A good article when we consider adding a third Brisbane club before we actually expand the game (lets be honest more Brisbane clubs isnt 'expanding' its just consolidating what we have.)
Does The NRL Want To Expand, Or Does It Just Want To Have More Teams?
The size of the National Rugby League (NRL) is something that never seems to be off the agenda. While I am the #NRLOutsider, it’s hardly an issue that I’m unaware of, because it’s also never really off the agenda in the UK either, where we expand and contract like an accordion.
The NRL, however, seems to have a slightly different problem: it expands, but it doesn’t get bigger. Since Melbourne Storm joined the competition in 1998, it hasn’t made any concerted effort to actually increase the footprint of the sport, and given that league supremo Peter V’Landys seems principally concerned with adding another team in Brisbane, it doesn’t seem likely that anything is going to change soon in that regard.
V’Landys confirmed in February that a second Brisbane team would be added to the competition in the very near future, and was bullish about the prospects of putting another outfit to catch the increasing population of South East Queensland.
Given that there is already a huge NRL team in the Brisbane area, plus another one down the road on the Gold Coast, this doesn’t seem to make much sense. Surely, over 30 years after they entered the competition, anyone who moves to the area is going to have heard of the Brisbane Broncos?
The best option, looking at the existing proposals, is that the successful bid is the one from the Ipswich Jets, who could feasibly host an NRL team that doesn’t tread on the Broncos, and could grow in tune with the population, which is slated to double from 200,000 to 400,000 in the next decade or so.
That would take the NRL to 17 teams, and open the door for an 18th to even up the numbers. At this stage, that team might be in Perth, the South Island of New Zealand, Wellington, Adelaide, the Central Coast of New South Wales, Papua New Guinea, Fiji or somewhere else in Queensland. All is contingent on the 2022 TV deal, which could potentially fund any expansion.
Who could be the 18th NRL team?
The frontrunners,
according to some in the media, would be the Central Coast Bears, or as you might remember them, the North Sydney Bears. While that would be delightful for those of us with a passion for old suburban grounds and nice retro jerseys, I’m not sure that it is the message that rugby league wants to send the world.
The Central Coast’s argument appears to be based on their prior success in producing players and the fast population growth in the region, which has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic as people leave Sydney.
The issue there would be two-fold: one, their juniors, such as Melbourne’s Nicho Hynes and Newcastle Knights’ Saifiti brothers, Daniel and Jacob, are already playing in the NRL for other teams, so the lack of a local options clearly isn’t holding anyone back; and two, literally everyone moving from Sydney has already heard of rugby league, and probably has a team that they follow. That’s not expanding, it’s just having more teams.
The real argument would be for trying to grow the game in a way that hasn’t been attempted since the 1990s. Expansion, that is to say, real expansion, costs a lot of money and takes time and effort. Someone has to be willing to lose money in the short term to gain it back in the long or very long term. Ultimately, only a governing body is likely to take that challenge on.
Deepening the NRL talent pool
As far as arguments against expansion go, they tend to line up around two positions. One is that the talent pool isn’t deep enough, the other is that it would cost too much money for too little gain.
The first is palpably nonsense: if the league expanded to 18 teams, or even 20, they could certainly source more players. I watch plenty of second grade NSW Cup and even third grade Ron Massey Cup, and when NRL players get dropped and have to play at that level, they don’t suddenly start to look like superstars: if anything, the players who truly stand out are the youngsters chomping at the bit to get a change at first grade.
In England, where there has been a multi-divisional system for decades, they regularly source players from lower leagues and give them a go to see if they’re good enough. Given that the Aussie dollar exchange rate with the British pound is now $1.60 (it was once close to $3), the best Super League talent would be far more incentivised to come over than they currently are.
You also have two teams of Melanesians, the Kaiviti Silktails and the PNG Hunters, running around in lower grades waiting for a chance to be signed to the NRL, plus potential to add pathways from Tonga, Samoa and other Pacific nations.
If anything, the problem with player development in the NRL is that there are too many players in pathways that can’t find a gig at the top level, with first grade standard players stuck in second grade waiting for an opportunity.
A secondary line of argument is that an expanded competition would lead to lop-sided results between the established powers and the new teams. Leaving aside that this year’s competition has already cleaved itself into the top five and everyone else, that is more of an issue of allocating better players around the league. Last time I checked, the salary cap is designed to do exactly that, and given a few years and proper enforcement, would.
How the NRL can invite investment via expansion
Let’s run a thought experiment in which, instead of increasing the salary cap by $2m AUD across each team, you take that cash and put it into four new central distribution pots for new clubs to offer around the league, topped up by owners’ franchise fees. If you don’t believe players wouldn’t move to new markets, let me remind you that David Fifita turned down the Broncos to go to the Gold Coast and is currently killing it.
You might not, at first, convince the top earners to move, but you’d get the fourth and fifth. The Rugby League Players Association (RLPA) might object, but realistically, the NRL has never been in a stronger position to negotiate with them given the weakness of rugby union, the traditional destination for disgruntled league players, the poor financial state of the Super League and the unlikelihood, on the back of a season with a long stoppage, that they would resort to a strike. Who knows, perhaps they might even like the idea of gaining another 100 professional rugby league players in their organization?
The financial benefits of an increased media footprint are obvious. If you add teams in Perth and New Zealand, you gain two extra time slots for valuable content, with the potential for a lucrative third match on a Sunday afternoon or evening. You gain new audiences, new media markets and the chance to market to new people that you don’t get by, as the phrase has it, fishing where the fish are.
Currently, nobody in Western Australia has any vested interest in the NRL and the ground is totally ceded to the Australian Football League (AFL) and, criminally, rugby union. In New Zealand, you have a chance to make an indent into rugby union at a time when
their national game is moving further and further away from ordinary Kiwis.
Of course, this is easy to say and harder to do. But Peter V’Landys has shown a willingness to take on big tasks before, and is in the unusual position in rugby league of having the political power to take on a big project. He even might even have the cash, if the TV deal goes well. After that, it’s all about will.
Does The NRL Want To Expand, Or Does It Just Want To Have More Teams? (forbes.com)
