagine you where in the hot seat. You'd be analed by Eddy

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Yes but D.Brown always has had the athletic ability and this you can not change. Same as Mahoney. He will never be dynamite from dummy half cause he is built like a pork barrel and short stumpy legs.
The ceiling for D.Brown was always higher then Mahoney or JA.
JA problem will always be the fact he is slow off the mark. Amd hasn't much power. This won't change a lot. It means to make it in the NRL he will need to be exceptional in other areas to make up for it. But he could never become elite.

Arthur is already a solid defender and will only get better. That puts him ahead of most merkins defending three in. With his height he has plenty of scope to get stronger in his run game, so while he might not ever be much threat to step through broken defence or beat a defender with speed, he can become the type of playmaker who digs into the line and either gets a quick play-the-ball or drags his defender across the line if they leave him one-on-one. We saw that in his debut game. Add to that his work rate/support play, plus if he has a good work ethic his kicking and passing will only get better. There is definite NRL potential there. He might turn into nothing but he also might end up with a Chad Townsend level career. That merkin is a premiership winner, and I’m sure plenty of nuffy fans have written him off over the years. Not every halfback needs to be flashy or even fast.

 

[EelsFan05]

Imagine you where in the hot seat. You'd be analed by Eddy

Imagine if he had to make a serious life decision. f**king hell.

 

[crocodile]

I don't believe several of the things mentioned like wind or the shape of the ball will even need to be taken into account to get a high degree of accuracy as the answer will come from tracking the passing motion. And for that the ball is in the player's hands.

I expect the passing motion to be mostly irrelevant. Hard to ascertain what direction he is facing. "Backwards out of the hands" shouldn't be too hard to visualise. The player's speed relative to his try line is easily determined. The position that the receiver takes possession is easily determined. If that position is further forward than the passer plus the distance the ball can travel towards the goal line then the pass has to be forward.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

I expect the passing motion to be mostly irrelevant. Hard to ascertain what direction he is facing. "Backwards out of the hands" shouldn't be too hard to visualise. The player's speed relative to his try line is easily determined. The position that the receiver takes possession is easily determined. If that position is further forward than the passer plus the distance the ball can travel towards the goal line then the pass has to be forward.

I wouldn't think the direction the player is facing matters, just that the arc of the passing motion would be backwards. Then all the other factors could be ignored. But perhaps they can't do that accurately enough.

 

[TheParraboy]

If we win the premiership if won’t be a big pool sample of how good we are

 

[crocodile]

I wouldn't think the direction the player is facing matters, just that the arc of the passing motion would be backwards. Then all the other factors could be ignored. But perhaps they can't do that accurately enough.

It's a bit hard to see backwards when the player is running forward. Even a pass thrown backwards will still travel towards the goal line.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

It's a bit hard to see backwards when the player is running forward. Even a pass thrown backwards will still travel towards the goal line.

Yeah fair point. Maybe they can allow for the speed and direction of the player at the time of the passing movement.
What I'm thinking is that the actual path of the ball may not matter beyond the initial trajectory. We'll see. I just reckon if they're confident about being able to do it there's likely a good reason.

 

[the phantom menace]

Yep. Twenty games would be better and 100 would be better than that. But we only have seven this year, so why use only one to make a judgement?

Unless he ends up shit, in which case the less games played for us the better...

 

[the phantom menace]

Arthur is already a solid defender and will only get better.

Until he levels out and or starts to decline...

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

If we win the premiership if won’t be a big pool sample of how good we are

Maybe not but I'll still wee in it.