Run Home Predictions

[strider]

Are they though? They just got past Manly who had half their team out, had a good game vs the broncos, and then ran over a cowboys team that is floundering imo...

whilst i have no doubts they'll run up a cricket score against the tigers this weekend, i certainly dont fancy them up against Storm in Melbourne with Hughes back. So that leaves the Souths game - win and they make it, lose and they're out.

Manly out braved them

 

[Poupou Escobar]

But were Nanai and Cotter and Dearden amongst the best players last year?

What about Drown? Or Papali’i the year before? Young players are capable of breakout seasons. Get enough of them in the same team and you can go from bottom four to top four in the space of a year.

What about Hynes or other Cronulla players?
Chicken and egg Poo.

If it’s all Payten why were the Cowboys so shit last year? Robinson won a comp in his first season. It doesn’t take 12 months for a coach to prepare a team but it might take that long for a youngster to go from nuffy to genuine first grader.

 

[the phantom menace]

So assuming Storm beat Brisbane, our win over the Bulldogs will put us back to 5th place - a much needed buffer for when we face Brisbane and Melbourne the following two weeks.

But will our coach, captain and squad actually bother to turn up and make this game a win? And it should be a strong win against the Bulldogs, if we're fair dinkum.

 

[Angry_eel]

So assuming Storm beat Brisbane, our win over the Bulldogs will put us back to 5th place - a much needed buffer for when we face Brisbane and Melbourne the following two weeks.

But will our coach, captain and squad actually bother to turn up and make this game a win? And it should be a strong win against the Bulldogs, if we're fair dinkum.

We wont beat the Bulldogs. We only get ready to play top teams.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

We wont beat the Bulldogs. We only get ready to play top teams.

We go okay against bottom eight sides. Souths and the Chooks have been worse:

Team	Record vs current (end of round 22) bottom 8
Panthers	100% (11/11)
Cowboys	85% (11/13)
Sharks	85% (11/13)
Broncos	82% (9/11)
Eels	82% (9/11)
Storm	82% (9/11)
Souths	75% (9/12)
Roosters	60% (6/10)

 

[strider]

Gee the roosters are lucky having only had 10 matches against bottom 8 teams. Imagine how much worse they would be if they had more .....

 

[King-Gutho94]

We go okay against bottom eight sides. Souths and the Chooks have been worse:

Team	Record vs current (end of round 22) bottom 8
Panthers	100% (11/11)
Cowboys	85% (11/13)
Sharks	85% (11/13)
Broncos	82% (9/11)
Eels	82% (9/11)
Storm	82% (9/11)
Souths	75% (9/12)
Roosters	60% (6/10)

Can you add in another column who these teams have to lost too in the bottom 8.

Our 2 losses were teams who were dead last and in woeful form at the time.

Not just losing to the 10th or 11th place teams.

 

[hybrideel]

Man, the sharks got absolutely kissed on the dick with the draw this year.
8 games again other top 8 sides with Storm the only team they played twice with 1 of those being without origin players

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Can you add in another column who these teams have to lost too in the bottom 8.

Our 2 losses were teams who were dead last and in woeful form at the time.

Not just losing to the 10th or 11th place teams.

It doesn’t matter where they were at the time or their form. Form can turn in a single week, and a team’s quality is only indicated by their results over a season, not their ladder position at round six. The sample is too small.

 

[Chipmunk]

Man, the sharks got absolutely kissed on the dick with the draw this year.
8 games again other top 8 sides with Storm the only team they played twice with 1 of those being without origin players

I think the NRL heavily manipulated the draw this season with the Top 6 from 2021 playing each other more than the bottom 10.

I'd be interested in some analysis from @Poupou Escobar that showed the different draws for last years Top 6 and Bottom 10.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

What does he look like, an analist?

 

[strider]

So if Melourne beat the Roosters at home next week, the top four teams are decided.

And if Canberra drop any game, the rest of the 8 is decided.

The last round might be a big rest-fest ... there will be home advantage to be decided - between cows n sharks and the bottom of the top 8 could still go various ways.

 

[hindy111]

So if Melourne beat the Roosters at home next week, the top four teams are decided.

And if Canberra drop any game, the rest of the 8 is decided.

The last round might be a big rest-fest ... there will be home advantage to be decided - between cows n sharks and the bottom of the top 8 could still go various ways.

It also possible Sharks,Cowboys and Storm will be playing for 2nd position.
Possible Brisbane,Parra,Canberra,Roosters,Souths are playing for 8th spot or home advantage.
Higher chance that games mean something then not.

The fact we play fist means we won't know. Storm will want to win to give themself a chance for 2nd spot. Or even 3rd. Theyd be confident of beating Sharks or Cowboys. They'd rather avoid Penrith.

