Broncos v Panthers
$1.50 v $2.50 head to head
Broncos do look more settled across 7 to 1 on paper, Perry returns to 7, Lockie to 6, Hunt to 1, Hodges to 4 (although doubtful with slight knee injury). But for mine the Broncos problems are in the middle, not across the back, and it's more to do with defence (52 missed tackles last wk, 41 the week before) than the supposed handling errors. Similar to my thoughts on the Bulldogs this yr this forward line up imo is much weaker than it's been and that's where there problems are. Webcke, Parker, Carroll, Stagg and McGuire are missing for various reasons, that's 5 of the main forward line up of recent yrs, some holes to fill quickly this week especially with quality defence. And that's the Panthers strength, if on song as they were when improving v the Bulldogs. The Broncos also come off a shorter back up (Sun to Fri) plus travel to and from Auckland, Panthers an extra two days Fri to Fri and were at home (no travel). Broncos have been good at home through the last 2 yrs (60%+), but have lost 4 of their last 5 there, Panthers can be ordinary away (under 50% 06 and 05), head to head the Panthers have won 4 of last 6. The % selection is the Broncos, but I'm not convinced, I expect the Panthers to play to their strengths (and probable Broncs weakness) up the middle with continued pressure both in attack and defence and favour that to become their advantage to get the job done.
Eels v Tigers
$1.55 v $2.35 head to head
Dear oh dear, how do you line this up. Hindmarsh an important player back for the Eels, as is there return to Parra stadium where they have a far stronger record. Eels have won 9 of last 14 v Tigers, 5 of the last 7 v's them at the ground, Tigers recent away record is not that flash either, only 3 of last 13. Eels have been crook in defence with 30+ against in both games, both looked to have struggled in attack so far. Again the % selection is the Eels at home, but I just don't like the way their form looks at the moment, taking the hunch that the Tigers who I still rate as a top half side were up for the Storm, on the rebound when complacent last week and will be on the improve into this. Tigers.
Dragons v Cowboys
$2.15 v $1.65 head to head
Cowboys poor record at the track, lost 4 from 5, but the Dragons do look a lessor line up at present. Head and Poore return but must be short of a run, Jason Smith now not to play and doubt over Hornby, but the Cowboys look smart at the moment with a good balance of solid defence and potent skillful attack. Cowbys should be winning this.
Sharks v Rabbitohs
$1.90 v $1.85 head to head
With 3 or 4 players including Dykes and Thompson in doubt the market has already folded with the Bunnies in from $2 on Wed, wouldn’t be surprised to see that continue to tighten. Souths lost all away games last yr, Sharks nothing flash at home either (last yr), now to back up from Monday night away with a probable weaker line up. I'm happy to back the current form as opposed to the recent years stats, Rabbitohs are playing well with a smart mix of play, strong forward power built around 6 or 7 big units and smarter finishing, expect them to win comfortably here, a sizeable score would not surprise.
Storm v Warriors
$1.35 v $3.00 head to head
I think they are much closer than the market suggests here but I just can't tip the Warriors on this track right at the moment. First away game, record away only 40% 06 / 05, but they have a very even record with this opposition, Storm 4 / 3 at the ground, 3 all head to head last 6. Storm are 90% at home 06, 70% 05, that is some advantage. They are still a little rusty but have proved through recent yrs that they can lift as and when needed for the bigger games. This should be one of them, certainly the match of the round, I think both are top 4 and this should be telling us a lot more about where they are each up to and more importantly heading this yr. The up front battle should be a cracker, interested to so how the Warriors 9, 7 and 6 handle the challenge. Lean to the Storm on their home track.
Bulldogs v Titans
$1.30 v $2.30 head to head
Bulldogs have had a suitable kick in the pants through recent weeks, at home this week one would expect a sizeable improvement. Titans first away game, probably have enjoyed the week with the first win now chalked up, this to be much harder. Dogs should get home comfortably.
Roosters v Sea Eagles
$2.35 v $1.55 head to head
Is this a battle of the 40 precentors? Roosters home record around 40% over the last two poor yrs, Eagles away record around 40% something over the last two yrs, Eagles have won the last two v Roosters on this track, head to head Roosters 5 to 4 of last 9. As much as I expect some improvement from the Roosters back to a normal full week of preparation it's hard to have any confidence in whether it's enough for this. Sea Eagles are doing the job at hand, even with some key injuries, considerable lift last week which should only be building their confidence, with their high % game will be tough to get over, favour them here.
Raiders v Knights
$2.65 v $1.45 head to head
Another tricky game. As much as I liked some of what I saw from the Raiders last week there is still much to be concerned about, notably their continued high handling errors and high defensive errors (both two weeks in a row). They have an advantage of 5 from last 7 over Knights here, but they might well have been stronger, more disciplined sides than where this young line up might well be right now in its development. Conversely Knights look to get Johns back, obviously a huge plus and there new found game of Smithball low errors high percentage plays makes them a tougher nut to crack. Knights to get home here with their stronger discipline and control.
Bets.
The Panthers are some value at $2.50, the line at +5.5 is also a good bet option. Happy to back the hunch that the Tigers will be better this week and improve on a dry track at $2.35. Rabbitohs ok at $1.85, I'll also have them at 13+, up to three that can sweeten any all up multis, Cowboys $1.65; Bulldogs $1.30 and Knights $1.45.
.
