Time to crack out Arko's ARL blueprint

[mongoose]

again why are you comparing any nrl game to an afl one? Or are you really suggesting an expansion team in that slot in place of manly would only draw that sort of audience? The facts would suggest you are completely wrong if you are.
Let’s look at the numbers shall we? 460k Fox subscribers, probably around 200-250k nrl fans. That means around an avg of 16k per team at best are watching nrl on fox. Quite clearly given games get around 150k-250k the majority of the audience are neutrals. Let’s say we booted manly, theoretically fox might lose around 10k subscribers but bringing in another big city team could deliver them more than that given population differences. That’s the cold hard no emotional commercial reality.

Kayo has (or had) over 400k subscribers as well. Manly may get modest crowds but they have far more fans than 16k. I'm all for expansion but this is the one thing you don't get. These clubs have built up fanbase all over the country for decades who will watch NRL games on TV.
It's not as simple as "manly only average 11k per game so if we dump them we only lose 11k fans".

 

[Coastbloke]

Really? It cant be more than a 10 minute walk from station to oval.

Honestly can't remember. From memory 20-30 mins? Long time I've done that walk..lol

Edit: 17 mins via Miller Street, 18 via Walker Street...

 

[Coastbloke]

id suggest the local demographic wouldn’t care too much for an nrl team on many levels at Chatswood.

Then there's that..!!

 

[tri_colours]

again why are you comparing any nrl game to an afl one? Or are you really suggesting an expansion team in that slot in place of manly would only draw that sort of audience? The facts would suggest you are completely wrong if you are.
Let’s look at the numbers shall we? 460k Fox subscribers, probably around 200-250k nrl fans. That means around an avg of 16k per team at best are watching nrl on fox. Quite clearly given games get around 150k-250k the majority of the audience are neutrals. Let’s say we booted manly, theoretically fox might lose around 10k subscribers but bringing in another big city team could deliver them more than that given population differences. That’s the cold hard no emotional commercial reality.

In yor mind maybe

Do you think the titans wouldv'e got 250k in the Sat. 5.30 timeslot?

We will assume the big city team you are talking about is Peth. They rarely get more than 180k in AFL, so how in the hell are they going to average 250k in RL.

 

[Perth Red]

In yor mind maybe

Do you think the titans wouldv'e got 250k in the Sat. 5.30 timeslot?

We will assume the big city team you are talking about is Peth. They rarely get more than 180k in AFL, so how in the hell are they going to average 250k in RL.

Not sure, can’t be arsed to go through reams of webpages to find tv audiences. They did get Rd1 2019 titans v raiders fox 244k suggesting my theory is correct given these would be two of the smallest supported clubs.

take rd4 4 last year as another example manly v Souths (one of the best supported clubs) Saturday 168k, titans v warriors in the 6pm Friday slot 184k.

youve cherry picked one game at a time everyone is sat home social isolating and fearing it may be last bit of footy they get for the year. To have a valid comparison you’d need to go round by round, time slot and opposition. Knock yourself out.

again where you getting your afl figures from, a quick google shows Eagles v Collingwood rd 3 Saturday pay tv audience 232k and like I’ve told you 90% of Fox viewers are neutrals, not fans of the clubs playing. There’d only be around 20-30k viewers watching who are fans of the actual 2 clubs taking part.

 

[tri_colours]

Not sure, can’t be arsed to go through reams of webpages to find tv audiences. They did get Rd1 2019 titans v raiders fox 244k suggesting my theory is correct given these would be two of the smallest supported clubs.

take rd4 4 last year as another example manly v Souths (one of the best supported clubs) Saturday 168k, titans v warriors in the 6pm Friday slot 184k.

youve cherry picked one game at a time everyone is sat home social isolating and fearing it may be last bit of footy they get for the year. To have a valid comparison you’d need to go round by round, time slot and opposition. Knock yourself out.

again where you getting your afl figures from, a quick google shows Eagles v Collingwood rd 3 Saturday pay tv audience 232k and like I’ve told you 90% of Fox viewers are neutrals, not fans of the clubs playing. There’d only be around 20-30k viewers watching who are fans of the actual 2 clubs taking part.

2019 1st round Manly 260k

Stop trying to nit pick and cover your own arse, get back to the point. Mongoose's post pretty much says it all.

 

[Perth Red]

2019 1st round Manly 260k

Stop trying to nit pick and cover your own arse, get back to the point. Mongoose's post pretty much says it all.

kayo nrl is avg less than 70k a game so that’s around 4,500 a club. You believe what you want but from the fox viewing figures the majority of fans watching individual games are neutral and games have little variation in teams playing. I watch around 4-5 games a week and suggest many subscribers are similair.

