NRL's growth mindset points to 18th team. And it ain't Perth.

[Perth Red]

Back on topic. Now we know NRL is looking at 2028 for club 18 admission does it change the current thinking? Is it far enough out that a Brisbane3 can be brought in? Or far enough out that Perth could be started sooner to build the development systems? Or that the Warriors could get their shit together in time for a NZ2 club to seem more viable?

New clubs but with some risk and needing support
Perth
NZ2

Safer options but in existing markets
Firehawks
Jets
NSW Bears

Somewhere in between
The (anywhere) Bears

High risk and highly unlikely
PNG

 

[flippikat]

Back on topic. Now we know NRL is looking at 2028 for club 18 admission does it change the current thinking? Is it far enough out that a Brisbane3 can be brought in? Or far enough out that Perth could be started sooner to build the development systems? Or that the Warriors could get their shit together in time for a NZ2 club to seem more viable?

New clubs but with some risk and needing support
Perth
NZ2

Safer options but in existing markets
Firehawks
Jets
NSW Bears

Somewhere in between
The (anywhere) Bears

High risk and highly unlikely
PNG

My fear is that the NRL leave it a long time before they start thinking about team 18, maybe to "wait and see" how the Dolphins go - with half an eye towards maybe adding another South-East Qld team if that market allows.

This would be terrible, and risk any 18th team just not having enough lead-in time.

17 teams isn't a stable long-term state for the competition, so the NRL needs to make a decision soon whether another Queensland team should be eligible for this round of bidding or not, then just call for bids.

The sooner they call for team 18 bids, the longer they can give the bids time to prepare & present a business case, and the longer they can have to assess the business cases... and still give team 18 a decent time to prepare for entry once chosen.

 

[Colk]

My fear is that the NRL leave it a long time before they start thinking about team 18, maybe to "wait and see" how the Dolphins go - with half an eye towards maybe adding another South-East Qld team if that market allows.

This would be terrible, and risk any 18th team just not having enough lead-in time.

17 teams isn't a stable long-term state for the competition, so the NRL needs to make a decision soon whether another Queensland team should be eligible for this round of bidding or not, then just call for bids.

The sooner they call for team 18 bids, the longer they can give the bids time to prepare & present a business case, and the longer they can have to assess the business cases... and still give team 18 a decent time to prepare for entry once chosen.

That sounds way too sensible for Rugby League

 

[siv]

Lets remember we are recovering from a pandemic

So caution is still the main approach

 

[Colk]

Lets remember we are recovering from a pandemic

So caution is still the main approach

Let me guess you are going to say that means we should look at CC

 

[Perth Red]

It’s inevitable we will go to 18 teams and nrl has already said in 2028. Agree, decide soon where and let the new club start building itself.

 

[flippikat]

Lets remember we are recovering from a pandemic

So caution is still the main approach

I see your point, but caution may be a curse when..

A) Covid is becoming more and more a "live with it & move on" thing - in much of the public perception anyway.

B) The NRL has already said they want 18 teams in 2018. The clock is ticking.

and crucially C) it's becoming crystal clear that a new team needs more time than the Dolphins got to assemble a squad. (They have about 17 months from the green light to their first game).

If they don't start the process soon, it could easily be a rushed, last-minute "oh gees.. we need another club, fast" decision that does the game & the chosen bid no favors at all.

The Warriors were awarded a spot in the premiership in May 1992 - nearly 3 years before their debut - and they built a squad that only missed the playoffs in their debut season due to a substitution rule breach costing a 2 competition point penalty.

The Titans had nearly 2 years to assemble their first squad, and finished 13th in their debut season.

 

[siv]

I see your point, but caution may be a curse when..

A) Covid is becoming more and more a "live with it & move on" thing - in much of the public perception anyway.

B) The NRL has already said they want 18 teams in 2018. The clock is ticking.

and crucially C) it's becoming crystal clear that a new team needs more time than the Dolphins got to assemble a squad. (They have about 17 months from the green light to their first game).

If they don't start the process soon, it could easily be a rushed, last-minute "oh gees.. we need another club, fast" decision that does the game & the chosen bid no favors at all.

The Warriors were awarded a spot in the premiership in May 1992 - nearly 3 years before their debut - and they built a squad that only missed the playoffs in their debut season due to a substitution rule breach costing a 2 competition point penalty.

