Broncos v Knights Preview
NRL.com
Suncorp Stadium
Friday 7.35pm
http://nrl.com/News/Latest/tabid/10244/default.aspx?id=52708
ITS black and white for the Newcastle Knights when they travel over the border to the Queensland capital to take on the Broncos: win and the finals beckon, lose and a nervous wait begins.
Currently holding onto eighth spot by differential alone the Knights can be usurped by the Warriors and possibly even the Eels if they go down to the fifth-placed Broncos.
As such there is no doubt Knights coach Brian Smith will be treating this match like a final, just as he did last week as his side caused a boilover by toppling the Storm to stay alive.
Should they lose to the Broncos, Smith is in the unenviable position of hoping his former team beats the Warriors, but not by a huge margin, to stay alive.
The Broncos also have plenty to play for.
They are fully aware a win could see them leapfrog the Roosters into the top four, a position that brings with it a home semi-final (contingent on the Dragons getting up over the Roosters at the same time in Sydney).
Should the Broncos lose and the Dragons win theyll surrender fifth spot and fall back to sixth, a dangerous place to be in the McIntyre finals system.
Michael Ennis returns at hooker, displacing PJ Marsh, in the only change for the home side that defeated the Bulldogs, while the Knights line-up has been given some tweaking and may still change depending on the judiciary.
Marvin Karawana is currently out with Danny Wicks and Richard Faaoso coming onto a five-man bench; however hooker Matt Hilder is facing a contrary conduct charge for allegedly spitting on Melbournes Anthony Quinn.
If he is ruled out Smith will need to reshuffle his line-up but dont expect confirmation on replacements until the last possible second of the one-hour-before-kick-off deadline.
Watch out Broncos: The cross-field kicks are coming.
The Knights are aware that only Melbourne are inferior to the Broncos at defusing cross-field kicks and they have a 64 per cent chance of a result every time they hoist the ball up and across.
With the chance to a) get a try or b) get a repeat set of six the odds have to be played if other avenues of attack fail. Denan Kemp, Joel Moon, Darius Boyd and Justin Hodges are going to be peppered.
Watch out Knights: Considering the Knights have conceded a whopping 36 penalties more than the Broncos this season it is imperative they stay on the good side of referee Tony Archer.
Thankfully for the Knights Archer has had plenty of big match experience and is unlikely to blow the pea out of the whistle (although he did infamously do as much in Origin II at this very venue).
It will be a very fine line for the Knights who need to dominate the ruck in order to slow the Broncos attack but who cant afford to be back-pedalling due to a shriek of the whistle.
Where it will be won: Good old-fashioned defence.
The Knights were truly committed to the defensive cause in their upset of Melbourne and it will be this type of determination that will decide the winner here. Both sides have been similar in defence this season, with the Knights leaking just 12 more points over the year thus far.
They are also similar in the fact the middle of the field has been their weakest and that they both have one sideline that is much more vulnerable than the other.
For the Knights they have had problems defending on the left (opposition attacking to the right corner) while for the Broncos its the opposite.
They have issues when the opposition goes left.
Whichever side galvanises as a unit and is prepared to throw every inch of their being into the entire 80 minutes without thoughts of self preservation will win.
The History: Played 31; Broncos 22, Knights 9. The Broncos have won six of the past seven matches between the two sides, including a 34-22 victory earlier this season.
The last time Newcastle travelled to Suncorp Stadium they were smashed 71-6.
Conclusion: The Knights will be absolutely desperate, perhaps a tad more so than the home side, so they are a very good chance of pulling off the win.
Brian Smith has always loved the siege mentality of going to Brisbane and in fact hes said winning at a packed house in the Queensland capital is one of the most satisfying parts of being a long-term coach.
The mid-week Matt Hilder circus is certainly distracting for the Knights, but Smith has lifted the troops before when things seemed grim.
Probably the biggest question mark hovering over the Knights is whether they have any petrol left in the tank after last weeks heroic effort and whether or not there are any mental scars from their last trip north that ended in a 65-point hiding.
The Broncos will start favourites but dont write off the Knights.
Match officials: Referee Tony Archer; Sideline Officials Alan Shortall & Tony De Las Heras; Video ref Tim Mander.
Televised: Channel Nine Live 7.30pm (Qld), delayed 9.30pm (NSW); Fox Sports 2 Delayed 1.00am.
* Statistics: NRL Stats.
