Spring 2020

[Sans Souci Sainter]

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song for the day...

Pure Massacre - Silverchair

For me yesterday. Yikes.

 

[Sans Souci Sainter]

I took more long-rang antepost bets this year. Placed them around the start of August. Apart from Classique Legend, they’ve all looked good on paper with their odds halved by the time the race rolls around and all busted on the day.

I’m conflicted in even putting Russian Cameltoe in my Cup F4.

 

[hineyrulz]

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I took more long-rang antepost bets this year. Placed them around the start of August. Apart from Classique Legend, they’ve all looked good on paper with their odds halved by the time the race rolls around and all busted on the day.

I’m conflicted in even putting Russian Cameltoe in my Cup F4.

I backed Hit the Shot after his fourth at Flemington 2 starts ago, got 31-1. If Kersley doesn't fall asleep while they crawled up front i would of had a more than handy collect.

 

[to_ddeath]

I backed Hit the Shot after his fourth at Flemington 2 starts ago, got 31-1. If Kersley doesn't fall asleep while they crawled up front i would of had a more than handy collect.

Had it in a few things, was stiff to not win IMO..Johnny Get Angry was close to my mood at the time so should’ve had it as a backup option.

 

[to_ddeath]

Tiger Moth at 8.50 Is yes please, should of beaten Santiago in that Derby.


How pissed was I last night Stratum Albion is a f**king hurdler FFS!!



Bea Arthur has more chance growing some hair or coaching a premiership.

We needed a new Wicklow Brave, he is the plum plod for the job.
Great top 10 option.

 

[Sphagnum]

Neufbosc ran fourth in his Perth debut. What a horse.

 

[Sphagnum]

Verry Elegant to stamp herself as one of the best stayers in the world. Load up, lads

 

[hineyrulz]

Verry Elegant to stamp herself as one of the best stayers in the world. Load up, lads

Will the track have enough give in it for her??? And will they go hard enough up front so she doesn't pull her head off??? If she gets pace in the race she has the best turn of foot in the race. She's going in everything for mine.

 

[to_ddeath]

Will the track have enough give in it for her??? And will they go hard enough up front so she doesn't pull her head off??? If she gets pace in the race she has the best turn of foot in the race. She's going in everything for mine.

Hoping another international or 2 challenges the Lloyd runners early or it becomes a possible repeat of last year.

 

[slamminsam246]

Surprise Baby my top pick — re-watched last year's cup 5x in the last week, what an amazing run for 5th. They go even the slightest bit harder up front, she'll fly home for the chocs methinks (+QLDerrr!). Finche also caught eye so goes in everything. Old man has convinced me Avilius is the best roughy (apparently track is wet up cup morning making it more like a soft 5???) I like the Chosen One at odds too....
Want one more for trifecters. Leaning to the toppy or the Prince.... ??

 

[to_ddeath]

I’m down to the following -

Locals

VE
Cameltoe
Baby

overseas

Moth
Dragon
POA
MOR

AVD can’t win with 58.5 but has to go in exotics for sure.

 

[Lemon Squash]

Open cup as always, I’ll be playing multiples and just having a bit of fun. Probably the most exposed form we have had for a while, I always like trying to find an international that’s fallen through the cracks but they’ve all raced here previously except the hurdler and Tiger Moth.

I really want to pot Tiger Moth, every fibre of my punting brain says it can’t win because its having its 5th ever race start up against seasoned international quality stayers and it’s flown half way around the world without a lead up run. But it’s hard to ignore Rekindling/Cross Counter/Ill Paradiso from the last few years and Tiger Moths form looks far superior to all of those so I have to throw it in.

Will be playing these boys in my exotics

AVD
Finche
Prince of Arran
Surprise Baby
Warning
Tiger Moth

Warning is my roughie, I’m convinced it’s flying and the Freedmans are no mugs...forget it’s last run nothing went right for it. Its 2 from 4 at Flemington, the other two starts was this prep first up over unsuitable 1600 ran a cracker at $100s then it should have just about won the Turnbull. Decent gate, good track and it will eat up the 3200. Not sure if he has the class but I think he can bob up for exotics.

I love VE but the 3200, tricky gate and hard track there is just too many negatives and you can’t throw them all in.

 

[lockyno1]

Very tricky race, however as I've been saying for months the local chances are pretty ordinary and this is a better international brigade this year.

For the record the chances I have are

AVD- Swap the barriers and it belts VE in the CC, miracle it got so close.
Master of Reality- Probably the best roughie has some decent form over this distance and unlike many European plods has a turn of foot.
Sir Dragonet- Usually hate a Cox to Melbourne double but this horse looks like it will appreciate the trip. Only slight question is whether it's a much better horse on soft ground or worse.
Prince of Arran- just flies in Australia and it's last run was so eye catching. Kah on a positive as she's the most in form jock in Australia.
Warning- a must for multiples, is flying and will appreciate 3200m
Tiger Moth- Best credentialed horse who is better than Ill Parisso who would have bolted in last year had Frankie Dodgem Cars Dettori not taken 4 horses out! 3yr old European is the best formline generally and he's the best of the lot who have come out. Barrier just means we'll get a better price.