The Titans had nearly 2 years to assemble their first squad, and finished 13th in their debut season.

The difference between this expansion and orior expansions

We had a strong NRL RG and U21 to draw on

And also there is a looming financial post covid crisis. I said the effects of covid would last from 5 to 10 years. Plus we see countries usining the situation to their benefit eg Russia/Ukraine & China/Taiwan/Solomons Is

 

[siv]

Let me guess you are going to say that means we should look at CC

Low risk option

Your learning

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Back on topic. Now we know NRL is looking at 2028 for club 18 admission does it change the current thinking? Is it far enough out that a Brisbane3 can be brought in? Or far enough out that Perth could be started sooner to build the development systems? Or that the Warriors could get their shit together in time for a NZ2 club to seem more viable?

New clubs but with some risk and needing support
Perth
NZ2

Safer options but in existing markets
Firehawks
Jets
NSW Bears

Somewhere in between
The (anywhere) Bears

High risk and highly unlikely
PNG

Easts Tigers will be NRL ready by then. They're currently upgrading their facilities at Langlands Park to support an NRL club.

God knows what the WA Gov does with Perth Oval between now and then. If we're lucky they'll rebuild the western and northern stand before 2028.

NZ should be in a strong w oufh position to field a second team by 2028.

Bears will still be trying to get back in and each year the Sydney media will run their annual story on the return of the Bears. By then they'll plan on playing 9 games out of Singapore and 3 at NSO.

A lot will depend on the media landscape. By 2028 there could be a new technology that changes the way we watch TV.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

The difference between this expansion and orior expansions

We had a strong NRL RG and U21 to draw on

And also there is a looming financial post covid crisis. I said the effects of covid would last from 5 to 10 years. Plus we see countries usining the situation to their benefit eg Russia/Ukraine & China/Taiwan/Solomons Is

Cowboys took a decade to come good. Their 1995 squad was woeful and they finished the season with just two wins. Their main recruits were Martin Bella and a Welsh RL/RU player called Gareth Jenkins. Their halfback Laurie Spina came out of retirement.

Crushers were a basket case. One of their main signings was an RU player called Garrick Morgan. He turned out to be a dud. They also tried to snare Jason Little from RU. They picked up a few reserve grade players from the Broncos, plus Mark Hohn, Trevor Gillmeister and Mario Fenech.

Reds went alright on the field but never were a contender.

Warriors struggled until 2001.

 

[Colk]

Low risk option

Your learning

Low reward as well

 

[The Great Dane]

Low reward as well

I think classing the CC as 'low risk' is extremely debatable.

Considering, among other things, the low amount of local sponsorship and corporate dollars on offer, small and reasonably low density population, and lack of a local backer with solid financials and business acumen, I highly doubt they'd be able to support a club independently.

Unless things went really tits up they'd probably be able to scrape by with the grant, but they'd definingly be one of the, if not the, weakest and most unstable clubs in the league.
I mean the Mariners are the only local pro-team, and they can't even really support them. So what hope do they have of supporting an NRL side if they struggle to support a significantly less expensive A-league side with no other competition?

If the Bears were involved, A. it'd put even more pressure on the already oversaturated Sydney market, which wouldn't be ideal. B. You'd quickly see them use financial pressure on the CC as a reason to push most of their operations into Sydney, at which point the CC connection would be token at best and kind of defeat the purpose of introducing them in the first place.

A CC NRL side is a pipedream at this point, and if it was going to happen it should have happened 30+ years ago. Even then the club almost certainly would have folded before 2000.

At this point the CC's future should lie in the second tier, but the second tier is so poorly structured and run that there's no real future there.

 

[MugaB]

Cowboys took a decade to come good. Their 1995 squad was woeful and they finished the season with just two wins. Their main recruits were Martin Bella and a Welsh RL/RU player called Gareth Jenkins. Their halfback Laurie Spina came out of retirement.

Crushers were a basket case. One of their main signings was an RU player called Garrick Morgan. He turned out to be a dud. They also tried to snare Jason Little from RU. They picked up a few reserve grade players from the Broncos, plus Mark Hohn, Trevor Gillmeister and Mario Fenech.

Reds went alright on the field but never were a contender.

Warriors struggled until 2001.

