Rd16: Eels v Rabbits GAME DAY THREAD @ Accor Stadium 2/7/22

[Poupou Escobar]

Nobody is talking about it in those terms. We're essentially talking about who people tipped to win.

Well my more important point is that if they tipped with any confidence they're f**king idiots. The best a smart person would do is pick the favourite, but even then they would realise the favourite is also unlikely to win in a 16 (or realistically 5-6) horse race.

Of course most teams probably won't, even most times the most favoured team. But compared to the number of people who tipped the Panthers, plenty also tipped us.

Even if we were favourites, $4 is a long shot. Now we're closer to the finals none of the teams represent value. I reckon Penrith are still less than 50-50. A couple of injuries (or one key injury) and they're f**ked.

Penrith are currently the only team with no injuries: https://www.nrl.com/news/2022/01/25/nrl-casualty-ward-all-the-latest-injury-news/

They have good depth but some players are irreplaceable. How long will their luck hold up?

 

[Gazzamatta]

On a brighter note check our Rickys Presser.

 

[Gary Gutful]

And what exactly is the job?

TO F**KEN WIN THE F**KEN PREMIERSHIP FFS!!!

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

Right but don't you see this makes it even harder to win?
Well no because anything greater than $2 means unlikely to win. If the premiership were a two horse race the favourite would be paying less than $2 (less than $1.90 really). The fact even the favourites are paying more than $2 shows how hard it is to pick a winner. Your chances of winning (according to the bookies) are roughly one divided by your price. So even at $4 you're only about a 25% chance of winning the comp, and therefore a roughly 75% chance of not winning.

Yes mate, I assume that almost anyone discussing this already understands all that. I certainly do, as I think I've made clear.

 

[hindy111]

Right but don't you see this makes it even harder to win?
Well no because anything greater than $2 means unlikely to win. If the premiership were a two horse race the favourite would be paying less than $2 (less than $1.90 really). The fact even the favourites are paying more than $2 shows how hard it is to pick a winner. Your chances of winning (according to the bookies) are roughly one divided by your price. So even at $4 you're only about a 25% chance of winning the comp, and therefore a roughly 75% chance of not winning.

Bar injuries Panthers or Storm will win it. The odds factor in injuries along with a possible send off or heap of HIAs which can happen.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I've actually not heard anything from the coach on 'chasing the collision' once this season.

It's just a mantra (like 'being accountable to each other') that coaches use to focus the squad on a priority area. It's simplistic because they're footy players, and you get it in pressers because fans and journos like to hear footy speak. The nuances of a complex problem like success in professional sports don't make for good sound bites, plus they don't want to give too much away when their competitors are also listening.

To be honest the team is not the same team this season, that it has been for the last 3 seasons.

I agree. The team doesn't feel like it's building for the future. It feels like they all know this year is the last throw of the dice.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

after 9 season the Head Coach has the players he wants

That's not true at all. The salary cap is a factor no matter how long the coach has been at the club. Every year it prevents clubs building the team they want.

 

[hindy111]

It's just a mantra (like 'being accountable to each other') that coaches use to focus the squad on a priority area. It's simplistic because they're footy players, and you get it in pressers because fans and journos like to hear footy speak. The nuances of a complex problem like success in professional sports don't make for good sound bites, plus they don't want to give too much away when their competitors are also listening.
I agree. The team doesn't feel like it's building for the future. It feels like they all know this year is the last throw of the dice.

 

[emjaycee]

TO F**KEN WIN THE F**KEN PREMIERSHIP FFS!!!

If thats the case, why does everyone have their titties in a twist about a game in the rain at Homebush in early July?

 

[Poupou Escobar]

And what exactly is the job?

Win every game they're expected to win plus a couple they're expected to lose. Even though it's probably never been done before.

 

[emjaycee]

Bar injuries Panthers or Storm will win it. The odds factor in injuries along with a possible send off or heap of HIAs which can happen.

Unless we beat either of them, which can happen.

 

[Chipmunk]

If thats the case, why does everyone have their titties in a twist about a game in the rain at Homebush in early July?

