NRL's growth mindset points to 18th team. And it ain't Perth.

[Jamberoo]

With the AFL numbers, if you so much as look at a sharon you are counted as a participant. This has been proven time and time again. They send development officers to primary schools for a few sessions and count every kid in the school as a "participant" in the offical numbers. They got spanked in Sydney trying to pull this grift years back when pushing for more ovals.

I've got no idea what the numbers for touch are in Vic. Can't imagine they are huge tbh. But quoting the AFL's participant numbers in NSW/QLD is useless in any comparison as they are full of shit.

I was actually referring to actual players in competitions - both junior and senior not Auskick or Touch.
Teams are disappearing, particularly in Sydney, and overall player numbers are declining in both NSW & Qld.. You can blame COVID, but AFL numbers are increasing in both states. Female AFL playing numbers are ahead of RL in both states. These females become mums and the next generation of potential RL stars will be kicking a Sherrin instead of a Steeden.
This is the real worry for RL.
Luckily, right now, 98% of the best athletes in Sydney go for a career in RL. But, if the participation trends continue, there could be a critical point in 15 - 20 years when a significant number start choosing AFL.
And I don't reckon getting rid of Sydney teams is going to help turn this around. It could be catastrophic for the game.
And, unlike in the Terminator movies, you won't be able to go back in time and change things.

 

[The Great Dane]

I was actually referring to actual players in competitions - both junior and senior not Auskick or Touch.
Teams are disappearing, particularly in Sydney, and overall player numbers are declining in both NSW & Qld.. You can blame COVID, but AFL numbers are increasing in both states. Female AFL playing numbers are ahead of RL in both states. These females become mums and the next generation of potential RL stars will be kicking a Sherrin instead of a Steeden.
This is the real worry for RL.

It's got nothing to with covid.

Anybody that's had anything to do with junior sport in the last 20-30 years can tell you what the problem is; RL (and Union, boxing, etc, for that matter) has the image of being a very dangerous sport and an ever increasing amount of Mothers simply won't allow their kids to play it because of that.

Though I can't say this for sure in the case of Australia, but if I had to guess I'd say that CTE being better understood, and well publicised, will have compounded that issue as well. That's definitely been the case in America where they've seen a dramatic drop in participation, particularly in Pee Wee Football, as a direct response to CTE.

For whatever reason Aussie Rules, Soccer, Basketball, and competitive martial arts have been able to largely dodge that perception of being seen as too dangerous for kids despite the fact that most studies showed that kids are basically just as likely to be injured playing them as they are RL or RU, but once RL and RU have become culturally unacceptable for kids to play the next most violent sports will be hit by the same attitudes.

 

[flippikat]

The AFL in their great wisdom seeing the Swans were very close to falling over because of lack of support because of an extended period of poor results, sent Tony Lockett to the Swans to pull them out of the shit.

It didn't have anything to do with RL.

Ahh.. that takes me back to the early 90s. Here on NZ TV we used to see Aussie show "The Comedy Company", and I remember a few jokes about the Swans being rubbish.

One of the few references that was very much lost in translation, but it intrigued me enough to look the team up & find out a little about that game - basically hitting the encyclopedias.

In a perverse way, the Swans being so rubbish actually raised the profile of the game for me!

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

So what have we gained

After the initial loss of old time fans, we would gain a new generation of fans from a wider community. A team that represents 800,000 people from Southern Sydney and Illawarra will appeal more to sponsors than one that is limited to just 300k. Crowds will grow, like they did for SGI and WT. The increased revenue from gate receipts and merchandise make the club mire resilient and sustainable should a major crisis hit our game.

 

[taipan]

Wests and Balmain combined avg in their last 5 years as stand alones was around the 17k mark (and that was with two sets of away fans attending remember)
West Tigers avg last 4 years around 15.5k

St George-Illaraw draw bigger crowds now in Illawarra than the Steelers did
As I said the losses arent great. If we bring in clubs that can generate more fans than those lost we get a net gain.

RL has struggled in NS (if it has, I have yet to see any quantitative data to measure it) as there was npo plan when they were cut and the NRL didnt want to upset bears anymore than they had by handing their region to Manly or roosters. Some investment in that region from another club may have seen that struggle diminished.

re Swans there crowds where on the rise before SL.
1994 10k
1995 16k
1996 24k
Did they have a successful on the field run during this period? Sure Sl helped no doubt but it cant be the only factor or they wouldnt have sustained them long term.