By all these metrics on past expansions of '95, the dolphins having the current roster theyve already assembled have already beaten these 4 teams in acquiring talent and done it in less time... the roster to me looks like it can land between 7-10 on the ladder by seasons end, warriors and storm are the only 2 teams who went well in their inagural seasons, not many expansion clubs do, some clubs mentioned earlier, like the cows took 10 years..
Anyone crying outrage about the lack of lead time is kidding themselves, it was never going to happen and was alway a carrot dangled out to the 3 bids to who can deliver on the Arlc's timeframe....

 

[Colk]

I think classing the CC as 'low risk' is extremely debatable.

Considering, among other things, the low amount of local sponsorship and corporate dollars on offer, small and reasonably low density population, and lack of a local backer with solid financials and business acumen, I highly doubt they'd be able to support a club independently.

Unless things went really tits up they'd probably be able to scrape by with the grant, but they'd definingly be one of the, if not the, weakest and most unstable clubs in the league.
I mean the Mariners are the only local pro-team, and they can't even really support them. So what hope do they have of supporting an NRL side if they struggle to support a significantly less expensive A-league side with no other competition?

If the Bears were involved, A. it'd put even more pressure on the already oversaturated Sydney market, which wouldn't be ideal. B. You'd quickly see them use financial pressure on the CC as a reason to push most of their operations into Sydney, at which point the CC connection would be token at best and kind of defeat the purpose of introducing them in the first place.

A CC NRL side is a pipedream at this point, and if it was going to happen it should have happened 30+ years ago. Even then the club almost certainly would have folded before 2000.

At this point the CC's future should lie in the second tier, but the second tier is so poorly structured and run that there's no real future there.

I agree with you hence why I said it is a low reward option. Your post should be directed at Siv who is the person advocating for such an option.

 

[Perth Red]

By all these metrics on past expansions of '95, the dolphins having the current roster theyve already assembled have already beaten these 4 teams in acquiring talent and done it in less time... the roster to me looks like it can land between 7-10 on the ladder by seasons end, warriors and storm are the only 2 teams who went well in their inagural seasons, not many expansion clubs do, some clubs mentioned earlier, like the cows took 10 years..
Anyone crying outrage about the lack of lead time is kidding themselves, it was never going to happen and was alway a carrot dangled out to the 3 bids to who can deliver on the Arlc's timeframe....

well there was 4 clubs fighting for players at same time. Reds did alright with their first year squad and had a number of good jnrs they brought over that would have given us a decent squad if not culled.

we won 11/24 games first season. Titans 10/24. Be interesting to see if dolphins can do better.

ARL 1995 - Western Reds - RLP

List of all match results from the 1995 ARL.

www.rugbyleagueproject.org

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Newcastle Knights would be impacted the most by a team on the Central Coast. @T-Boon has the right idea about Newcastle expanding their footprint to include the Central Coast.

 

[Colk]

Newcastle Knights would be impacted the most by a team on the Central Coast. @T-Boon has the right idea about Newcastle expanding their footprint to include the Central Coast.

I just think that with an area like the Central Coast due to its proximity to both Newcastle and Sydney people already follow their NRL sides. Maybe Knights can target parts of south Central Coast like Tuggerah or Wyong for example but from Gosford onwards you would want a Sydney side to target that area like say Manly/Roosters.

CC as an area would only be populous enough to sustain a team in say 20 -30 odd years. You’d also want much more corporates in the area, a better stadium and even then after all that you would need less Sydney teams in the competition (let’s say there were only 4 or 5 Sydney teams then it might be an option if the the first few conditions were met)

In any case a couple of games a year at Gosford is fair with a couple of teams targeting that junior area

 

[T-Boon]

I just think that with an area like the Central Coast due to its proximity to both Newcastle and Sydney people already follow their NRL sides. Maybe Knights can target parts of south Central Coast like Tuggerah or Wyong for example but from Gosford onwards you would want a Sydney side to target that area like say Manly/Roosters.

I reckon Gosford to Manly must take about a day by car and 2 days by train.
The knights should own Gosford 15 years from now - its just a matter of how they go about it.

 

[Colk]

I reckon Gosford to Manly must take about a day by car and 2 days by train.
The knights should own Gosford 15 years from now - its just a matter of how they go about it.

Haha it doesn’t take a day by car. It’s about an hour or so