Smith is failing: the proof

[Misty Bee]

OK, lesson 1 in Footy 101 - How to spot a failing coach.

Lets take example A. Brian Smith. Many people think he doesn't need to buy a boat as he can walk on water. However, I have produced performance graph on Parramatta under Smith.

Firstly (shown below) is a graph mapping Parra'sminor premiership placings in the Smith years. The white line is a 3 year average. The trend shows a general decline since the first 2 years. The 2001 season is an outlier that defies that trend. Yet it's success was backed upin no other season.

The second shows our win/losss ratio for the same years, Not also the declining nature of the graph.

Now, homework. tell me how low it will sink before the coach is replaced?

 

[half]

hey misty bee, just wondering

do you not like brian smith or something?

 

[Misty Bee]

I'ts not that so much as I'm a Parra supporter, and I want to see them in their rightful place as one of the strongest, if not THE strongest team in the comp.

With me it's Parra first, coach second. Sadly, many have it the other way around.

 

[theicemandanno]

Didnt we finish 6th in 2002?

And 2001 is not an outlier, infact this year would be an outlier as it is the first time we failed in reaching the 8.

Look at the years 97-01, four out of five years we reached the top 4!

 

[Ron Jeremy]

Didnt we finish 6th in 2002?

And 2001 is not an outlier, infact this year would be an outlier as it is the first time we failed in reaching the 8.

Look at the years 97-01, four out of five years we reached the top 4!

No we finished 8th!!

We have to stop thinking about what happened between 97-2001 and concentrate on the now!!

The graph is pretty convincing that where on a down hill spirral!!

If there where a top 5 instead of top 8 would everyone still be wanting to keep Smith on???

 

[theicemandanno]

Check Misty's post Ron. His placings were referring to the minor premiership

In the minor premiership we finished 6th

2002 Ladder
Team
Warriors 38
Newcastle 38
Brisbane 37
Easts 35
Cronulla 34
Parramatta 26
St_Geo-Illa 25
Canberra 25


nuff said.

 

[Ron Jeremy]

Check Misty's post Ron. His placings were referring to the minor premiership

In the minor premiership we finished 6th

2002 Ladder
Team
Warriors 38
Newcastle 38
Brisbane 37
Easts 35
Cronulla 34
Parramatta 26
St_Geo-Illa 25
Canberra 25


nuff said.

My mistake!!

Still though regardless of where we finished we still only won 10 games which isn't a satisfactory performance by our standards!!

 

[The Colonel]

Misty,

Do your graphs also show the rise and fall of other clubs? In particular I would like you to look at the Warriors, Canberra, Melbourne and Penrith. You could also throw in Brisbane and Newcastle.

If a comparison is taken between these clubs and the clubs that have been at the top of the ladder during the past three years I think you will find that as a result of the improvement of the first four clubs mentioned other clubs - the Eels included - have also fallen over this period. The strength of the first four clubs have been increased during that time due to many different reasons.

If we also put into that graph the number of the top 25 players who were injured or unavailable during the period from 2001 to the end of the 2003 season you could also use that to explain your graph. The amount of injuries has slowly increased since the Grand Final in 2001.

It could also prove your point that Brian Smith is in your opinion crap and deserves to be sent packing quick smart.

Basically a graph can be used to prove any number of things.

You know, I know, HJ knows and every other Parramatta fan knows that the past two years have been worse than crap for want of a better word. You, me, HJ and every other Parramatta fan want Parramatta to return to the top of the ladder - who wouldn't. I want my son to see what I have seen - the Eels in all their glory running a victory lap around Telstra Stadium (I know it was the SCG but unfortunately that don't happen anymore)

Whether Brian Smith is the right bloke to get us and keep us at the top is a tough question. The Eels board at this stage have said they will support him for now - I understand that this is not your preferred option - and it may not necessarily be the right option either.

If we have all players available next year and we perform anywhere near the way we did at the start of this season than your fears will be warranted - and the board and myself and the majority of the other fans will probably raise the same questions that you have.

If we are sitting in the top six then the Eels board and HJ will be proved right and their justification in having Brian Smith at the helm will be warranted.

Time is a wonderful thing and its a shame at this stage that we have to wait....

