Mixmasterreece for the Warriors
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Applied Game Theory
Marquee players have become one of the most highly sort after resources on the NRL market. Whilst it is undeniable that big name signings can add value to any team, it could also be argued that their value to the club is often over estimated.
The theory behind this piece is the belief that clubs can get more value for money by signing cheaper players - who are more team orientated - than acquiring high value players who rely on individual talent alone.
The NRL at it's core is a market place. Players are traded like commodities, the game is sold to the public and clubs exist largely to generate revenue. It is working under these guidelines that in the best interests of economic strategy, clubs should review their policy on financing the purchase of marque players.
This theory has been crafted through an analysis of the payoffs of two different player acquisition strategies, using the combination of mathematical and economic models known as 'Game Theory'.
Goals:
The goal of the club in this model is to increase it's revenue by producing positive results on the field. This in turn effects the goal of the players - which is to increase their cash flow through contract upgrades and third parties sponsorships. The odds of a player reaching these goals is dramatically increased when they are involved in a winning team environment.
Strategies:
During the season clubs are often faced with a fork in the road. Due to salary cap restraints, clubs often have the choice of buying a marque player or investing in a number of lesser value players to fill their roster. The two strategies below outline a similar choice.
1)To buy a marquee player for $300k who while individually brilliant, does not fit into the team dynamic.
2)To buy two lesser skilled players for $100k each who are both team orientated.
Strategy Payoffs:
1)A number of resulting effects can be felt if the player does not fit into the team dynamic. The players inflated price tag may effect other team members ability to receive contract upgrades, which in turn affects the teams desire.
2)By going with option two the club then has a perfect model for game theory. With a squad of players molding a productive team dynamic, models can be created to maximise the return for the club and it's players.
Game Theory:
To analyse the two strategies and their resulting impacts 'Game Theory' can be used. Game theory deals largely with how rational individuals interact with one another in an effort to achieve their own goals. It is game theory that I believe is the model best suited to generating positive results.
Statistically if the club used in this example opts for option two, the probability of the team performing will increase. Instead of players playing individually, the success of the team relies more heavily on their ability to play as a unit. When all members of the unit are working together - in a concerted effort to achieve the shared goal of the unit - they are inadvertently increasing the probability of achieving their personal goals.
External Impacting Factors:
There are a number of factors that can impact the effectiveness of the model. They include factors such as market conditions, the form of other teams, the game plan of the coach or even unexpected obstacles such as injuries.
Whilst these factors may impact on our model, the performance of the team will still be significantly better than if strategy one had been chosen.
Conclusion:
If integers could be assigned to certain aspects of the players abilities and external factors, then the formula for the probability of success would resemble :
Team Talent - 'Market Conditions'
Number of players not playing to achieve unit goals
In 2004 the Warriors management applied game theory to their player retention strategy. Ali Lauitiiti was released from the club for his apparent lack of commitment to the club's main goal. Whilst this was a positive move in the terms of the model used in this article, the negative environment of the club was still enough to effect the desire of the remaining players.
It is in 2006 that the management seem to have gone a long way to creating the perfect atmosphere at the club for game theory to work. The team looks unified and the players look like they want to succeed.
As in all mathematical problems the rational answer is always the solution to the game.
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