Todd Greenberg has pretty much said one Sydney team will be relocated.

[Stallion]

If participation is on the decline in Manly (I can't find anything on the Roar about this, please link) to the point where a senior comp is untenable,
and as we all know the Eastern Suburbs competition can only function in partnership with other leagues,
and North Shore participation is relatively low.

Easts and Manly both have first grade teams, Norths don't but the Bears maintain a strong NSW Cup presence.
What does that tell us?
Participation in all 3 is well down from the glory days.
Manly and Roosters prove that a first grade team doesn't automatically translate to huge participation.

This tells me that the broader region of North-East Sydney doesn't need 3 professional RL teams and questions have to be asked whether it can support 2.
Eastern Suburbs, North Shore and Northern Beaches all share a quite similar demographic, no surprise that it's the Union heartland of Sydney.
Plonking another team back into the crowd isn't going to magically solve the problem.

Bears are already out of first grade,
Manly are on deaths door playing out of a condemned park,
Roosters are loaded with cash, and have the image, success, and stadium to capture that demographic.

I see 2 scenarios playing out, neither involve reviving the Bears back to NRL level.

1. Manly see the writing on the wall, and make the smart move to relocate up to Central Coast Stadium for at least half of their games.
They retain the Beaches and perhaps gain Upper Norther Shore as their junior base.
Roosters take the Bears and North Shore or Lower North Shore juniors as a feeder long-term, and take responsibility for growth and promotion in the area.
Manly, Easts, and Country RL come to some arrangement regarding Central Coast juniors.

2. Manly dig their heels in waiting for the Brookvale upgrade that has been promised forever and never happened.
Eventually they are left behind by first grade professional Rugby League and forced to drop back to NSW Cup.
Roosters take both Bears and Manly former territory as well as the Central Coast.

This tells me :You are totally ignorant and not a true advocate of rugby league!
Not only is your defeatist logic pathetic. It reeks of a weakness I've noted before and it's genuinely concerning. I've seen some pathetic stances before but instead of reinvigorating the area by getting the Bears and Manly Warringah rivaling eachother once again you choose this fanciful unproven path of disaster. Incredible! So dumb and negative!

 

[adamkungl]

Which part is in dispute

 

[flippikat]

I see 2 scenarios playing out, neither involve reviving the Bears back to NRL level.

1. Manly see the writing on the wall, and make the smart move to relocate up to Central Coast Stadium for at least half of their games.
They retain the Beaches and perhaps gain Upper Norther Shore as their junior base.
Roosters take the Bears and North Shore or Lower North Shore juniors as a feeder long-term, and take responsibility for growth and promotion in the area.
Manly, Easts, and Country RL come to some arrangement regarding Central Coast juniors.

2. Manly dig their heels in waiting for the Brookvale upgrade that has been promised forever and never happened.
Eventually they are left behind by first grade professional Rugby League and forced to drop back to NSW Cup.
Roosters take both Bears and Manly former territory as well as the Central Coast.

That's a pretty good read on the situation - what would you say are the chances of a 3rd scenario where Manly dig their heels in & get demoted (Like scenario 2), Roosters take over the whole North Shore/Northern Beaches, but another Sydney club (Neither Roosters, Sea-eagles or Bears) moves to the Central Coast?

 

[Perth Red]

That's a pretty good read on the situation - what would you say are the chances of a 3rd scenario where Manly dig their heels in & get demoted (Like scenario 2), Roosters take over the whole North Shore/Northern Beaches, but another Sydney club (Neither Roosters, Sea-eagles or Bears) moves to the Central Coast?

Its hard to see a regional area like Gosford being able to sustain an NRL club now that it takes around $28million of revenue a year to run one. They are going to be fighting the Sydney clubs for the NSW corporate $ and the fanbase may not be big enough to generate the merch and ticket sales needed. It also adds little to the NRL's TV value or revenue generation opportunity. Without a relocation its hard to see the CC ever getting a stand alone club or it be that appealing for an existing Sydney club, the candidates would be jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire.

 

[TheFrog]

That's a pretty good read on the situation - what would you say are the chances of a 3rd scenario where Manly dig their heels in & get demoted (Like scenario 2), Roosters take over the whole North Shore/Northern Beaches, but another Sydney club (Neither Roosters, Sea-eagles or Bears) moves to the Central Coast?

Manly won't lose their NRL status so long as they can pay the bills. The chances of the NRL accepting a Sydney club moving to another part of Sydney, especially a part of Sydney that has rejected a relocated team previously, appear remote.

