Rd16: Eels v Rabbits GAME DAY THREAD @ Accor Stadium 2/7/22

[hindy111]

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I looked at it a while back and my recollection is that we were approx. $13 and 5th behind Panthers, Storm, Roosters and Manly.

I got on us months ago at $13. Better than $150 but still massive outsiders.

 

[Avenger]

I got on us months ago at $13

And how much did you bet?

 

[Poupou Escobar]

The roster is fine. Stop shifting the blame off the coach onto the players.

The roster is fine. Good enough for top six, which is where we're sitting after more than half the season.

 

[hindy111]

I got on us months ago at $13. Better than $150 but still massive outsiders.

15s now. You got analed. We are 4th favourites. Souths at 41s is a ok bet. Easy run home. If the top 2 cop injuries they are as good a shot as anyone.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

So more likely than most teams. Not being the favourite doesn't mean we're no chance.

That's what I keep telling merkins.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

But you countered Avenger's claim that plenty in the media thought we'd win by saying that the bookies didn't. I would say that if we're fifth favourite then plenty of bookies also thought we'd win.

No it means they thought we might. And if the favourites are paying more than $2 it means that some other winner is more likely than the favourites winning. Imagine a team was paying $13 in a two horse race. They would be extreme underdogs.

 

[the phantom menace]

If we were only about chasing collisions we wouldn't be the top offloading team in the NRL for the fourth straight year. Chasing the collision refers to improving our weakness, which is getting numbers into the tackle.

Neither of which in isolation win us games against teams we should expect to beat (or into week 3 of the finals) ffs.

 

[hindy111]

The bookies didn't.

At one point we come into 7s. We've constantly been 3rd or 4th favourite. Penrith however are a super team and so are the Storm

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I didn't think you did. But it would have been a good bet.

It was a good bet. It means if we make the grand final I can load up on the opposition and not lose too much if we happen to arse the win.

 

[Avenger]

15s now. You got analed. We are 4th favourites. Souths at 41s is a ok bet. Easy run home. If the top 2 cop injuries they are as good a shot as anyone.

If we don’t win both of our next two games I’d be tapping BA on the shoulder and sorting out an exit plan for 2023.

 

[hindy111]

If we don’t win both of our next two games I’d be tapping BA on the shoulder and sorting out an exit plan for 2023.

We will winnour next two by 20+

 

[Poupou Escobar]

It’s def one of the better squads in the nrl. We’ve beaten Penrith and melb and have several origin players as well as having a fair few finals games under our belts.

so what’s stopping the team progressing?

Playing against teams with more Origin and finals games under their belts? Why does beating Melbourne and Penrith once mean we should expect to beat them every time we meet them? Are you going to have your house on us to beat them a second time? I reckon we'll lose both games, and the bookies will agree.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Sorry MJC, I think IFR33K has got a point here. If we can beat those top 2 teams and we can't be consistent enough to beat the lesser teams (I don't consider Souths a lesser team) then there are no excuses. It's a mental thing, and that's on the coach. He doesn't have the intellect to get them up for the games they should win.

If we only care about the finals then the games we 'should win' are irrelevant.

 

[hineyrulz]

That's like saying Mahoney and Papali'i were unwanted by Parra.
Plenty of good players are 'surprlus to requirements' at striong clubs. That's what makes them strong clubs. Aren't you all for signing an assistant coach from Penrith? Not good enough to be their head coach but good enough to be ours right? Do you even read the shit you type?
Forget 'before the season started'. Townsend was a premiership winner and Dearden and Drinkwater both had enough potential that they ended up in the system of massive junior development clubs like Brisbane and Melbourne. Robson was considered to have huge potential as well. If they were underperforming last year you have to wonder why.

 

[hindy111]

Playing against teams with more Origin and finals games under their belts? Why does beating Melbourne and Penrith once mean we should expect to beat them every time we meet them? Are you going to have your house on us to beat them a second time? I reckon we'll lose both games, and the bookies will agree.

I agree with you. They also have heaps better coaches as well

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

No it means they thought we might. And if the favourites are paying more than $2 it means that some other winner is more likely than the favourites winning. Imagine a team was paying $13 in a two horse race. They would be extreme underdogs.

Yes but it's not a two horse race. In this context, where we were a bit more than double the price of the favourite, saying plenty think we'll win is true.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Every game but week 2 of the finals??

I reckon we're a chance. If you don't why do you bother? Why not f**k off?

 

[hindy111]

I reckon we're a chance. If you don't why do you bother? Why not f**k off?

The best thing about our flogging I feel is JA hasn't been playing. So he hasn't been the reason why we have been belted.

We look like a side who have had enough mentally but if we do scrape into the finals we potentially could fire up and do some real damage.

Penrith and Storm will fear us more then Manly,Sharks,Brisbane or Cowboys. This is reality. Its a shame we are not consistent anymore but the squads had enough and just can't stay focussed every week at present.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

We were an above average chance of winning. I think plenty of bookies would have tipped us to win if such a poll had happened. The fact we were only about double the price of the favourite strongly suggests this.

You need to think about it in the context of the odds. If the best priced team is paying $4 it means nobody could say with confidence that any given team will win it. Even now that it has emerged that Penrith is again the best team in the comp, they are still paying $2.20. In a two horse race (Penrith vs the other 15 teams) $2.20 represents the outsider. If you could bet on Penrith not winning the comp it would pay less than $2. Now repeat that for any set of odds greater than what Penrith are paying and you have an even weaker outsider.