Where to from here?

[tripster]

We are definitely going through a patch of bad form, and I don’t see any chance of it turning around until Origin is well and truly behind us. Even then it might take a while until everything clicks.

Looking at the remaining draw, and having regard to the current form of the other teams we are due to play, I think unfortunately that there is a real chance we only win 3 more games this year, and finish well outside of the top 4. Most likely case I see us winning 4 of our remaining games, which is still unlikely to enough for the top 4.

All of the teams in the top 8 with the exception of the Broncos have at least 10 wins already (Broncos have 9) so the top 4 might require 16 or even 17 wins this year.

My logic is as follows:

- rd 17: Warriors @ Penrith: without Cleary, Maloney and Peach and against a full strength Warriors team who were very unlucky to lose to the Sharks and will be looking to make amends. I think we lose this game.

- rd 18: Sharks @ Penrith: two days after Origin. We lose this game. Sharks pack will monster us with current injuries and Cleary, Maloney and Peach will be completely off their games.

- rd 19: Broncos @ Brisbane: hopefully by this point we start to turn things around. Broncos have been inconsistent and Griffin has a good record against Bennett. A better chance of winning this game than the previous two, but beating the Broncos in Brisbane is never easy. Let’s say we are 50/50 of winning this one assuming we come ready to play.

- rd 20: Manly @ Manly - we can win this one. Manly will be still be decimated by injuries (even more so than us) presumably won’t even be a mathematical possibility of making the finals and hopefully we turn up with the right attitude (although today’s game shows that is no guarantee).

- rd 21: Raiders @ Penrith - with Hodgson back steering them around Raiders are looking like a completely different (and very dangerous) side. It’ll be a very different game to when we played them in Canberra. If RCG and Mansour are back we will have a chance. Without them I see us struggling against their pack. Let’s again say this is 50/50.

- rd 22: Titans @ Gold Coast. We must be a good chance in this one.

- rd 23: Knights @ Penrith: Also a good chance of winning this one.

- rd 24: Warriors @ NZ: This is going to be tough. Warriors might be fighting for a top 4 spot. However hopefully we have RCG and Mansour back and no more injuries. Let’s alsl say this is 50/50.

- rd 25: Storm @ Melbourne. We will have to break a very long hoodoo to be able to win down there, and Storm are again looking like genuine contenders. We lose this one.

So let’s say we win against the Knights, Gold Coast and Manly. Thats hopefully the worst case - 3 wins and we finish on 13 wins.

There’s a chance we beat the Broncos and the Raiders and Warriors. Let’s say we win one of those games (but we might win 2).

That most likely takes us to 14 wins, only one better than last season and very unlikely to be enough for the top 4 with the structure of the top 8. Best case we win 15.

Of course I hope for better but unfortunately I think our top 4 chances are now looking very small.

 

[mxlegend99]

When Blake returns we will be 6 tries a game better. The 4 he scores and the 2 we don't concede through our centre/winger pairing looking like under 6s

 

[Kilkenny]

We are now no chance of finishing in the top four after today's disgraceful performance.

We have endured a horrific year with serious injuries. In particular the impact of the long term injuries to Blake, Edwards and Mansour has really exposed how weak we are in the outside backs.

Waqa Blake returns next week but he alone is unlikely to be able to turn our fortunes around.

Griffin really doesn't have too many options available to him but for me personally he needs to immediately abandon having two hookers in the 17. Wade Egan needs to go back to NSW Cup and we need a better option of the bench in his place.

 

[Whino]

My plan would be refresh the team next week by bringing in a few young guy's. There is a few in the team that need a reminder there place shouldn't be for granted. A few deserve to be dropped too.

Following week against the Sharks (who we haven't beaten 3 years) I would rest Maloney. He is looking buggard now. Backing up against the Sharks 2 days later will drain him more.
Rest him up and put his focus on the Broncos the following week.

 

[OldPanther]

We are now no chance of finishing in the top four after today's disgraceful performance.

We have endured a horrific year with serious injuries. In particular the impact of the long term injuries to Blake, Edwards and Mansour has really exposed how weak we are in the outside backs.

Waqa Blake returns next week but he alone is unlikely to be able to turn our fortunes around.

Griffin really doesn't have too many options available to him but for me personally he needs to immediately abandon having two hookers in the 17. Wade Egan needs to go back to NSW Cup and we need a better option of the bench in his place.