 

[Bandwagon]

It also possible Sharks,Cowboys and Storm will be playing for 2nd position.
Possible Brisbane,Parra,Canberra,Roosters,Souths are playing for 8th spot or home advantage.
Higher chance that games mean something then not.

The fact we play fist means we won't know. Storm will want to win to give themself a chance for 2nd spot. Or even 3rd. Theyd be confident of beating Sharks or Cowboys. They'd rather avoid Penrith.

We'll mostly know where we will sit at the end of next round. If we beat the Donkeys we're guaranteed 5th or 6th, If the Storm win we can finish no higher than 5th, if they lose, we are playing them for fourth spot in the last round.

If we lose to the Donkeys, then it depends on the results of Storm / Roosters and Rabbits Cowboys on what position we play for the following week, given Rabbits play Roosters last round, one of those teams is gonna get two points, and one is gonna lose. So best they can finish is one on 30 points, the other on 32, that's if they both win next week.

If that's the case then the game against the Storm will secure 6th with a win, and 7/8/9th with a loss. I don't see 9th as at all likely, although there's always the possibility we get lapped in either of the last two games and that gives the Raiders a look in.

Anyways I feel like next week is far more important atm to win than the following week vs the Storm, we win and we secure a home final and possibly a shot at top four,

 

[eels_fan]

Cheering Canberra on for the next 3 games, cowboys next week and roosters the following.

then goodbye Souths.

good for us as they are the genuine definition of a bogey team for us, and great to see smug Latrell and Walker watching finals from the sidelines

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

Cheering Canberra on for the next 3 games, cowboys next week and roosters the following.

then goodbye Souths.

good for us as they are the genuine definition of a bogey team for us, and great to see smug Latrell and Walker watching finals from the sidelines

Maybe they'll do a Latrell and Cody Cam like they did when Hayne came back.

 

[the phantom menace]

We'll mostly know where we will sit at the end of next round. If we beat the Donkeys we're guaranteed 5th or 6th, If the Storm win we can finish no higher than 5th, if they lose, we are playing them for fourth spot in the last round.

If we lose to the Donkeys, then it depends on the results of Storm / Roosters and Rabbits Cowboys on what position we play for the following week, given Rabbits play Roosters last round, one of those teams is gonna get two points, and one is gonna lose. So best they can finish is one on 30 points, the other on 32, that's if they both win next week.

If that's the case then the game against the Storm will secure 6th with a win, and 7/8/9th with a loss. I don't see 9th as at all likely, although there's always the possibility we get lapped in either of the last two games and that gives the Raiders a look in.

Anyways I feel like next week is far more important atm to win than the following week vs the Storm, we win and we secure a home final and possibly a shot at top four,

Great summary - a home final would be a great outcome, and springboard into the finals series. So hopefully Arthur, Gutherson and the whole squad can bring the motivation to next week's game knowing what a win against the Broncos will guarantee us.

If other results mean we have a chance at securing 4th place the following week (which I don't think they will, as Storm should be motivated to do so for themselves against the Roosters) then so be it... Swapping the home final advantage for the chance to have a week 1 shot at sending the Panthers into a finals spiral is equally appealling.

 

[the phantom menace]

With two rounds left:

Penrith 40 (+302)
Cowboys 34 (+252)
Sharks 34 (+171)
Storm 32 (+259)
Parra 30 (+64)
Roosters 28 (+187)
Souths 28 (+130)
Brisbane 28 (+21)
-
Raiders 26 (-25)

I think we're still tracking well / likely to finish 5th. And the final round Roosters v Souths match will decide who finishes 8th.

 

[strider]

I reckon each of eels, roosters, rabbit, broncos will win one of their remaining games. Raiders should win both.

So will end up eels 32, roosters, souths, broncos, raiders 30

roosters and souths pts diff is far better so they are safe ... raiders probably wont make up the diff

So winning 14 games (10 losses) and 30 pts wont be enought to make the 8 .... which is unusual. In the past 26 has got you there. Which i think shows how shit nearly all the teams outside the 8 (9) are

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

I reckon each of eels, roosters, rabbit, broncos will win one of their remaining games. Raiders should win both.

So will end up eels 32, roosters, souths, broncos, raiders 30

roosters and souths pts diff is far better so they are safe ... raiders probably wont make up the diff

So winning 14 games (10 losses) and 30 pts wont be enought to make the 8 .... which is unusual. In the past 26 has got you there. Which i think shows how shit nearly all the teams outside the 8 (9) are

I can't remember if we had reduced rounds last year but apparently 22 points was enough to get a team in.