I've no doubt AFL would have loved one of the struggling Melbourne clubs to move to the GC, likewise I am sure they would be fully supportive of one of them moving to Tassie. They've shown in the past that they support relocations and will give every assistance to rationalise Melbourne.
AFL 2021: AFL relocation, Tasmania AFL team, North Melbourne Kangaroos, 19th team, Caroline Wilson report, news (foxsports.com.au)

So we are are going off a sample group of 2 Bears fans you know? Grow up. More people attend NRl games in Sydney now and more people watch NRL on TV after than before the mergers and cuts. Go figure.

I can see where the game needs to go as I am not incumbered by a fear of losing my club, unlike you. Everyone has known Sydney needs rationalising to create space for a truly national Comp since the late 80's. Its a shame it was the Titans and Knights that NRL had to take over, if it had been Cronulla and Manly (for example) I'm sure they would have moved them if they could.

If you bothered to check I stated they had hardly increased .The numbers at Jubilee compared to the halcyon years are well down.
It's ironic, because you have openly admitted continually, that removing the Reds had the DETRIMENTAL EFFECT OF DECIMATING THE JUNIOR NUMBERS IN THAT STATE.And the FORCE made up the difference with crowds coming over to them.Thanks for supporting my argument.
People go to other sports.

Have you bothered to accept the fact the Sydney's population has increased markedly since the joint ventures.West Tigers now include Campbelltown.
2000 Sydney metro 4,085,000
2020 Sydney metro 4,926,000

You go on about next generations, well it isn't showing in junior numbers compared to earlier days.People who get involved as fans deeply ,have better chances of having their kids play.

What the : Swans 10k in 1994.(after 12 years).You can't be serious.
When did SL start rumbling ?1995,they Swans jumped 60%
1996 when all the SL court cases were on they shot up a further 50%.
The Swan's CEO stated the SL gave them a big lift, can't be more explicit.
The war cleared out our Bank account.
Once again thanks for proving my point.

And I have no doubt the ARL would have wanted the Sharks to go to Perth or elsewhere.
They are here and have no debt, own one completed club(the main one) and one about to be refurbished.All sponsorship has been sold for jumper.Centre of Excellence money has been allocated by State govt.
It's again one of you usual hypotheticals, because as it's turned out the AFL is now content with the current situation .
Yeah Caroline Wilson LOL reporting, what may or may not happen in the futureis like computer models on global warming.
Oh and St George on its own at Jubilee
biggest crowd of season 1975 23,582
1979. 21,756
1978. 21,559
2009 whoa against Cronulla next door 20,847
Yep joint ventures are matching that LOL.




You really don't get it, I cited a separate couple of Bears' fans as examples, and clearly spelt out,.It's a small sample from people I met via work.As are the comments from former Dragons and Tiger's fans.
The Bears fans in toto don't appear to have gone to Manly or the Tigers.Manly crowds are meh.
Anyone can sit at a desk thousands of kms away

"Grow up" LOL coming from a whining armchair general, you need to familiarise yourself with Sydney a bit, you probably wouldn't have a clue where Pratten Park was, nor witnessed 20K at NSO Bears v Manly.Bears juniors bigger now?

"You can see where the game needs to go"We all have a fair idea. I'd place more credence with respect on the people at the coal face, the people that provide the financing for various aspects of the code.
We all like the game to grow that's hardly a scoop.It;s just that most of us respect other clubs who have been around a long time, and Eva little respect for trash and burners.

And the reason the Tv ratings are what they are ,is because the ratings are boosted by Sydney clubs ,and Qld.On your clueless formula you believe further cutting is going to help ratings/.

We can only get big TV numbers in Vic for rl with SOO.Tv revenue is our biggest revenue source ATM unfortunately.News and the NRL poured large amounts into the Storm, which I agree with because of the 2nd biggest city and the SOO interesting because News was prepared to back them, and it worked out.Although not so for NRL TV ratings yet ,when AFL starts.
Well Sharks got themselves out of financial rut, because they(A Sydney club) owned their ground, and club and have drawn decent TV ratings particularly on Fox and as the 2016 G/F showed they have a decent base ,as the vast majority of fans against Melbourne were Sharks,FACT.
Titans and I have been there twice, have a great stadium's big catchment ,but their crowds have been ordinary to date ,apart from the early years.
I still get back to the fact and you cantle handle it, you guys would still be around if you hadn't; gone to SL and SL hadn't got off the ground.You shot yourself in the foot.
Have to report the AFL have dithered on Tasmania for ages, they fluffed NZ,their Nthn TV ratings are ordinary, it's not music to your ears it appears.

