Collingwood may be safe optioning, but I still think their overall list is ordinary.
Both Brisbane & Collingwood played off two years ago and both will miss the finals this season.
Brisbane will end up winning double the games, largely on the back of a lesser injury list (although they haven't enjoyed the best of years themselves) and a stronger home ground advantage.
Brisbane's list has fallen noticeably over the past two years, but Collingwood (who as it was, did brilliantly to make GFs with such a leanly talented list) has fallen a lot further.
Collingwood is mirroring Hawthorn in many ways.
Hawthorn were morally a grand finalist in 2001, but endured nightmare injury runs across 2002-03. At the end of 2003 people were still clinging to the fantasy that Hawthorn was that 2001 side just needing a break from fate to come good again. It was bullsh*t, of course, as player departures, other players not coming on, dubious coaching, and the after effects of long term injury had reduced the overall list to rabble.
Anybody still thinking of Collingwood at the end of 2005 as being the same Collingwood 2003 side just needing a good injury run to come good is committing similar folly to those who so badly misjudged Hawthorn.