I don't think the expectation of a top 8 finish is unreasonable. We won 7 /20 last year to finish 12th - if we'd scored just 10 points more we'd have jumped the Tiges into 11th and our for and against was 40+ points better than the teams in 9th and 10th ( Warriors, Titans ).
The Sharkies won 10 / 20 to finish in 8th spot.
We lost 4 games by 4 points or less and another 3 by 8 or less and 1 by 10 points - that's 8 close games that a well drilled team could have won. We also lost 2 games against the Doggies and NZ where we just capitulated totally - both games saw Mary playing silly buggers with people out of position e.g. Norman fullback, K.Sims starting prop, Aitken and Isaac Luke on the bench etc. and we made heaps of errors. I think that Doggies game was the catalyst for Graham to say later losers.
So we need to win say just over half our games at least - 14 / 24 ( plus the bye ) which would see us in 7th or 8th based on previous years. The Broncs won 11/24 + a draw to make the 8 in 2019 but 15/24 was needed in 2018.
That's doable folks. New coach, some exciting young backs, halves that can perform given some worthwhile direction and a cunning game plan ( as opposed to Maryball ). Plus half our games this year are day games in which we traditionally do well. Totally doable. And if JDB returns it's a certainty.
Realistically speaking I'd be very disappointed with anything below 10th but I'm optimistic for a Top 8 berth.
I wouldn't usually quote myself but there's some stats and info in that post that I'd like to add to.
I've been at it again, watching replays of some of our 2020 games I missed or blocked from memory. Looking for answers I guess but mostly for hope for the year ahead. I think I found some.
I mention above that we lost 7 games by 8 points or less and 1 by 10. If a couple of things had gone our way we could have won at least 4 of those and ended in 8th spot on the ladder on 22 points.
We were clearly robbed in the Cronulla game when Dufty grounded the ball in our in goal but the idiots in the bunker awarded a try to the opposition. We lost the game against the Cowboys by 1 point but embarrassingly bombed two tries we absolutely should have scored - Ravs drops one, line open and Norman passes to Aitkens knees ( mind you Clune was in support but held back ). We bombed potential match winning tries against Penrith and Raiders and led the Titans 10-4 with 6 minutes to go and threw it away. I'll remind you also that we had virtually a different line up each week with people out of position or dropped or injured.
All this happened in a year where we were diabolical in most games. Some great attack sure but the more I watch it becomes more apparent just how amateurish and woeful our defence was. Just horrific.
the commentators were either incredulous and sometimes even bagging us for our schoolboy quality defence. No line speed apart from occasional busrts from McInnes, it's like the boys were told " wait for them to come to you, don't rush up " and our kick chase must have been the worst in the league, rarely a straight line and no pressure on the receiver. Hunt and Norman ( when together ) won the kicking stats nearly every game, giving us great field position only for the opposition to roll back up the park with ease - 50, 60 even 70 metre sets were common against us.
Secondly, our attack was quite good but our execution and discipline weren't anywhere near the top teams. We bombed a stack of tries and opportunities. So many errors at crucial times. Rav, Hunt, Norman and especially Lomax just handed over the ball time after time.
If Hook can't fix our defence we're doomed but if he can as well as tidy up our attack then we have a good base to build on and a real chance of making the 8.
My concern though is our pack. We need 1 or 2 big tough, experienced props. There's none on the market unfortunately. If we miss the 8, that'll be why.
