How the AFL boosts its numbers to sell its game
Roy Masters
July 12, 2008
CONFIDENTIAL data on participation rates of junior players in greater Sydney has reflected a flawed and desperate mission by the AFL to lay a footprint in the city's west.
When paired with inflated crowd figures on the Gold Coast, the data shows the AFL's expansion plans to be a hall of mirrors.
Heavy use of contra advertising - part of the AFL's $780 million broadcasting deal - to generate a big crowd at Homebush Bay for the Swans versus Collingwood match mocks the claims by NRL chief executive David Gallop that AFL deserves its record TV revenue because it is the biggest game in town.
The AFL is involved in a furious game of catch-up following the proud but presumptuous boast earlier this year of chairman Mike Fitzpatrick to expand the AFL to 18 teams by 2012, including clubs in western Sydney and the on Gold Coast, in order to lift TV ratings and generate a $1 billion TV rights package when the current deal expires.
The AFL's own statistics reveal there are only slightly more juniors registered as players in Sydney's west than actually playing rugby league in the city's eastern suburbs, an NRL district maligned for its dependence on imported players.
The AFL counts children involved in Auskick clinics to justify its $60 million investment in Sydney and, even if the numbers participating in these school clinics are included, the data indicates the eight listed junior AFL clubs in Sydney's west need to amalgamate age groups to field teams.
Australian Rugby League development officers point out there are 9700 children involved in clinics these school holidays in the Kids to Kangaroos program yet none are counted because they are not registered players.
AFL figures for Sydney's west list 1010 players, including 359 Auskick players, while there are 936 registered rugby league players in Melbourne. Newcastle, included in AFL data as part of greater Sydney, has declining numbers of children playing AFL - and that includes the Auskick figures.
The AFL - which has paid North Melbourne $400,000 a game to play on the Gold Coast - is also capable of creative crowd counting. It reported an attendance of 9128 at Carrara Stadium for the recent North versus St Kilda match, yet Ticketek figures show only 3900 tickets were sold; 3000 were free and there were more than 2000 "add-ons".
Expansion plans have been tested by poor attendance at the venue - that crowd followed one of 6354; the Kangaroos' decision to reject it as their new "home" and this week's failure to sign the popular former Brisbane captain Michael Voss as coach.
A month-long marketing campaign and heavily reliance on contra advertising generated a crowd of almost 59,202 at ANZ Stadium on Saturday night for the Swans versus Collingwood match.
It was the AFL's big match of the year in Sydney outside the finals.
Going into the match, the Swans were averaging 38,000 at Homebush Bay after poor attendances for the West Coast and Essendon games, and even the lift from the Collingwood crowd still means the ANZ Stadium average is well below last year's 63,000.
The Homebush Bay attendance has been used by AFL flag wavers to justify a second Sydney team, pointing out the crowd was four times the number who turned up the next day to watch the Eels and Panthers at nearby Parramatta Stadium.
However, ignored in the passionate debate was the 78,751 who attended the deciding State of Origin match at Homebush Bay four days before the Parramatta game.
Petrol prices and interest rates are hurting families, and parents who can afford the $45 adult general admission to an Origin match may not be able to back up for NRL matches.
Nor does the price of drinks and fast food at stadiums make it easier.
Even young single wage earners who watched the Brisbane State of Origin match in Sydney pubs find it difficult to budget for club games.
Nine NRL games in Sydney during the Origin period drew crowds of less than 10,000, which suggests fans are hurting in the pocket, or won't watch matches minus the stars.
Comparing NRL and AFL crowds is a dangerous exercise, with one prominent Swans supporter saying, "You can't apply Melbourne metrics to the Sydney sporting market. The Kings have been the most successful club in NBL history, and played off in arguably the greatest final series of all time, yet there is not enough popular support in Sydney to resuscitate the brand."
Despite this, AFL cheer squads persist in ridiculing choice as a factor in Sydney, a city which has two rugby demographics.
Sydney's sporting options have created a fickleness which is reflected in the AFL's own figures.
The Swans have the highest churn rate in the AFL, that is, fans who don't renew their memberships. Each year, 22 per cent of members drop out, meaning there is a furious chase every year to find new members.
The Swans' Sydney membership of 19,000 is their lowest in a long time and falling. It is the lowest in the AFL and well below Melbourne's bottom - 28,000 for the Demons - a club which even the AFL considers a basket case.
Too much of the debate about AFL versus NRL relies on anecdotal evidence.
The Herald's sister paper, The Age, seized on a Fitz Files item last month, quoting a Sunday afternoon scene at Bondi's Ravesi's bar: the big screen was showing the Roosters but no one was watching until the Swans were switched on, and suddenly everyone was captivated.
The few rugby league fans present were forced to watch the Roosters versus Knights in a corner of the bar. Compare this with a report from an incensed reader of a scene at the Clovelly Hotel on Saturday night, the evening of the Swans versus Collingwood match. The fan insists the attention of bar patrons was split between the Wallabies-France Test and the Dragons-Knights game.
"One small box in the corner had the Swans on," he said. "No one was watching the AFL, or caring."
OK, the Clovelly Hotel is the de facto headquarters of the NRL, which explains the interest in the Dragons-Knights, and the eastern suburbs has always been a rugby union stronghold.
But one swallow doesn't make a summer or, in the case of the AFL's flight westward, one big crowd of Swans doesn't mean a successful winter.
The Clovelly and Ravesi's are as different as AFL and NRL. Ravesi's is a silvertail bar; the Clovelly is a sports pub.
There are only two plasma screens at Ravesi's, which subscribed to Fox Sports only a year ago.
The Clovelly has been a Shangri-la of TV screens for the sports nut since pay TV came to Australia.
Their owners understand their respective clienteles. After all, until a year ago, both venues were owned by the same businessmen.
On Saturday night, Ravesi's patrons were watching the Wallabies.
One Swans official says he has long refused to draw conclusions from anecdotal evidence of fans watching football in pubs.
"I've been to Sydney pubs in the eastern suburbs on a Saturday night where I would have been knocked out if I changed the channel to the Swans," he said.
CHILD'S PLAY
�¡ As many kids play rugby league in Melbourne as play AFL in Sydney's west.
�¡ AFL counts children involved in short-term Auskick clinics as official players.
�¡ There are only slightly more juniors playing AFL in Sydney's west than rugby league in the eastern suburbs.
�¡ The eight listed junior AFL clubs in Sydney's west need to amalgamate age groups to field teams.
�¡ Newcastle, included in AFL data as part of greater Sydney, has falling player numbers.
THE NUMBERS
Australian football junior participation rates for season 2007
Region Auskick Junior Youth Total
Central Coast 178 377 297 852
Illawarra 157 330 231 718
Newcastle 167 291 310 768
Sydney City 732 386 408 1526
Sydney North 794 1219 781 2794
Sydney South 265 377 303 945
Sydney South West 272 221 198 691
Sydney West 359 376 282 1017
Total 2924 3577 2810 9311
