I was just checking back at some records and discovered that since the NRL was founded in 1998 (the same year the Dally M became the games official award) the player who has won the Dally M medal has not gone on to win the Grand Final.
The winner of the Dally M Medal will not win the Grand Final with his club in that year.
2005- Dally M medal Winner Johnathan Thurston (Cowboys)-
Premiers Tigers
2004- Dally M medal Winner Danny Buderus (Knights)
Premiers Bulldogs
2003- Dally M medal Winner Award ceremony cancelled
2002- Dally M medal Winner Andrew Johns (Knights)
Premiers Roosters
2001- Dally M medal Winner Preston Campbell (Sharks)
Premiers Knights
2000- Dally M medal Winner Trent Barrett (Dragons)
Premiers Broncos
1999- Dally M medal Winner Andrew Johns (Knights)
Premiers Storm
1998- Dally M medal Winner Andrew Johns (Knights)
Premiers Bulldogs
I am going to go out on a limb and say that since Cameron Smith is likely to win the Dally M medal, Melbourne will not win the comp.