 

[eloquentEEL]

There is of course another way to interpret the graph. It shows that Parra is oscillating between good and bad. After Parra does well, it drops off, then it comes back even stronger, then it drops off even more.

From 97-01 this was happening over a one year period. Then Parra did extremely well from the beginning of 01 to mid 02 (one and a half seasons), then they went extremely crap from mid 02 to mid 03. The second half of 03, Parra has started to bounce back and this is under Smith and it will hopefully last for one and a half seasons to go through till the end of 04. Your graph supports that Smith is good at bouncing back and taking the team higher than the previous peak. This is why I feel he is the guy to take us to the premiership in 04, as it would have to beat the previous peak of runner up in 01.

If anything, you should call for Smith's head just after he delivers the premiership next year because history shows that performance slacks off after a good year. But of course, you'll want to keep him because he will have proven to you that he is capable of winning a premiership.

What I'd love to see:
Parra wins the premiership in 04 under Smith.
Smith leaves the head coaching job on a winning note, stepping aside for JT to take over. Meanwhile, Smith remains as director of coaching at the Eels and takes up the head coach role for NSW.

 

[slippery eel]

When did rugby league become the NFL with stats and graphs?. Do you have a pie chart?. :lol:

 

[Dogs Of War]

When did rugby league become the NFL with stats and graphs?. Do you have a pie chart?. :lol:

I like apple pie charts, do you have one of those?

 

[The Colonel]

When did rugby league become the NFL with stats and graphs?. Do you have a pie chart?. :lol:

When Big Jack was around actually - he was the first one to make use of tackle counts, hit ups, metres gained etc etc......

 

[El Diablo]

When did rugby league become the NFL with stats and graphs?. Do you have a pie chart?. :lol:

Brian Smith is apparently a big fan of the technical side of NFL coaching. I saw it on some TV show once.

 

[The Colonel]

When did rugby league become the NFL with stats and graphs?. Do you have a pie chart?. :lol:

Brian Smith is apparently a big fan of the technical side of NFL coaching. I saw it on some TV show once.

So are Hagan, Bennett, Elliott and Folkes - I think a lot of clubs have sent their coaches to America to learn from the coaches in the NFL - Jack Gibson was always quoting Bear Bryant in his books and spent some time in San Francisco and Denver I believe.....

 

[Freak]

MB your right!!! How could we be so stupid to doubt you!!

It is so clear now you have put it into chart form for all us so called Smith lovers.

Lets get rid of him!!

Misty I admire your hunger for success and it is supporters like yourself that set such a high standard for our club, but I still think your barking up the wrong tree.

Perhaps a graph in player movement, or salary cap restrictions, or injury statistics would show a much bigger picture. All of which are barriers clubs must overcome, especially after long periods of success.

My own personal opinion is that Smith as a coach and club person performed expectionally better this year than last year, considering all barriers. In saying this I know there is room for improvement, and I hope next year we will see this, and my friend you will have to eat humble pie.
(I guess that goes both ways though :? )

 

[bazza]

It would be interesting to see a graph of the few years before Smith arrived.

My opinion: Smith is a great coach to get in if your club is in disarray (like Parra were pre 97). He sets up systems so that players improve and produces a fair few decent players. He may not produce superstars but he can make average footballers into competitive first graders. What he doesn't do the best is win matches on the day. It would be good if he was the club coach and someone else was in charge of the first grade team on the day.

 

[slippery eel]

Anyone remember when Parra won the world sevens in 1997 and Smith held up the trophy at his house and said, this is just the start of things to come. 6 years on and we have only won another world sevens trophy!. I still like Smithy though.

 

[El Diablo]

I still like Smithy though.

But do you think he's a good coach?

 

[slippery eel]

I still like Smithy though.

But do you think he's a good coach?

i think he's an excellent coach.... just unlucky at the end of the year!. In my opinion he is as good as Gould, Fulton, Anderson etc.

 

[El Diablo]

I still like Smithy though.

But do you think he's a good coach?

i think he's an excellent coach.... just unlucky at the end of the year!. In my opinion he is as good as Gould, Fulton, Anderson etc.

So after 36 years are Cronulla just as good a club as Parra were after 36 except they get unlucky at the end of the year?