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Poupou Escobar

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
91,084
lucablight said:
It’s not semantics. That’s literally the data.
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Semantics is you arguing over the Merriam Webster definition of hot favourites.
You’re right about Newcastle having the better team in retrospect but they had the same number of origin players as us in 2001 and we had the superior points differential (your most important metric).
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We had a better points differential because we had a genius coach who exploited the ruck rules. They might've had the same number of players in Origin in 2001 but they had so many guys with Origin experience on grand final day. I assume finals experience was similar between the two squads but I wouldn't be surprised if the Knights had more.
You could argue in retrospect that Melbourne redlined against a superior Penrith side (even though at the time they weren’t rated that far apart in terms of win probability) in 2020 like Newcastle did against us.
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I just don't think Penrith played their best in the first half. Stage fright or shit coaching? Maybe Cleary forgot to book them a bus.
 
Glenneel

Glenneel

Bench
Messages
3,744
Delboy said:
What I was told, he was still growing and they selected him in the development squad rather than the Matt’s team and told him that he needed a bit more time to develop physically and wanted to keep him.The rest is history as he wanted to play reps and His manager and Tigers did a deal which is not unusual given even then the number of players to choose from in selecting reps.

looking back, it was a mistake but things have changed since then at junior level as staff and expansion of training squads into North and South increased the eyes on the juniors, certainly improved since since De Gois and Shepard took over 2/3 years ago.
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oldmancraigy

Coach
Messages
11,923
Poupou Escobar said:
I just don't think Penrith played their best in the first half. Stage fright or shit coaching? Maybe Cleary forgot to book them a bus.
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Tough to speculate on one game alone.
I suppose the way they backed up the following season might say more?

Odds of that season going poorly due to difficult circumstances are slim. But even if the perfect storm conspired to happen, surely the year after would be a lift??
 
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Legal Eel

Juniors
Messages
982
oldmancraigy said:
Tough to speculate on one game alone.
I suppose the way they backed up the following season might say more?

Odds of that season going poorly due to difficult circumstances are slim. But even if the perfect storm conspired to happen, surely the year after would be a lift??
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It wouldn’t matter how persuasive, logical or rational your arguments are…this bloke would argue the toss with God himself if it meant a defence of Brad Arthur in some way and the faint chance he might get drenched in Arthur jizz one day!
 
Poupou Escobar

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
91,084
oldmancraigy said:
Tough to speculate on one game alone.
I suppose the way they backed up the following season might say more?

Odds of that season going poorly due to difficult circumstances are slim. But even if the perfect storm conspired to happen, surely the year after would be a lift??
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They did very well to keep the same team together the following year, and then suffer minimal injuries. The 2021 side had 15 players make 20+ appearances, and 12 of them played in the grand final the year before. Amazing.
 
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lucablight

First Grade
Messages
6,493
Poupou Escobar said:
Semantics is you arguing over the Merriam Webster definition of hot favourites.

We had a better points differential because we had a genius coach who exploited the ruck rules. They might've had the same number of players in Origin in 2001 but they had so many guys with Origin experience on grand final day. I assume finals experience was similar between the two squads but I wouldn't be surprised if the Knights had more.

I just don't think Penrith played their best in the first half. Stage fright or shit coaching? Maybe Cleary forgot to book them a bus.
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It’s not semantics. Your claim about the Cowboys being hot favourites in the 2022 prelim final is just wrong. If they were paying $1.70 the line would have been around 2.5 which means there was a 50% probability of them winning by 2-3 points or us losing by 2-3 points. That’s not hot favourites dictionary definition or not.

I agree with you that in retrospect the Knights had the better team on paper in 2001. I’m saying that at the time the pre match data suggested that our record breaking team that season was more likely to win than the record breaking Panthers team in 2022. I don’t agree that they were unbeatable if we played our best. History can come down to the smallest margins. Despite being a dynasty don’t forget this group of Panthers lost in 2020 and had to take the scenic routes to win by 2 points in 2021 and 2023. Let’s not act like they destroyed everyone in their path to get their titles in all of those seasons.

