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Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
91,159
Huh? Risk management is all about likelihoods! Otherwise they'd play the games in fallout shelters.
You can't cover every base with a finite number of players. What if both the halves go down in the 1st minute? You have to prioritise scenario impact WITH likelihood. And Smith coming on and f**king up a third of his tackles at hooker and providing garbage ruck service is highly likely compared to a player who has almost solely played at hooker AND the impact could be just as sharp as losing an uncovered for player. My cover for losing a player is Drown shifts wider in defence and probably Moeroa slots into his position while Lane covers in attack. If Drown gets injured, we're f**ked, the best edge forward defender takes his spot and the attack is covered by Moses/Gunco/Mahoney/Gower somehow
Mahoney (defending at left edge forward) was rested on Sunday immediately after we conceded a try. We went on to win back control, so whatever we did worked, and Scapegoat Smith didn’t cost us the game, despite picking up a six week injury.

You need to stop going on about it. He is a valuable member of the squad, and proved his worth on the weekend.
 

84 Baby

Referee
Messages
29,662
Mahoney (defending at left edge forward) was rested on Sunday immediately after we conceded a try. We went on to win back control, so whatever we did worked, and Scapegoat Smith didn’t cost us the game, despite picking up a six week injury.

You need to stop going on about it. He is a valuable member of the squad, and proved his worth on the weekend.
Did I not say he's a good squad member? His utility value is great in a 30 man squad.
And I don't scapegoat (except that Drags game last year)
And I'm not saying we need to play Mahoney 80 minutes
I am saying that given his current role we would be better suited to employing an actual hooker on the bench.
We'll never know and I reckon BA would have gone the "safe" route, but you reckon if Kaysa was available that Smith would/should be in 17? And then same question substituting Kaysa with McRibwich
 

Happy MEel

First Grade
Messages
9,852
This discussion needs a risk
Matrix.

images


Gutful FTW
 

Bazal

Post Whore
Messages
102,916
No it isn't. Risk is a combination of likelihood AND consequence.

If something is likely but the consequences are low then the risk is low, merkin.

So if the likelihood of an injury is moderate, being a contact sport, and the consequence is a reshuffle of first grade quality footballers capable in the positions...

And if the likelihood of Will Smith taking the field at hooker when selected in the top 17 as a reserve hooker is extremely high, and the consequence is one fewer first grade quality footballer capable in that position in the 13...

Then it would seem that having Will Smith in the side is actually quite poor risk management.
 

Gary Gutful

Post Whore
Messages
52,936
Extreme risk and they are only reviewing it monthly?

What a bunch of f**ken idiots. Looks like Parramatta's risk matrix.
 

Gary Gutful

Post Whore
Messages
52,936
So if the likelihood of an injury is moderate, being a contact sport, and the consequence is a reshuffle of first grade quality footballers capable in the positions...

And if the likelihood of Will Smith taking the field at hooker when selected in the top 17 as a reserve hooker is extremely high, and the consequence is one fewer first grade quality footballer capable in that position in the 13...

Then it would seem that having Will Smith in the side is actually quite poor risk management.
Partial credit.
 

Bazal

Post Whore
Messages
102,916
Extreme risk and they are only reviewing it monthly?

What a bunch of f**ken idiots. Looks like Parramatta's risk matrix.


"Boss, boss! The roof just fell in and there's live electrical cables flopping all over our desks!"

"Ah, f**k, we literally just had the monthly meeting yesterday. Better get back to work Geeves, I'll make a note to bring it up in April."
 

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