Notes:

1. Very Eelegant I have of not getting the trip. Elite over 2400m, I have questions over 2 miles.
2. Suprise Baby- not going well enough to even be remotely confident. Leaving it out of everything.
3. Russian Camelot- just no. Beating Dalasan over 3200m in a shocking SA Derby isn't the right formline.

 

[to_ddeath]

Very tricky race, however as I've been saying for months the local chances are pretty ordinary and this is a better international brigade this year.

For the record the chances I have are

AVD- Swap the barriers and it belts VE in the CC, miracle it got so close.
Master of Reality- Probably the best roughie has some decent form over this distance and unlike many European plods has a turn of foot.
Sir Dragonet- Usually hate a Cox to Melbourne double but this horse looks like it will appreciate the trip. Only slight question is whether it's a much better horse on soft ground or worse.
Prince of Arran- just flies in Australia and it's last run was so eye catching. Kah on a positive as she's the most in form jock in Australia.
Warning- a must for multiples, is flying and will appreciate 3200m
Tiger Moth- Best credentialed horse who is better than Ill Parisso who would have bolted in last year had Frankie Dodgem Cars Dettori not taken 4 horses out! 3yr old European is the best formline generally and he's the best of the lot who have come out. Barrier just means we'll get a better price.

Notes:

1. Very Eelegant I have of not getting the trip. Elite over 2400m, I have questions over 2 miles.
2. Suprise Baby- not going well enough to even be remotely confident. Leaving it out of everything.
3. Russian Camelot- just no. Beating Dalasan over 3200m in a shocking Adelaide Cup isn't the right formline.

agree with Hiney, VE settles & she’ll take a power of beating. Just needs some pace & that is the only query IMO.
Either top 3 or a Jameka kinda finish.
Baby will probably end up unders because of the name.
Probably the first I’ll chuck off if narrowing it down. Last run a worry.
Camel won the SA Derby over 2500 not the Adelaide Cup lol.
Still technically a NH 3yo so cant completely rule him out.

 

[lockyno1]

agree with Hiney, VE settles & she’ll take a power of beating. Just needs some pace & that is the only query IMO.
Either top 3 or a Jameka kinda finish.
Baby will probably end up unders because of the name.
Probably the first I’ll chuck off if narrowing it down. Last run a worry.
Camel won the SA Derby over 2500 not the Adelaide Cup lol.
Still technically a NH 3yo so cant completely rule him out.

Arrh knew it was one of those silly Adelaide things with the Camel always get those two races mixed up! Beating Dalacat isn't great form lol. Already has been flogged this prep.

Jameka a good comparison and it jumped almost favourite that year. 2 miles is a huge stretch would need it ultra slow for me so it wouldn't feel like a pure 2 mile race for me. A sit and sprint would suit her but I doubt she'll get that when there are so many OBrien runners, one will be the pacemaker for Tiger Moth.

 

[hineyrulz]

Oh and agree about Warning being the best roughie, he’s a Flemington horse and if you just go on what he has done at Flemington this prep you have to throw him in somewhere.

 

[Sphagnum]

Surprise Baby my top pick — re-watched last year's cup 5x in the last week, what an amazing run for 5th. They go even the slightest bit harder up front, she'll fly home for the chocs methinks (+QLDerrr!). Finche also caught eye so goes in everything. Old man has convinced me Avilius is the best roughy (apparently track is wet up cup morning making it more like a soft 5???) I like the Chosen One at odds too....
Want one more for trifecters. Leaning to the toppy or the Prince.... ??

The chosen one will run a race from the draw for sure. He prefers a good track though imo. Avilius has more excuses than the farnan camp. Surprise baby is a massive chance like it was last year but I can’t ever see a situation where I would be backing it to beat verry elleegant

 

[Sphagnum]

Arrh knew it was one of those silly Adelaide things with the Camel always get those two races mixed up! Beating Dalacat isn't great form lol. Already has been flogged this prep.

Jameka a good comparison and it jumped almost favourite that year. 2 miles is a huge stretch would need it ultra slow for me so it wouldn't feel like a pure 2 mile race for me. A sit and sprint would suit her but I doubt she'll get that when there are so many OBrien runners, one will be the pacemaker for Tiger Moth.

Dalasan was desperately unlucky in the Turnbull and then got an absolute pike special in the CC

 

[lockyno1]

Dalasan was desperately unlucky in the Turnbull and then got an absolute pike special in the CC

Would dead set be 1000-1 in this race though. That’s not great form as a lead up into a Melb Cup.

 

[coolsteve]

Petticoat junction running Banbury provincials tomorrow don’t any of you get on till I place my bet. Don’t want crappy odds