 

[Perth Red]

Its quite funny to see which clubs have come out and made comment about how bad an idea it is; Manly, Penrith, Wests, Cronulla, Roosters. All clubs that would be a little nervous I suspect.

An amusing take on the situation
https://www.theroar.com.au/2019/03/...e-mooted-bears-comebacks-and-titans-rebrands/

 

[Stormwarrior82]

So you think they would pay more ,for a contract already signed.Just because the NRL says Thursday nights are crap ,"so pay us more"?
These pirates would take from their mother if they could.

My initial reply was about Foxtel’s debt issues which I think will be a non isssue in 6mnths time.

And to your question... no I don’t think the broadcasters will pay more if they have a contract already signed. But for 2023 they have nothing signed. If Nrl do expand to 18, the funding has been set by Foxtel and the afl. It’s finally a apple and apples comparison. I havent seen or heard anything that says to me that the Nrl won’t receive a better Aus broadcast deal. International Nrl competition streaming, SOO and international games will send us well and truely in front of the afl.

 

[flippikat]

Its quite funny to see which clubs have come out and made comment about how bad an idea it is; Manly, Penrith, Wests, Cronulla, Roosters. All clubs that would be a little nervous I suspect.

Good point. The "unthreatened" (for lack of a better word ) Sydney clubs have pretty much just kept their heads-down & gone about their business.

 

[Stormwarrior82]

Manly won't lose their NRL status so long as they can pay the bills. The chances of the NRL accepting a Sydney club moving to another part of Sydney, especially a part of Sydney that has rejected a relocated team previously, appear remote.

Yes I agree and so would the Nrl. I havent heard anything from Greenberg or Beattie about “forcing” any club. They wouldn’t and couldn’t (souths). But when club grants above the salary cap are slowly lowered over time, clubs that are struggling don’t make sound financial judgements they will die on there own accord. Nothing to with the Nrl.

In this day and age if a club is just paying there bills they won’t be able to compete and if they can’t compete they die. Fans and sponsors will walk. A new owner or a large investment would be more likely before a team merges or relocates.

 

[adamkungl]

That's a pretty good read on the situation - what would you say are the chances of a 3rd scenario where Manly dig their heels in & get demoted (Like scenario 2), Roosters take over the whole North Shore/Northern Beaches, but another Sydney club (Neither Roosters, Sea-eagles or Bears) moves to the Central Coast?

Difficult to see it happening.

Manly, Roosters, and Bears have all had obviously involvement in the Coast before/currently, which makes it a potentially attractive option for them, and breaks down the idea that they couldn't ever possibly move. Manly and Bears also based north. But other clubs?

(note that I don't think any of these are a particularly likely scenario, but lets play hypotheticals and say all teams are on an exactly even standing and any one of them could find themselves needing to make a move)

Dragons - Wollongong is the far more obvious option, they're already halfway there.

Panthers - Absolutely tied to Penrith, I couldn't see them existing anywhere else. They'd die before moving.

Tigers - Can't really see it after already merging. Would move FT to Campbeltown before leaving Sydney. I think they'd explore alternative options.

Rabbitohs - too big for the Central Coast, would be a waste. Perth Rabbitohs more likely.

Eels - Similar to Penrith. Entrenched into the city. Not a real reason I guess but I couldn't ever see them moving.

Cronulla - Outside chance? Having no real previous affinity with the CC though, and being on the opposite side of Sydney, not super likely. Perhaps they could undercut the Dragons in Wollongong, or perhaps they look for a bigger scalp and go Adelaide or Perth.

Bulldogs - Have moved around and flirted with name changes a couple of times since the 1990s. Another outside chance but like Souths I think they'd aim higher than what a regional town can offer.

 

[Perth Red]

Yes I agree and so would the Nrl. I havent heard anything from Greenberg or Beattie about “forcing” any club. They wouldn’t and couldn’t (souths). But when club grants above the salary cap are slowly lowered over time, clubs that are struggling don’t make sound financial judgements they will die on there own accord. Nothing to with the Nrl.

In this day and age if a club is just paying there bills they won’t be able to compete and if they can’t compete they die. Fans and sponsors will walk. A new owner or a large investment would be more likely before a team merges or relocates.

TBF he did actually say that it could be forced, hence the discussion around a possible criteria to make that decision. Of course it is all just smoke and mirrors to create some gossip away from the negative player press, but he didnt discount it in the interview.