I think Melbourne did to Penrith what Newcastle did to us in 2001. They ambushed the relatively young and inexperienced Panthers side who eventually got it together and showed their class but they ran out of time.
 
King-Gutho94

King-Gutho94

Coach
Messages
15,206
lucablight said:
It’s not semantics. Your claim about the Cowboys being hot favourites in the 2022 prelim final is just wrong. If they were paying $1.70 the line would have been around 2.5 which means there was a 50% probability of them winning by 2-3 points or us losing by 2-3 points. That’s not hot favourites dictionary definition or not.

I agree with you that in retrospect the Knights had the better team on paper in 2001. I’m saying that at the time the pre match data suggested that our record breaking team that season was more likely to win than the record breaking Panthers team in 2022. I don’t agree that they were unbeatable if we played our best. History can come down to the smallest margins. Despite being a dynasty don’t forget this group of Panthers lost in 2020 and had to take the scenic routes to win by 2 points in 2021 and 2023. Let’s not act like they destroyed everyone in their path to get their titles in all of those seasons.

I think Melbourne did to Penrith what Newcastle did to us in 2001. They ambushed the relatively young and inexperienced Panthers side who eventually got it together and showed their class but they ran out of time.
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2020 and 2001 were carbon copy GFs.

Even to when the last try was scored in the final minute to bring the margin to 6.
 
Poupou Escobar

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
91,084
lucablight said:
It’s not semantics. Your claim about the Cowboys being hot favourites in the 2022 prelim final is just wrong. If they were paying $1.70 the line would have been around 2.5 which means there was a 50% probability of them winning by 2-3 points or us losing by 2-3 points. That’s not hot favourites dictionary definition or not.

I agree with you that in retrospect the Knights had the better team on paper in 2001. I’m saying that at the time the pre match data suggested that our record breaking team that season was more likely to win than the record breaking Panthers team in 2022. I don’t agree that they were unbeatable if we played our best. History can come down to the smallest margins. Despite being a dynasty don’t forget this group of Panthers lost in 2020 and had to take the scenic routes to win by 2 points in 2021 and 2023. Let’s not act like they destroyed everyone in their path to get their titles in all of those seasons.

I think Melbourne did to Penrith what Newcastle did to us in 2001. They ambushed the relatively young and inexperienced Panthers side who eventually got it together and showed their class but they ran out of time.
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It might’ve been an ‘ambush’ (catching your opponents unprepared) but that’s not the same as ‘redlining’ which implies the preposterous idea of giving 110%

If you catch your opponents off guard that’s their misfortune and your own good luck. It’s not because you went harder or played better than your best.
 
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lucablight

First Grade
Messages
6,493
Poupou Escobar said:
It might’ve been an ‘ambush’ (catching your opponents unprepared) but that’s not the same as ‘redlining’ which implies the preposterous idea of giving 110%

If you catch your opponents off guard that’s their misfortune and your own good luck. It’s not because you went harder or played better than your best.
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We redlined in 2009 against the Dragons in the first week of the finals. A shame we couldn't do it in the grand final. They were an objectively better side than us. They even went on to win the premiership the next season.
 
Poupou Escobar

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
91,084
lucablight said:
We redlined in 2009 against the Dragons in the first week of the finals. A shame we couldn't do it in the grand final. They were an objectively better side than us. They even went on to win the premiership the next season.
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We didn't give 110%, the Dragons just didn't turn up and we were the lucky beneficiaries. It happens.
 
84 Baby

84 Baby

Referee
Messages
29,637
Poupou Escobar said:
It might’ve been an ‘ambush’ (catching your opponents unprepared) but that’s not the same as ‘redlining’ which implies the preposterous idea of giving 110%

If you catch your opponents off guard that’s their misfortune and your own good luck. It’s not because you went harder or played better than your best.
Click to expand...
It is preposterous. Everyone knows in finals all players are giving around 140-160%. The eventual champions are probably giving closer to 200%
 
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