Do you want Brad Arthur as coach

[the phantom menace]

If we were so good why did we get belted the following week? If the Cowboys were so shit why did they outperform us over 24 rounds? You need to realise which data samples are most likely to reveal relative strengths and weaknesses of a team. 24 games tells you a lot more than one game.

I realise what data can tell us... if we try hard enough to turn every conversation into one dismissive of actual observations, in favour of generalising across a larger sample size.

However I also realise when people are having a discussion about one particular game that did take place, and that their observations about that game and particular outcome can validly stand as they are - without recourse to menaingless data generalisations that often end up tangential to topic.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

But that's a truism, meaningless or moot point... Surely in the context of the discssion, the fact that our win over the Cowboys in the PF was the outcome that took place should receive higher weighting than dismissal as being just one of the set of all possible outcomes?

Not when comparing the two teams that played. Because it's just one game. Are we better than Penrith because we beat them twice each during the season? Are we worse than them because we lost twice in the finals? Or are we worse because they outperformed us over the entire season? I think the latter. I even think we could've beaten them in the grand final. If we had it wouldn't mean we were a better team, just better on the day.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I realise what data can tell us... if we try hard enough to turn every conversation into one dismissive of actual observations, in favour of generalising across a larger sample size.

However I also realise when people are having a discussion about one particular game that did take place, and that their observations about that game and particular outcome can validly stand as they are - without recourse to menaingless data generalisations that often end up tangential to topic.

But it's not tangential. Discussion of this game came about because someone asked which team should've been in the grand final instead of us. I think the Cowboys and probably the Roosters and Storm as well would've given Penrith a better run for their money. Because they are better, and would've gone better than us in any given hypothetical game, such as one that featured some team other than Parramatta.

As per the original question of who should've been in the decider instead. If you're going to go off on tangents don't throw rocks from your glass house.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Only Pou could downplay one of the most courageous wins Parra have produced in the 21st century.

Yes, you are right to suggest it was an amazing performance. Rare even. If we did that every time we played better teams we wouldn’t hold it up as such an example.

 

[Gary Gutful]

I realise what data can tell us... if we try hard enough to turn every conversation into one dismissive of actual observations, in favour of generalising across a larger sample size.

However I also realise when people are having a discussion about one particular game that did take place, and that their observations about that game and particular outcome can validly stand as they are - without recourse to menaingless data generalisations that often end up tangential to topic.

That’s just a dumb statement given the conversation was never about that one game to begin with. Use your noggin.

 

[hineyrulz]

 

[Gary Gutful]

^^^

…and you shut up as well little dog!

 

[emjaycee]

 

[hineyrulz]

^^^

…and you shut up as well little dog!

 

[Cloeel]

Only Pou could downplay one of the most courageous wins Parra have produced in the 21st century.

I have the Cowboys victory above the Dragons 2009 ambush at Kogarah in my lifetime as the toughest and most brave performance I have seen Parra produce.

Especially that last 10 mins in defence and the fact they had to come from behind by more then a converted a try with 20 to go.

Throw in the hostile North QLD crowd and a GF appearance at stake the performance should go down in parramatta folklore even with the dissapointing GF performance.

It is because @Poupou Escobar bases his arguments around facts and not feelings.

He isn't necessarily down playing the win. He is just providing probable reasoning based on factual evidence; which does not play into your narrative.

Feelings are great. But facts are far more accurate than "what you saw" or how you interpreted a certain situation.

 

[strider]

Fact is, it was f**kin awesome!

#factualemotions

 

[Poupou Escobar]

It is because @Poupou Escobar bases his arguments around facts and not feelings.

He isn't necessarily down playing the win. He is just providing probable reasoning based on factual evidence; which does not play into your narrative.

Feelings are great. But facts are far more accurate than "what you saw" or how you interpreted a certain situation.

Yep, and for the record I loved that win. That’s how I felt about it. But afterwards I analysed it and looked at the facts. That doesn’t change how I feel about it, just how I think about it.

 

[the phantom menace]

Not when comparing the two teams that played. Because it's just one game. Are we better than Penrith because we beat them twice each during the season? Are we worse than them because we lost twice in the finals? Or are we worse because they outperformed us over the entire season? I think the latter. I even think we could've beaten them in the grand final. If we had it wouldn't mean we were a better team, just better on the day.

Three hypothetcial questions - each avoiding the comparision of the actual result when the two teams played, which was what was being discussed - amid accusations that you were diminishing the amazing effort that resulted in the win over the Cowboys in that one game.

I think it's a circular path, to get to your final five words, which seem to be in agreement to that which you seemed to be desperate to argue against.

 

[hindy111]

Yep, and for the record I loved that win. That’s how I felt about it. But afterwards I analysed it and looked at the facts. That doesn’t change how I feel about it, just how I think about it.

Do you sleep ok? I feel like you think a lot.

 

[the phantom menace]

But it's not tangential. Discussion of this game came about because someone asked which team should've been in the grand final instead of us. I think the Cowboys and probably the Roosters and Storm as well would've given Penrith a better run for their money. Because they are better, and would've gone better than us in any given hypothetical game, such as one that featured some team other than Parramatta.

As per the original question of who should've been in the decider instead. If you're going to go off on tangents don't throw rocks from your glass house.

But you're not discussing "this game" by you're own admission... Fair points that some teams which averaged better points differential may have (on average probability) given the Panthers a closer call in the following game... but relying on such data alone ignores what was in play at that particular point of the season - form and context in the game/s which decided who made the grand final.

Purely based on the one game that mattered, I agree with others that no-one else should have / earned the right to be in the grand final instead of us, regardless of how they may have performed over the preceding 25+ rounds. But you are entitled to your differing opinion, about a hypothetical game which no-one can really make any reliable inference because... sport isn't just stats.

 

[the phantom menace]

That’s just a dumb statement given the conversation was never about that one game to begin with. Use your noggin.

 

[the phantom menace]

 

[Gary Gutful]

Fair points that some teams which averaged better points differential may have (on average probability) given the Panthers a closer call in the following game

Exactly. Why the need to argue such an obviously defendable statement?

Anyway, I think I am tired and might retire to my bed that smells of farts.

 

[Gary Gutful]

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Three hypothetcial questions - each avoiding the comparision of the actual result when the two teams played, which was what was being discussed - amid accusations that you were diminishing the amazing effort that resulted in the win over the Cowboys in that one game.

I think it's a circular path, to get to your final five words, which seem to be in agreement to that which you seemed to be desperate to argue against.

Well it can be a great win without being a great performance. That’s why we’re in agreement. I’ll take all the luck we can get. Pity it ran out the following week.