Because the result last night was very predictable, and we won't win the comp if we don't make the Top 4. We will likely need to win games like last night, particularly when you don't beat the Tigers and the Dogs, to make the Top 4.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Yes mate, I assume that almost anyone discussing this already understands all that. I certainly do, as I think I've made clear.

Right, but then merkins are also talking like not winning the comp is some kind of massive failure. Even winning enough games (and specific enough ones) to make it to week three of the finals is statistically unlikely.

 

[hindy111]

Unless we beat either of them, which can happen.

In finals if they are fit it will be hard. Especially Storm down there. But yes there is a chance we play amazing

 

[hindy111]

Right, but then merkins are also talking like not winning the comp is some kind of massive failure. Even winning enough games (and specific enough ones) to make it to week three of the finals is statistically unlikely.

Let worry about getting pass week 2 big boy. Not done it since 2009. 12yrs.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

 

[Gary Gutful]

Let worry about getting pass week 2 big boy. Not done it since 2009. 12yrs.

Sounds statistically unlikely. Don't know what Pou was thinking...

 

[eel01s]

Here is my take:

I think we have a well balanced squad. Sure there are no superstars, but we have proved we can mix it with the best.

What is holding us back from consistently being a top 4 side? I don't think we are well drilled enough. We don't run enough shapes or set moves. Our attack is purely based on offloads or cross kicks. Our hooker cannot engage the markers consistently.

In defence we have obvious deficiencies that have been apparent for several seasons. We rarely put the tackled player on their back. We often have tacklers left on the ground. Of course we are always overlapped allowing wingers to score easy tries.

We also are low on footy smarts. Last night for example, it took us three or four dropouts before Gutho tried to kick low towards the sideline. It was a wet, soggy ground. Hello!

Last, but not least, we are mentally weak.

Pretty much all of the above is on the coaching staff.

 

[lucablight]

Right, but then merkins are also talking like not winning the comp is some kind of massive failure. Even winning enough games (and specific enough ones) to make it to week three of the finals is statistically unlikely.

Pretty ridiculous take when you’re just dismissing variance and how it never seems to go in our favour.

 

[Eelementary]

And what exactly is the job?

By my count, twice this season, Arthur has mentioned that we just didn't turn up - getting the team to turn up is something he is responsible for, even if the actual task is delegated to one of his assistants.

Putting structures, and procedures, in place, to develop players - he has arguably done well here, as Gutherson, Brown, Matterson have all played Origin under his tenure, and Mahoney has been almost there.

Developing tactics, and strategies, to win games - this is 50-50; we too often look clueless in both attack, and defence, and things don't change. The players have their roles to play in this, too - but either he tells them to do something, and they don't, or he tells them to do something, and they cant; either way, he's the boss, so the team not performing is on his shoulders.

Great bloke - had a chat, or two, with him, and he is as passionate as they come.

But what he is doing isn't working.

I also am puzzled by his dumping of Brown; though he is out of form, his playstyle is the living embodiment of chasing the collision.

I don't understand why he gets dropped, but players with poor attitudes like Kaufusi, and Lane, get to keep their jobs.

Not many players have been in great form, so dropping Brown for performance issues seems harsh.

Attitude-wise, Brown has always given 100% - he never shirks tough work, and gives his all.

If the demotion was to make a statement, I believe the wrong player was chosen to do that.

At the end of the day, adjustments to the team are not visibly being made; whether he simply isn't making the adjustments, or whether the team ignores his coaching, they are both equally concerning scenarios.

And our "structure" in attack looks so hacked together - we looked slick against the Roosters, but other than that...

While we did beat Melbourne, and Penrith, one was beaten by a freak bounce, and the other scored the same amount of tries as we did.

I think Arthur needs to give his players a reality check; many of them seem comfortable, and have gotten into bad habits. I believe he needs to let them know that if they keep showing up with a poor attitude, then he will not accept it.

Mahoney over-calling his halves is never good, and Gutherson going kick crazy is overstepping his role.

Brad needs to lay the law of the team down, and take control.

Just my long-winded two cents.