 

[tri_colours]

kayo nrl is avg less than 70k a game so that’s around 4,500 a club. You believe what you want but from the fox viewing figures the majority of fans watching individual games are neutral and games have little variation in teams playing. I watch around 4-5 games a week and suggest many subscribers are similair.

I keep an eye on the ratings and these wont be to far out.

Thursday/Friday Night they range from about 200-300k
Fri Evening about 170-250k
Sat 7.30 slot 230-340k
Sat 5.30 a bit less on both counts.
Sat 3.00 about 210/150k
Sun 2.00 about 220-160k
Sun 4.00 about 250-190k

Getting back to the main issue - you obviously don't believe me so re-read Mongoose's post.

 

[Dark Corner]

manly don’t represent or attract the vast majority of the northern beaches, that’s the big problem. They are taking up a spot and not really offering what the game needs, a club to represent and attract the 1million people of the northern Sydney region.

So what would you do if you were in charge with Northern Sydney situation ?

 

[The Great Dane]

Kayo has (or had) over 400k subscribers as well. Manly may get modest crowds but they have far more fans than 16k. I'm all for expansion but this is the one thing you don't get. These clubs have built up fanbase all over the country for decades who will watch NRL games on TV.
It's not as simple as "manly only average 11k per game so if we dump them we only lose 11k fans".

Any fans other than those 11k (in Manly's case it's actually 12-13k + people that regularly buy tickets and/or merchandise which are numbers we don't have but the clubs would to some degree, so in Manly's case it's probably closer to 16-20ishK) are unquantifiable and unfalsifiable.

In other words, not only does nobody know how many of them there are, but it's impossible to figure out how many there are. Further more, however many of them that there actually are, their "fandom" is so casual that most of them aren't of any monetary value to the club.

Who cares what the person who says they support a club, but has never attended a game, or bought any products from the club, thinks. They don't care enough about the club/sport to support it monetarily, so why should the club, or NRL, care about them.

I hate this argument, honestly it's the stupidest f**king thing. Can you imagine any other business saying 'what do you think is the opinion of those people that vaguely support or like our brand/product but have never bought it and never will'.

 

[Perth Red]

So what would you do if you were in charge with Northern Sydney situation ?

I’d have a plan for a new club with a new stadium to attract the whole region. Manly could buy in as part owners if they wished. Might take a few years to get there but there’d be a strategy in place to get there.

 

[Perth Red]

I keep an eye on the ratings and these wont be to far out.

Thursday/Friday Night they range from about 200-300k
Fri Evening about 170-250k
Sat 7.30 slot 230-340k
Sat 5.30 a bit less on both counts.
Sat 3.00 about 210/150k
Sun 2.00 about 220-160k
Sun 4.00 about 250-190k

Getting back to the main issue - you obviously don't believe me so re-read Mongoose's post.

thanks you’ve made the argument for me lol. It’s about time slots more than the two teams taking part.

 

[CC_Roosters]

NRL premiership- 12 teams

Promotion-relegation

• Bottom relegated from NRLP and replaced by 1st in NRLC
• 2nd bottom in NRLP joins 2nd to 4th in playoff for place in NRLP

NRL championship- 10 teams

Both home and away seasons

• NRLP 22 games
• NRL 18 games plus a top 5 bottom 5 split single round robin for total 22 games

Salary cap has no monetary value but is a percentage of club revenue
NRL grants based off a flat value plus tiered payments based on league position. I.e. prize money for trying hard and not rewarding mediocracy as every Australian completion in every sport tends to do.

22 professional teams

1. Brisbane
2. North Qld
3. Gold coast
4. Redcliffe
5. Ipswich
6. PNG
7. Newcastle
8. Northern bears (emphasis on the CC)
9. Manly
10. South's
11. East's
12. West's
13. Cronulla
14. Parramatta
15. Canterbury
16. Penrith
17. Perth
18. St George-illawarra (emphasis on the gong)
19. Melbourne
20. Canberra
21. Auckland
22. 2nd city based NZ club

 

[tri_colours]

Any fans other than those 11k (in Manly's case it's actually 12-13k + people that regularly buy tickets and/or merchandise which are numbers we don't have but the clubs would to some degree, so in Manly's case it's probably closer to 16-20ishK) are unquantifiable and unfalsifiable.

In other words, not only does nobody know how many of them there are, but it's impossible to figure out how many there are. Further more, however many of them that there actually are, their "fandom" is so casual that most of them aren't of any monetary value to the club.

Who cares what the person who says they support a club, but has never attended a game, or bought any products from the club, thinks. They don't care enough about the club/sport to support it monetarily, so why should the club, or NRL, care about them.

I hate this argument, honestly it's the stupidest f**king thing. Can you imagine any other business saying 'what do you think is the opinion of those people that vaguely support or like our brand/product but have never bought it and never will'.

