Round 5 V Eels

[GongPanther]

Yeah it is a tough one. I trust the powers that be with getting players ready for FG. They will send him back when he needs it. Like Flegg players starting to float into NSW Cup we do that side of it well. Getting them to make the step up from FG to rep is the issue so far

Not to mention in approx a months time some of the Penrith SG Ball and Matts players will be absorbed into the Flegg system.

 

[MrBlack]

yeah we have a really poor backup goal kicker don't we.. how many teams would be happy with one goal kicker at 80% +

Taking the 2 at just about every opportunity puts teams on notice as well, that basically any penalty within range is going to cost them points. Eventually this will stop the opposition from conceding professional penalties to buy some time to set a defense.

 

[franklin2323]

Not to mention in approx a months time some of the Penrith SG Ball and Matts players will be absorbed into the Flegg system.

That is the way we do it. Brian Too played NSW Cup last week a few more will come up as Ball players come into the side. Then a month out from finals all go back and generally smash the finals.

When Egan and Crichton go back they will carve up and be better for these few guys in the top grade. It is the way we have done it for atleast the last 5 years. By season's end we have so much depth

 

[betcats]

I was disappointed not to see Egan but I get why they didn't put him on. Egan will be our long term 9 but I still think for now that bench spot should be Katoas. Egan will still get plenty out of playing NSW cup and Katoa just offers a bit more utility.

 

[franklin2323]

I was disappointed not to see Egan but I get why they didn't put him on. Egan will be our long term 9 but I still think for now that bench spot should be Katoas. Egan will still get plenty out of playing NSW cup and Katoa just offers a bit more utility.

Katoa can play backrow too. Egan should be the 9 once Wallace goes and hopefully we get him a game or 2 starting through the year. He needs gametime until then

 

[herbert henry1908]

That is hardly our undoing. You play whats in front of you,and sometimes the opposition does turn up. The situation were Parra has found themselves made this game a very much must win for them as the intensity was evident,and they prepared well for it.

Both sides needed to be congratulated for a dour affair,albeit hardly an epic one,which would have had the neutral's attention for most of it.

Be intetesting how Parra turn up for their next game wether they'll be demoralised or if they still have that fight in them.

I think the point is, we’ll need to improve when we play better teams.

What we’ve been dishing up, aside from the cowboys game isn’t good enough to challenge them.

 

[herbert henry1908]

Personally,I think Hook will put him back on the bench as a super-sub when Tyrone May comes back from injury. May straight to 5/8 so he can work that magic he did last year.

May isn’t good enough to demand selection straight back into the team.

You also need to have your timing spot on if you’re going to be in the halves.

 

[GongPanther]

That’s crazy! I didn’t realise we hadn’t used all 8 of our interchanges! That makes what we managed to soak up yesterday all the more amazing.

Maybe something to do with

I think the point is, we’ll need to improve when we play better teams.

What we’ve been dishing up, aside from the cowboys game isn’t good enough to challenge them.

This is why we take it one week at a time. Most teams will have hiccups,and sure we are not yet fine tuned. That come I'm sure.

 

[herbert henry1908]

This team is good enough to win the premiership this year.

The paradigm has shifted, 5 games is enough to see that not everything will be the same.

It’s time for everyone to re-evaluate their expectations for this year.

 

[herbert henry1908]

This is why we take it one week at a time. Most teams will have hiccups,and sure we are not yet fine tuned. That come I'm sure.

We need less hiccups than good games though. So far that hasn’t happened.

This premiership is there for the taking this year, really wide open race.

 

[franklin2323]

Ahh yes comps are won in April... Call it off now the top 8 is set

 

[herbert henry1908]

Historical data shows the top 8 is largely set after 8 or so rounds actually.

It’s moslty just positions within the 8 that change after that point.

Data is your friend.

 

[betcats]

This team is good enough to win the premiership this year.

The paradigm has shifted, 5 games is enough to see that not everything will be the same.

It’s time for everyone to re-evaluate their expectations for this year.

I agree, if we can come with that defensive effort and execution consistently we are a threat for sure, we just need to make some improvements offensively which hopefully will come with Maloney there. I'd be very happy with a top four finish and a solid finals run but with some luck a premiership is certainly there to be taken.

 

[herbert henry1908]

Let’s go to the data

After 5 rounds,

2008 - 5 of the top 8 made the finals
2009 - 6
2010 - 6
2011 - 7
2012 - 5
2013 - 6
2014 - 4 (the lowest)
2015 - 6
2016 - 6
2017 - 6

Average of 5.7

People that laugh at “April premiers” stuff also don’t understand patterns, and how data can be used to understand what’s going on right now.

5 games is just over 20% of the season, for data analysis 20% is a heap to go on, and history shows it.

 

[herbert henry1908]

Here’s another interesting stat.

Only two teams in the last 10 years have won the premiership from outside the 8 after five rounds.

 

[franklin2323]

Round 10 last year Dragons were 2nd... They missed the 8.

1st aim is to get to the finals. We need to win 8 more games for that

2nd aim is to come top 4. Probably 12 more wins for that

Then hope we are good injury wise to make a dent. Blake hasn't finished a finals series for us yet. The Round 1 spine hasn't been on the park come finals time.

After we get 12 wins I will start looking ahead to possible GF day

 

[franklin2323]

I agree, if we can come with that defensive effort and execution consistently we are a threat for sure, we just need to make some improvements offensively which hopefully will come with Maloney there. I'd be very happy with a top four finish and a solid finals run but with some luck a premiership is certainly there to be taken.

We only conceded 13 v Broncs in the finals. I think if we had Blake for that game. Edwards/Wallace not being busted we win.

The great sign is winning without key players. The 5th best defence and attack are good signs that said

 

[herbert henry1908]

Of course there are exceptions, you clearly don’t understand how trends work.

I never said the top 8 is 100% set.

Nuance.

 

[herbert henry1908]

Round 10 last year Dragons were 2nd... They missed the 8.

And just like always you can’t even get your claims right.

The dragons weren’t even in the top 4 after ten rounds last year.

 

[franklin2323]

Of course there are exceptions, you clearly don’t understand how trends work.

I never said the top 8 is 100% set.

Nuance.

You use trends too much. Trends get broken all the time

Just these last 2 weeks:
Storm lost 2 in a row.
We hadn't won since 2009 in Townsville
Warriors never won 5 to start the season

Meanwhile we have injured:

Blake, DWZ, Cleary, May, McKendry, Browne
Depth players: Jed, Sivo,

So trends have no say over us getting in or not. It's keeping healthy