Katoa is getting worse. I'm guessing his first genuine year as a starting hooker is an adjustment for him physically. If you remove Egan(who has been better the last 2 weeks):

1. Katoa has to play 80 minutes which I'm not sure he could do to a high standard.

2. May has to play 20 mons at hooker and you lose his best attributes.

 

[mxlegend99]

May successfully subbed at hooker last year no worries.

 

[OldPanther]

May successfully subbed at hooker last year no worries.

I don't mind him there at all. Just wondering if he's wasted not getting to use his creativity and running game as often.

 

[martielang]

He’ll be 5/8th next week & potentially the week after, so we won’t know for a couple of weeks whether May gets the bench spot.

I’d be going 9. Katoa 14. May, but each to their own.

Not sure our back depth is that bad. It’s a pretty big ask asking our NSW Cup boys to all play 3+ months of first grade football without a break (given they played rep week). We’ve essentially had our first 3 picked backs out for extended periods at the same time. If it was just 1, we could of rotated & managed Phillips & Chrichton.

 

[Panfa]

Zelezniak chrichton whare blake phillips may luai fisher harris harawira neara yeo tamou katoa merrin ellis hetherington leota egan thats where to now for warriors

 

[Panther Mick]

Rep period silencing Panthers' NRL hopes
Penrith's prolonged period without their playmakers at training is starting to show after the NRL premiership contenders dropped consecutive games for the first time this season.

The Panthers are now fourth after they were shocked 18-10 by Manly on Saturday, in what was arguably close to their worst performance of the year.

With their representative players available, Penrith completed at just 68 per cent and scored just one try against a Manly team that has proven leaky at times this year.

But there are are underlying reasons.

NSW halves James Maloney and Nathan Cleary have barely trained with the team since they went into camp for the State of Origin series opener on May 28.

Since then, the pair weren't around the team during their round 13 bye week, played Canberra without a full session and then were given part of the week off before the Sydney Roosters game.

They then returned to the Panthers earlier this week ahead of Saturday's loss, but again had a disrupted start to preparations.

Other key playmaker Tyrone Peachey - who is now playing at centre - has also missed just as much.
It's showed too, as they scraped home against the Raiders in round 14 and have then turned in their worst two attacking games of the season in terms of points scored and completion rates in the past fortnight.

"We've just lost a bit of rhythm and momentum at the moment and we're not where we need to be," Panthers coach Anthony Griffin said.

"I think it's a combination of a lot of things. You can make a lot of excuses. Everyone is going through it.

"Manly had their issues as well. We've had a lot of good games this year but today wasn't our best."

It's for that reason Griffin can see the positives heading into Friday's clash with the Warriors, which his Origin players will miss.

Penrith are desperate to avoid going three straight losses, knowing that their previous mid-season momentum would take a serious hit with the beaten run.

"It's a really important game for us," Griffin said.

"Next week we will have a group of guys who are together all week. It will be an uninterrupted week.

"I think this will be a good thing for us even though we're missing our Origin players. We'll re-group and get better."

Meanwhile Griffin is hopeful dynamite second-rower Viliame Kikau is available, after he suffered a high cork of the knee in Saturday's loss.

Waqa Blake and Corey Harawira-Naera are also likely to return from injury, while Tyrone May and Jerome Luai are likely to deputise in the halves for Cleary and Maloney.

"Hopefully it's just a really bad cork on the top of the knee there (for Kikau)," Griffin said.

"The doctors are optimistic there is no structural damage. He's just got a really bad bump."
https://wwos.nine.com.au/2018/07/01/03/35/rep-period-silencing-panthers-nrl-hopes

 

[murraymob]

since Cleary has come back he is standing deeper on a finer angle when receiving the ball. Thats making our ball runner go a longer distance.Malony during our winning run was flat .We need to get back to this

 

[Whino]

They seemed to get things right in the Dragons game, but the two games since Origin have been ordinary.

I wouldn’t be surprised if what happened is that they were given different direction at club level (ie probably nothing too strict as to the division between them) but something much more strict for Origin (i.e we know that it was made pretty clear for Origin that Maloney was to run the team).

Perhaps whatever was told to Cleary in Origin has disrupted things at a club level - it would be hard to ‘switch styles’ with your halves partner and back again in a week.

I think you may be right.

 

[Panther Mick]

Our attack is definitely struggling with Maloney and Cleary playing a different style of attack in Origin. They then come back here train for a day or 2 or participating in captain run and play another style of attack. That would be confusing to them.

