Dragons V Cowboys Preview
Big League
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IT might only be round five but both teams are viewing this clash as a must-win game considering their poor starts to the year.
Both with a 1-3 record, the Dragons and Cowboys know another loss will give the field a buffer and force them into chasing the pack over the next few months.
North Queensland finally came out of their slumber to dismantle Parramatta last weekend and coach Graham Murray has stuck with the same side, adding Matthew Bartlett as an 18th man for the trip to Wollongong.
The Dragons threw away two competition points against Cronulla last weekend, letting the Sharks equalise in the dying moments and then giving up a penalty in extra time to go down in tragic circumstances.
The home side welcomes back Ben Creagh and Dean Young to the side, which moves Beau Scott to the bench and Chase Stanley from lock to wing.
The players to miss out as a result are winger Josh Morris and hooker Ben Ellis. Stuart Webb will start at dummy half for this match. Jon Green is some hope of playing after being added to an extended bench.
Watch out Dragons!: Although they are yet to score a try from a kick the Cowboys are aware the Red V have conceded five tries to the boot.
With Chase Stanley returning to the wing after time in the back row the Cowboys will no doubt target the teenager.
The Dragons are currently only successfully diffusing 60 per cent of cross-field bombs and 62 per cent of grubbers so expect Johnathan Thurston to bring his A short-kicking game.
Watch out Cowboys!: Mark Gasnier is coming. The Cowboys have conceded 12 tries on the right side compared to just four on the left and with Gasnier hunting down the right side it could be a long night for the visitors if the Test centre is given good quality ball.
The Dragons are particularly lethal between 11-20 metres out, where they have scored nine tries, the most in the NRL from this distance.
Where it will be won: On the ground. With both teams having problems breaking the line on a regular basis the importance of ruck speed and field position is paramount.
The Dragons are averaging 1,296 running metres gained a match (5th in NRL) compared to the Cowboys 1,151metres (15th) and if they can continue dominance in this regard theyll be in position to score some points.
Adding to this is their kick metres They average 719 metres a game (1st in NRL) while the Cowboys are last in the competition in this stat, gaining just 337 metres from the boot each match.
While the Cowboys have the bonus of having Thurston, a player who almost always turns field position into points, the Dragons attacking unit boasts the likes of Gasnier and Matt Cooper.
The more opportunities in good field position they get, the more likely they are to take advantage.
The History: Played 16; Dragons 8, Cowboys 8. The Cowboys won both matches between the sides last season, one of which was at this venue; and they have also won five of the last eight overall.
Despite last seasons loss WIN Stadium still boasts a 4-2 record from the six matches in favour of the Dragons.
Conclusion: The form of the Dragons has been average at best this season but playing at WIN Stadium helps them in their quest to get back on track.
The Cowboys have many significant weaknesses in defence and as such are always beatable; however their attack is lethal when it gets going.
Penalties could prove crucial here; referee Tony De Las Heras was highlighted by Warriors mentor Ivan Cleary as one to blow penalties early last weekend.
The Dragons are the second most disciplined side this season (although Jason Ryles penalty last week should have counted for 10) while the Cowboys are equal 12th.
Theyll need to be on their best behaviour. This is two erratic teams coming together meaning tipping it is a lottery. Who knows which versions of the clubs will turn up?
Match officials: Referee Tony De Las Heras; Sideline Officials Steve Chiddy & Daniel Eastwood; Video ref Graeme West.
Televised: FoxSports 1 Live 5.30pm
* Statistics: NRL Stats.
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