 

[taipan]

My initial reply was about Foxtel’s debt issues which I think will be a non isssue in 6mnths time.

And to your question... no I don’t think the broadcasters will pay more if they have a contract already signed. But for 2023 they have nothing signed. If Nrl do expand to 18, the funding has been set by Foxtel and the afl. It’s finally a apple and apples comparison. I havent seen or heard anything that says to me that the Nrl won’t receive a better Aus broadcast deal. International Nrl competition streaming, SOO and international games will send us well and truely in front of the afl.

I hope you're right ,but I'm not sure of the financial capacities of the FTA stations.Ch10 with CBS backing seem to be a decent proposition,as they have little in the way of top line sport offering.
Negotiations would have to start in 2021, to give a better lead in time to make the final decisions and the public announcement in 2022.Not that far away in an uncertain Tv market here.

I agree we should be closer to the financial mark with the AFL deal.
If I was an A League exec I;d be concerned about their next Tv deals even Simon Hill from Fox admitted their ratings have been well down on expectations.

 

[Stallion]

Its hard to see a regional area like Gosford being able to sustain an NRL club now that it takes around $28million of revenue a year to run one. They are going to be fighting the Sydney clubs for the NSW corporate $ and the fanbase may not be big enough to generate the merch and ticket sales needed. It also adds little to the NRL's TV value or revenue generation opportunity. Without a relocation its hard to see the CC ever getting a stand alone club or it be that appealing for an existing Sydney club, the candidates would be jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire.

The Central Coast Bears would certainly not be fighting with other Sydney clubs. They would necessarily have the North Sydney CBD backing then in bucket loads. Sine of you can't work this out. The win/ win is front of your faces and you still opt to white ant the code?! Pathetic and so negative it astounds genuine rugby-league. I'm aware it's not much of a deal to you ignoramus established. But it certainly extremely negative and ignorant to the extreme level. Shame on you!

 

[Perth Red]

The Central Coast Bears would certainly not be fighting with other Sydney clubs. They would necessarily have the North Sydney CBD backing then in bucket loads. Sine of you can't work this out. The win/ win is front of your faces and you still opt to white ant the code?! Pathetic and so negative it astounds genuine rugby-league. I'm aware it's not much of a deal to you ignoramus established. But it certainly extremely negative and ignorant to the extreme level. Shame on you!

yawn.

 

[Stallion]

yawn.

Logic hurts ! Doesn't it!?

 

[Stallion]

That's a pretty good read on the situation - what would you say are the chances of a 3rd scenario where Manly dig their heels in & get demoted (Like scenario 2), Roosters take over the whole North Shore/Northern Beaches, but another Sydney club (Neither Roosters, Sea-eagles or Bears) moves to the Central Coast?

Filppikat: You are a flip!

 

[TheFrog]

Nothing to with the Nrl.

That's actually debatable due to the financial model the NRL runs under. The clubs put on a show and bear all costs, and the NRL charges TV stations and others for rights to televise it, passing the proceeds or part thereof on to the clubs. If the NRL decides to put the squeeze on clubs, it would have to do it to them all, including those it doesn't want to send broke. Doing this would be morally questionable and not in accordance with recent agreements and I doubt the NRL has the stomach for it.

 

[flippikat]

Filppikat: You are a flip!

Your reaction to what essentially are brainstorming sessions - basically resorting to name-calling - is highly immature.

I get that you're passionate about the game (so are a lot of us here - if not all), and the possibility of further rationalisation in Sydney worries you... but the signs are there that 9 teams in one market is unsustainable if we also want to expand.

 

[Stallion]

Your reaction to what essentially are brainstorming sessions - basically resorting to name-calling - is highly immature.

I get that you're passionate about the game (so are a lot of us here - if not all), and the possibility of further rationalisation in Sydney worries you... but the signs are there that 9 teams in one market is unsustainable if we also want to expand.

Nope. I've seen your snide and lowlife support of reckless ideas to know you're a dodgy dude. You are not a genuine rugbyleague fan .That's for certain. Perhaps a rugby union background involved I suggest!

 

[Stallion]

Your reaction to what essentially are brainstorming sessions - basically resorting to name-calling - is highly immature.

I get that you're passionate about the game (so are a lot of us here - if not all), and the possibility of further rationalisation in Sydney worries you... but the signs are there that 9 teams in one market is unsustainable if we also want to expand.

And do a maths course while you are coming up with this flawed and damaging support for lunatic ideas!