 

[taipan]

Rusted on fans wouldn't jump on board, but kids born in Southern Sydney after the Sharks and Dragons are gone probably will. Souths have enough fans to remain viable during the 20 years it will take to develop new fans.

Well they didn't when North Sydney went see ya later, and the crowds at Jubilee and juniors now are not like the old days.
And when Perh Reds went,their juniors dipped dramatically and fans went to the Force.Not my comments but PRs.
Sharks have an identity with the Shire. a combo Such as the Southern Rabbotohs has little or no identity with that area.
Plus there are a lot more pursuits young ones do now ,such a surfing, basketball.
If they had started a team Southern Sydney involving Dragons and Sharks back in 1967, it would have been some sort of goer, not now.
IMO we have had enough axing and joint ventures for a city our size.If a club cannot sustain itself with no junior,no financing, and poor crowds ,then I would accept .

 

[Perth Red]

Well they didn't when North Sydney went see ya later, and the crowds at Jubilee and juniors now are not like the old days.
And when Perh Reds went,their juniors dipped dramatically and fans went to the Force.Not my comments but PRs.
Sharks have an identity with the Shire. a combo Such as the Southern Rabbotohs has little or no identity with that area.
Plus there are a lot more pursuits young ones do now ,such a surfing, basketball.
If they had started a team Southern Sydney involving Dragons and Sharks back in 1967, it would have been some sort of goer, not now.
IMO we have had enough axing and joint ventures for a city our size.If a club cannot sustain itself with no junior,no financing, and poor crowds ,then I would accept .

Bit disingenuous using the Reds as an example. If I'm a kid in NS and want to play RL there is probably 100 Jr clubs within a 25km radius of my house and the NS Bears right on my doorstep. If I want to support NRL there are 4 or 5 clubs within easy travel I could go to games to watch. All my mates are following RL at school. RL is in every media outlet massively. I'm literally bombarded from all angles with RL. If NRL cant hold Sydney with 6-7 clubs against AFL with 2 and Union with 1 then the game really is weaker there than I thought
When Reds were cut we were left with pretty much nothing. if I'm a gun 15 year old WA Rugby (sic) player do I join the Pirates academy then SG Ball side in the hope I might get seen on the east coast, have to move to a NSW cup team in Sydney at 18 and hope I can get a NRL gig, or do I stay at home and follow a career pathway in Union in my own back yard with my local club. Pretty easy choice for kids. Forced pumped millions in to Jnr union when formed and Twiggy forest is pumping another $60mill into Jnr Union, NRLWA gets less than $1mill a year to combat that!

If I'm a kid in NS I'm still in a city where RL reigns, I have ample opportunity to play the game at aschool and after school, if I'm good enough i have multiple opportunities to have a crack at being pro, as a fan I have a number of NRl clubs I can choose to support and become a member of. None of that is diminished by not having the Bears.

The biggest failure of NS was not getting rid of the Bears but the NRL/NSWRL not handing the region over to the Roosters to make their own in 2003. Bears could have been to Roosters what Mounties is to Bulldogs or what Blacktown is to Manly. Do kids in Blacktown not play RL because they dont have a Mountiesw NRL team? No of course not. The notion every sydney suburb has to have an NRl team for the game to thrive is nonsense.

 

[Perth Red]

IMO we have had enough axing and joint ventures for a city our size.If a club cannot sustain itself with no junior,no financing, and poor crowds ,then I would accept .

I actually agree! But the NRl needs to have the koohunas to accept this and not use the weakness of clubs to stop expansion and growth of the game, or to worry about player depth. Bring in the 4 clubs we need to create the comp we should have and if Sydney clubs cant compete then they will drop to a level more suited to them.

Of course sounds good in theory but the Tv contract stipulates X games a round so NRL cant just let them fall over. Not to mention the existing Sydney clubs and NSWRL wielding power on the commission to vote against it. Hence the catch 22 we are stuck in.

 

[LeagueXIII]

After the initial loss of old time fans, we would gain a new generation of fans from a wider community. A team that represents 800,000 people from Southern Sydney and Illawarra will appeal more to sponsors than one that is limited to just 300k. Crowds will grow, like they did for SGI and WT. The increased revenue from gate receipts and merchandise make the club mire resilient and sustainable should a major crisis hit our game.

What would you anticipate crowds to grow to?

 

[LeagueXIII]

In 1994 Sydney hosted 116 First Grade league home and away games in 2019 it hosted 75.

How low do we want it to go?