Didn't Roy Morgan recently do a survey on fan numbers, I doubt that it would be that accurate . But not a bad guide. According to his results Manly had over 300 thousand fans. The more eyeballs on screens the more the commission will get and the larger the grant clubs will get. Jersey , socks it all counts.

 

[Perth Red]

Didn't Roy Morgan recently do a survey on fan numbers, I doubt that it would be that accurate . But not a bad guide. According to his results Manly had over 300 thousand fans. The more eyeballs on screens the more the commission will get and the larger the grant clubs will get. Jersey , socks it all counts.

10k attendees, 15k members, 30k watching on tv , but they have 300k fans?
Good one.

 

[tri_colours]

10k attendees, 15k members, 30k watching on tv , but they have 300k fans?
Good one.

30k watching on TV? What does this even mean PR?

Roy Morgan , the Commission , Ch9, Fox - they all have no idea. Its a good thing your here.

 

[The Great Dane]

Didn't Roy Morgan recently do a survey on fan numbers, I doubt that it would be that accurate . But not a bad guide. According to his results Manly had over 300 thousand fans. The more eyeballs on screens the more the commission will get and the larger the grant clubs will get. Jersey , socks it all counts.

The standard that Roy Morgan is using for their definition of a supporter is basically anybody that says they are.

Obviously the standard that Roy Morgan is using is practically useless from the clubs and NRL's point of view, because we can see from other metrics such as ratings, memberships, and attendance, that hundreds of thousands of the clubs so called supporters by Roy Morgan's standard are extremely rarely or never interacting with the clubs at all. In other words, hundreds of thousands of RM's supporters are not only never buying a product from their favorite club, but more often than not they aren't even watching any of the clubs games at all.

So basically we can't even agree that most of RM's supporters are actually supporters, but even if for sake of argument we do agree that they are, the vast majority of them support their club so loosely that their existence as a supporter has no impact on the club whatsoever, and never will, so there for the clubs and NRL shouldn't worry about them.

BTW, in Roy Morgan's most recent study Manly had 250K 'supporters', not over 300k.

 

[tri_colours]

The standard that Roy Morgan is using for their definition of a supporter is basically anybody that says they are.

Obviously the standard that Roy Morgan is using is practically useless from the clubs and NRL's point of view, because we can see from other metrics such as ratings, memberships, and attendance, that hundreds of thousands of the clubs so called supporters by Roy Morgan's standard are extremely rarely or never interacting with the clubs at all. In other words, hundreds of thousands of RM's supporters are not only never buying a product from their favorite club, but more often than not they aren't even watching any of the clubs games at all.

So basically we can't even agree that most of RM's supporters are actually supporters, but even if for sake of argument we do agree that they are, the vast majority of them support their club so loosely that their existence as a supporter has no impact on the club whatsoever, and never will, so there for the clubs and NRL shouldn't worry about them.

BTW, in Roy Morgan's most recent study Manly had 250K 'supporters', not over 300k.

So when Manly and Brisbane play a match on FTA that gets almost 1 million viewers. How many of those would be Manly fans?

just because you 'hate this argument' doesn't mean its isn't true.

 

[The Great Dane]

So when Manly and Brisbane play a match on FTA that gets almost 1 million viewers. How many of those would be Manly fans?

There's no way to tell with any accuracy. That's why many of these arguments about numbers of fans and how many are doing this or that are "unquantifiable and unfalsifiable".

You could say any number of those million people are Manly fans, and there's no reasonable way for you to prove it or for me to disprove it.

IMO, the reality is that for most matches the majority of people watching are probably neutrals.

just because you 'hate this argument' doesn't mean its isn't true.

This isn't the argument that I hate.

The argument I hate is the variations of 'there're all these unquantifiable and unfalsifiable fans, whom we know for a fact don't care enough about their club to put any money into it, but we'll piss them off if we touch their club, therefore we shouldn't do something that effects "their" club'.

What we are arguing right now is how many fans does each club have, and how are they interacting with their club, which is a related but different discussion.

I don't hate this argument, I just think it's totally pointless, because everybody has a different standard for what makes a fan, and even if we could agree on a standard (which we couldn't because you aren't an honest actor and will try to ludicrously stretch the definition as much as possible to support your point) there's still no way to quantify exactly how many there are.

But even if we could agree on a number of fans it's a waste of time because it doesn't matter how many fans a club has if most of those fans aren't actually putting anything of value into the club, so instead of pointlessly trying to quantify the unquantifiable, we should just should focus on the fans that are quantifiable and really matter; paying customers.

 

[Perth Red]

30k watching on TV? What does this even mean PR?

Roy Morgan , the Commission , Ch9, Fox - they all have no idea. Its a good thing your here.

you’re welcome.