Even if our halves are confused over two differing styles of attack that is no excuse for the remaining players to slack off, drop the ball, miss tackles or look at each other while a bomb is put up.

 

[umina panther]

Our attack is definitely struggling with Maloney and Cleary playing a different style of attack in Origin. They then come back here train for a day or 2 or participating in captain run and play another style of attack. That would be confusing to them.

Even if our halves are confused over two differing styles of attack that is no excuse for the remaining players to slack off, drop the ball, miss tackles or look at each other while a bomb is put up.

That an acceptable excuse for young Cleary but not Maloney imo

 

[OldPanther]

Rep period silencing Panthers' NRL hopes
Penrith's prolonged period without their playmakers at training is starting to show after the NRL premiership contenders dropped consecutive games for the first time this season.

The Panthers are now fourth after they were shocked 18-10 by Manly on Saturday, in what was arguably close to their worst performance of the year.

With their representative players available, Penrith completed at just 68 per cent and scored just one try against a Manly team that has proven leaky at times this year.

But there are are underlying reasons.

NSW halves James Maloney and Nathan Cleary have barely trained with the team since they went into camp for the State of Origin series opener on May 28.

Since then, the pair weren't around the team during their round 13 bye week, played Canberra without a full session and then were given part of the week off before the Sydney Roosters game.

They then returned to the Panthers earlier this week ahead of Saturday's loss, but again had a disrupted start to preparations.

Other key playmaker Tyrone Peachey - who is now playing at centre - has also missed just as much.
It's showed too, as they scraped home against the Raiders in round 14 and have then turned in their worst two attacking games of the season in terms of points scored and completion rates in the past fortnight.

"We've just lost a bit of rhythm and momentum at the moment and we're not where we need to be," Panthers coach Anthony Griffin said.

"I think it's a combination of a lot of things. You can make a lot of excuses. Everyone is going through it.

"Manly had their issues as well. We've had a lot of good games this year but today wasn't our best."

It's for that reason Griffin can see the positives heading into Friday's clash with the Warriors, which his Origin players will miss.

Penrith are desperate to avoid going three straight losses, knowing that their previous mid-season momentum would take a serious hit with the beaten run.

"It's a really important game for us," Griffin said.

"Next week we will have a group of guys who are together all week. It will be an uninterrupted week.

"I think this will be a good thing for us even though we're missing our Origin players. We'll re-group and get better."

Meanwhile Griffin is hopeful dynamite second-rower Viliame Kikau is available, after he suffered a high cork of the knee in Saturday's loss.

Waqa Blake and Corey Harawira-Naera are also likely to return from injury, while Tyrone May and Jerome Luai are likely to deputise in the halves for Cleary and Maloney.

"Hopefully it's just a really bad cork on the top of the knee there (for Kikau)," Griffin said.

"The doctors are optimistic there is no structural damage. He's just got a really bad bump."
https://wwos.nine.com.au/2018/07/01/03/35/rep-period-silencing-panthers-nrl-hopes

That does make sense though Maloney should be able to handle it.

Kikau was looking bad before that knock so I'm not confident.

 

[Panther Mick]

That an acceptable excuse for young Cleary but not Maloney imo

I think Maloney is carrying a back injury and he had a problem with his hand before Origin 2.
Ideally he needs a rest.

 

[OldPanther]

I think Maloney is carrying a back injury and he had a problem with his hand before Origin 2.
Ideally he needs a rest.

He could if we had someone who could play 5/8 but I just can't think of anyone.

 

[Big Mick]

Jack Hetherington may be one of the dumbest footballers I've ever seen tbh. The amount of bad decisions this guy makes is so frustrating.

 

[tripster]

With Rabbitohs just getting home over the Cowboys, both Dragons and Rabbitohs are now on 12 wins. Their for and against is also significantly better than ours (which is worth an extra win).

Unless they both implode it seems impossible for us to finish 1st or 2nd.

So if we can still make the top 4 at all, it’ll be 3rd or 4th at best. The battle for those two spots is going to come down to the Storm, Sharks, Warriors, Penrith and Roosters and even the Broncos.

 

[martielang]

The thing is though, no team is playing great footy at the moment. Saints, Melbourne & Rabbits all should of lost as well & it’s not out of the question they could go through a similar run to us. They are all full strength at the moment too.

I agree it’s probably unlikely we’ll make top 2 but there’s still a hell of a lot water to go under the bridge in this comp imo.