 

[The Great Dane]

In 1994 Sydney hosted 116 First Grade league home and away games in 2019 it hosted 75.

How low do we want it to go?

Supply and demand.

Scarcity of a product in demand increases it's value.

Besides how many Sydney clubs were sustainable, let alone made a profit, in 1994? Maybe 1 or 2 were sustainable if we are being generous. What was the average attendance in Sydney in 1994? Was it even 10k, I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't, and it definitely wasn't over 15k.
Things are significantly better now than they were in 1994, and in Sydney's case there being less teams is a big part of that.

Back in those days the clubs were like crabs in a bucket, going back to a situation like that would be a massive regression.

 

[Perth Red]

1994 The crowd avg for balmain was 7.8k, Wests 6.8k. Sydney avg around 12k. Three clubs achieved 15k.

Fast forward to 2019 and Five clubs avg 15k or more, Sydney avg around 15k. West tigers 15.9k.

add in reducing Sydney has meant space for melbourne drawing 18.2k and the potential of GC and it’s hard to say first phase rationalising of Sydney hasnt strengthened the nrl as a whole.
And all that with the nrl and clubs basically do sweet fa to actually grow crowds!

 

[Vee]

Mentioned on the news last night Titans Broncos is close to a sell-out.

Not sure I believe it.

 

[colly]

1994 The crowd avg for balmain was 7.8k, Wests 6.8k. Sydney avg around 12k. Three clubs achieved 15k.

Fast forward to 2019 and Five clubs avg 15k or more, Sydney avg around 15k. West tigers 15.9k.

add in reducing Sydney has meant space for melbourne drawing 18.2k and the potential of GC and it’s hard to say first phase rationalising of Sydney hasnt strengthened the nrl as a whole.
And all that with the nrl and clubs basically do sweet fa to actually grow crowds!

And yet this is what they take to the Headquarters of the media giants, and they lap it up. From Sunday 6.30 on Ch Ten replay on prime time in the 90's , to Chanel 7 having the "Big League' until the late 80's. The big media pay, and when you take away teams it becomes less desirable. Sure grow teams crowds as best as you can, by making the experience good, but it is what it is.

 

[taipan]

Bit disingenuous using the Reds as an example. If I'm a kid in NS and want to play RL there is probably 100 Jr clubs within a 25km radius of my house and the NS Bears right on my doorstep. If I want to support NRL there are 4 or 5 clubs within easy travel I could go to games to watch. All my mates are following RL at school. RL is in every media outlet massively. I'm literally bombarded from all angles with RL. If NRL cant hold Sydney with 6-7 clubs against AFL with 2 and Union with 1 then the game really is weaker there than I thought
When Reds were cut we were left with pretty much nothing. if I'm a gun 15 year old WA Rugby (sic) player do I join the Pirates academy then SG Ball side in the hope I might get seen on the east coast, have to move to a NSW cup team in Sydney at 18 and hope I can get a NRL gig, or do I stay at home and follow a career pathway in Union in my own back yard with my local club. Pretty easy choice for kids. Forced pumped millions in to Jnr union when formed and Twiggy forest is pumping another $60mill into Jnr Union, NRLWA gets less than $1mill a year to combat that!

If I'm a kid in NS I'm still in a city where RL reigns, I have ample opportunity to play the game at aschool and after school, if I'm good enough i have multiple opportunities to have a crack at being pro, as a fan I have a number of NRl clubs I can choose to support and become a member of. None of that is diminished by not having the Bears.

The biggest failure of NS was not getting rid of the Bears but the NRL/NSWRL not handing the region over to the Roosters to make their own in 2003. Bears could have been to Roosters what Mounties is to Bulldogs or what Blacktown is to Manly. Do kids in Blacktown not play RL because they dont have a Mountiesw NRL team? No of course not. The notion every sydney suburb has to have an NRl team for the game to thrive is nonsense.

No. Perth Reds is a classic example, of losing a team, the effect on juniors and interstate's within an area.
When Souths were flicked for that period ,the interest from their supporters was disgust and no interest in rugby league.
People in North Sydney.North Shore have an affinity for that area, there is zero affinity with Manly ,as the joint venture attempt with the Bears showed.And they sure as hell are not racing over to the Tigers or Easts.

My view if they had a Bears team that used NSO and the CC,and called them the Northern Bears)meaning no joint venture, but retaining the Bears tribe and thus the affinity with the Northern Suburbs,it would have been a goer.Now we have a huge region population wise with zilch.

