The Run Home 2010

[Apey]

Probably getting in a little early here but it's a bye week and we've got under 10 games left to play.

We are currently sitting in 11th with:

+ 14 points
+ 6 wins
+ 9 losses
- 61 differential

and a bye in hand.

Our run home is:

RD17: BYE (Should get the 2 points here)
RD18: Sharks (H)
RD19: Raiders (A)
RD20: Cowboys (A)
RD21: Manly (H)
RD22: Bulldogs(H)
RD23: Warriors (A)
RD24: Broncos (H)
RD25: Dragons (H)
RD26: Storm (A)

Post your thoughts.

What position can you see us finishing on and do we have any hope of making the 8 with an estimate of 28 point cut off?

 

[Joker's Wild]

7 wins out of the next 10 games is certainly within the realms of possibility

Tough to pick which games we will win though, aside from the bye

 

[roopy]

If we are good enough that is the perfect draw. All the weak teams away and all the strong teams at home.
The problem is, we aren't good enough.
We could still sneak a final 8 spot if things go our way, but that would be a very good result.

 

[Spot On]

No doubt we could take 12 points (inc bye) but that leaves us on 26 points. You never know, not having the turnstile in the team really does give us an edge in defence we haven't had the first 12 rounds of the year.

 

[Yosh]

RD17: BYE Win
RD18: Sharks (H) Win
RD19: Raiders (A) Win
RD20: Cowboys (A) Win
RD21: Manly (H) Loss
RD22: Bulldogs(H) Win
RD23: Warriors (A) Loss
RD24: Broncos (H) Win
RD25: Dragons (H) Loss
RD26: Storm (A)Win

So that's 7 wins and a bye so puts us 30 pts. Usually not enough right? These days you need 30+ to get into he top 8 do you not?

AND I was being very generous...

 

[perverse]

6 wins will get us into the finals this year.

 

[Alex28]

I think we need to be sure of being in the 8 prior to Round 24, because that is an incredibly hard finish.

Although history suggests we will beat the Dragons given it is Old Boys Day...

 

[Jono078]

I don't see a reason we can't win the next 5 in a row. All those teams are there for the taking.

Warriors in NZ will be tough.

You would hope the Storm would fall at the end of the season, but surely they'll be up for their last game the very least.

 

[Serc]

A par score over the years for 8th place at the end of round 16 is around 16-18 points...and given we are on 14 (and have the bye next week), and the Storm have sucked their fair share of points into a black hole at the bottom of the ladder, we are very much in it.

Its just a matter of how much they want it - everyone knows what they were capable of last year.

 

[keeney]

Storm are losing their polish and desire. It started to show in their lack of grind and resolve that normally would have seen them win a game like the Rabbitohs one. The last round is the worst of all the remaining rounds to have them, as I'm sure they'll want to finish on a high.

 

[Serc]

Agreed with everyone who has suggested they will be hard to beat in round 26. The only thing that may derail that is the full investigation leading to the (current) playing group being torn to pieces, both literally and figuratively. Which is possible but you'd think not as likely as a general loss in form or a maintaining of their current (mostly good) form.

Aside from the big negatives for us, the only positive of this whole Storm thing is that it makes achieving the 8 that little bit easier for an also-ran team such as ourselves.

 

[Baron Vo Mandor]

I don't see a reason we can't win the next 5 in a row. All those teams are there for the taking.

Have we been watching a different team this year?

Like has been said we can make the finals if we are good enough, and I really hope we get a decent run of form so we do so......

But.....

Based on what I've seen we'll be lucky to jag 3-4 more wins.

 

[Noname36]

We're improving no doubt, but I can't see us making the finals this year.

Our forward pack is just too weak unfortunately. If we keep improving though, I'll feel quite confident going into 2011 with some of our new signings. They might not be brilliant players that we've bought, but it's a change, and that's certainly what we need at the moment.

 

[RHCP]

Making the 8 this year will be a struggle no doubt, but as long as we beat the teams that are within our range at the moment (Sharks, Cowboys, Warriors, Bulldogs) and snare another two against the top teams we could sneak into 8th place. That being said, I'm predicting that our last three rounds of Broncos, Dragons and Storm will put us out of the 8.

 

[Jobdog]

The next three weeks after the bye will make or break the season. We've got the bye this week, then the Sharks, Raiders and Cowboys - all of whom are below us on the ladder. Traditionally we struggle against these sorts of teams, but if we were to win two of the next three and then include the bye, we'll be on 20 points heading into the final six rounds.

The last three weeks is an incredibly difficult run into the finals should we still be in the mix, but we need to grab points over the next month to give us a realistic shot.

 

[Baron Vo Mandor]

The next three weeks after the bye will make or break the season. We've got the bye this week, then the Sharks, Raiders and Cowboys - all of whom are below us on the ladder. Traditionally we struggle against these sorts of teams, but if we were to win two of the next three and then include the bye, we'll be on 20 points heading into the final six rounds.

The last three weeks is an incredibly difficult run into the finals should we still be in the mix, but we need to grab points over the next month to give us a realistic shot.

Top post.

 

[Serc]

From 08 onwards, we have reasonably good records against the last 3 teams we face this year:

Saints - I remember watching an annoying loss when we were very much in the game at EAS in 2008, a number of ridiculous refereeing decisions and a final score of 24-16. 09 we beat them in Kogarah (when they were top of the ladder)

Broncos - at EAS in early 08 we scored as many tries as them but Kurt couldn't kick any goals, though we lost to them in R26 up here when we were a little flat after the famous victory the week before against the Storm. 09 we dominated them at EAS in the game where the power went out. And we beat them up here 2 months ago this year.

Storm - our record against these guys is probably our best of the three (especially when compared to other teams). We played them down there first in 2008, some of you will probably remember us defending our line for set after set after set - kept them scoreless for 60 mins I think. Even better was (in my opinion) one of our greatest ever wins in round 25, Bedsys farewell, no Bedsy, needing to win to be a chance of making the 8, nobody giving us a chance to win (bookies had us at +12.5 head start) and we just won 17-16 with a number of memorable moments. 09 saw us play down in Melbourne and beat them comphrehensively in all departments except on the scoreboard, 18-14. And then we blew them off the park in Stone's first game as coach back at EAS late in the year. Of course we all recall us throwing away the match against them at EAS early this year.

So overall I like to think that if we're in a reasonable amount of form - we should be able to compete with all 3 of these teams, and doesn't hurt to have Saints on Old Boys day either, where we win virtually every year!

 

[Apey]

If we are good enough that is the perfect draw. All the weak teams away and all the strong teams at home.
The problem is, we aren't good enough.
We could still sneak a final 8 spot if things go our way, but that would be a very good result.

Pretty much agree with this.

For a team that is consistently average team you'd look at that draw and be happy with it... but with our team, who knows what will happen. We could lose all the 'easy' games and flourish in the 'hard' ones for all we know..

 

[Radioactive Man]

Just to note, that every game this weekend has gone our way in reagards to helping our position on the ladder.

 

[Johns Magic]

If we win next week and Parra lose we will be 10th.

Unfortunately Parra are taking on...you guessed it...the Cowboys