Agree with that, although I had left Mitch Rein out of my original post, who also left. I assume he would have been on more than bare minimum - perhaps $200,000.
Yes, you are right. I should have said 2020 onwards.
It really is a difficult to assessment to make as to how much he is worth.
A few points in favour of it being worth paying him $1.3 million or so, even at his age:
- The NRL salary cap has increased a lot - it is $9.4 million this season, and presumably will have increased further by 2020. Even if it only increases by 3.5% per year, we are talking a $10 million salary cap by 2020. So even paying $1.3 million as Manly are doing for Cherry Evans leaves you with a lot to spend on the balance of the team.
- Halves are the highest paid position, on average, in the competition. Decent halves are all paid at least $1 million a season. Cherry Evans is paid $1.3 million, Ben Hunt $1.2 million (query if he is even decent), Cooper Cronk $1 million, Mitchell Pearce, $1 million. Thurston $1 million. Ash Taylor $1 million. Milford $1 million per season, after turning down an even bigger offer from Melbourne. Shaun Johnson $1 million.
- Cleary has shown his potential over the course of 1.5 seasons. He has put in very good performances, on average, across those seasons. He rarely he has a howler, and has shown an incredible mix of talents: he is the league's best goal kicker - which is match winning in itself. He is an outstanding defensive half - what other half in the comp could have stopped Coen Hess scoring by holding him up the way he did. His spiraling bombs are amazing. He takes on the line without fear. The areas of the game he needs to work on is his attacking decision making - being able to read the general course of a match, identify weaknesses in the opposition, and exploit them all on the fly. However, that necessarily takes exposure to the situations in which those opportunities present themselves, and lots of practice. He is being mentored by a former great (in Greg Alexander), and he has 10 years of coaching already from Ivan Cleary - an excellent coach.
- The fact he can already do what he can do at 20, already makes him better than some halves who are late in their careers. The fact he is young suggests that he can continue to develop. He has shown a commitment to training (he's no lout like Todd Carney).
- He may get picked as NSW's Origin half this year (in fact, he is probably the favourite). If he is picked as NSW Origin half (appreciating that is one big IF), and IF NSW wins he series (a huge IF at this point), assuming he has some hand in that victory, he will have well and truly proved himself.
- If we let him go, we are stuffed in the halves. There isn't a back-up in the wings.
- We are paying Tamou $750,000 a season (has not proven to be a good buy, but may have served to help the rest of the junior forwards with their development, I don't know).
Having regard to all of those things, I can't see Cleary signing for less than $1 million a season. He is plainly worth it by reference to the market. I expect we will need to pay $1.2 - $1.3 million, or we will lose him to somewhere like the Storm or the Roosters (Cronk is only signed until 2019 - Roosters will immediately want a high quality half when Cronk retires). Storm would love one right now.
The only thing one could really say against that is that he hasn't had long enough in first grade to prove himself. However, I think the contrary, that we are seeing the emergence of one of the games next great players. There have been a few great players who revealed themselves to be great at a young age - Fitler played Origin at 18.
I could very well be wrong and completely over hyping what I am seeing, and I might have rose tinted glasses because I am a Penrith fan and I really want Cleary to stay with us and be great. Only time will tell.