You still don't understand the term tribalism pertaining to rugby league in Sydney.It started in terms of suburbs/districts and people relate to that.I continues today.

And dare I bring in your fave AFL,tribalism exists in Melbourne more so.

The joint venture Dragons/Illawarra has been in vogue for 21 years ,IOW a generation.Where are the huge numbers of young guns that go to games ,compared to when they did 30-40 years ago.

The other consideration which you continue to ignore, rugby league is a split from union.As a consequence despite the fact rugby league dominates union in NSW and Qld,the opportunity for support is also split.Be it by GPS /Associated Schools being union (and rl can't get a look in but AFL can).
A classic example I was brought up on union ,because I attended an Associated school, and prior spent 1 year at a rl playing school.
Thus the dominance of rl hasn't been anywhere near the dominance AFL has in their heartland states.They have TBH bugger all competition from other codes, since their inception.

Therefore I repeat as nauseam, any further rationalisation(unless a club is unable to continue)in Sydney is fraught with danger.
1) Because it creates a vacuum ala Nth Sydney.
2) It creates opportunity for the fumblers, who have enjoyed that opportunity in the past.
3) it alienates rusted on fans and as shown, next generations.
4)It weakens your biggest base, that is already involved with other competing codes, one with plenty of dosh.
5)We have TV stations who are struggling to survive, having a market where team numbers are less in their major ratings areas not going to boost revenue.Especially if a new non heartland areas cannot get large numbers of eyeballs.Melbourne Storm was fortunate they won a G/F in 1999.If they were hopeless year on year,I would worry.
6)You also reduce the opportunity for locals who aim to get into an NRL side in Sydney, with lesser teams.

NB I still want a national competition involving the Jets/Firehawks/or whatevers plus the Perth side.

As an aside
I don't think I get enough credit for the fact,I do all of this commentary unmedicated. Hic!!!

 

[Jim Rockford]

When Souths were flicked for that period ,the interest from their supporters was disgust and no interest in rugby league.

Absolutely! I went from someone who watched every game each round,every week to someone who watched no League at all. I started watching other sports but now Souths are back I'm back to watching every game each round. I know I'm definitely not alone amongst Souths supporters who did the same.

 

[taipan]

Absolutely! I went from someone who watched every game each round,every week to someone who watched no League at all. I started watching other sports but now Souths are back I'm back to watching every game each round. I know I'm definitely not alone amongst Souths supporters who did the same.

But apparently because I could only cite two Nth Sydney fans and their views after losing the Bears,I needed to "grow up" .Because two fans' views, is all there was, and all the others apparently roared their approval of losing their team.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Everyone on here has a point. Reducing the number of Sydney teams will cause thousands of their diehard fans to abandon the game in protest, or at least reduce their interest in it.

Sydney is oversaturated, at least in regard to sustainability. Without the yearly grant teams would struggle to survive. Every dollar spent by the ARLC propping up NRL clubs means less can be spent developing the game at the grassroots level. Over time this will lead to junior and senior clubs dying, which many have.

I'm in favour of relocating smaller teams like Manly, St George and Wests so that their brand lives on. Keeping the brand alive will lead to fewer diehard supporters being lost to the game.

Sydney teams are stronger in 2021 than they were in 1994.

 

[LeagueXIII]

Supply and demand.

Scarcity of a product in demand increases it's value.

Besides how many Sydney clubs were sustainable, let alone made a profit, in 1994? Maybe 1 or 2 were sustainable if we are being generous. What was the average attendance in Sydney in 1994? Was it even 10k, I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't, and it definitely wasn't over 15k.
Things are significantly better now than they were in 1994, and in Sydney's case there being less teams is a big part of that.

Back in those days the clubs were like crabs in a bucket, going back to a situation like that would be a massive regression.

By creating less you are giving people the option to find other things to do with their time.

 

[Perth Red]

But apparently because I could only cite two Nth Sydney fans and their views after losing the Bears,I needed to "grow up" .Because two fans' views, is all there was, and all the others apparently roared their approval of losing their team.

Great we have a sample group of three. Well if you add me in I didn’t give up on RL when we lost our club so our current data is showing 75% leave, 25% stay lol

in reality if someone had done a study of going into NS schools and asking kids what sport they play and which team they follow then we would be able to talk from some sense of validity, but as I am not aware of any such study we can argue till the cows come home about how big the loss of removing a club is and if the replacement club actually adds more whilst the removal of another mouth to feed adds to better sustainability for the the re inning clubs in the immediate region.

and again no club is going to be removed, rightly or wrongly for the future health of the nrl.