///--- The Top 4 ---///
The Cowboys - The Dynamic Duo of Thurston and Bowen, Some of the best recruitment of 2007 bringing Travis Burns, Ben Harris and John Williams to the far north. A formidable home ground advantage and excellent forward depth given the number of player blooded last year.The only downside is Murray being sacked before the season has even started. If Thurston plays the majority of the year they are my pick for the minor premiership.
EPIC FAIL - Murray's sacking turned out to be an unrecoverable blow, but even that wouldn't have lead me to believe they would finish 15th and record their longest ever losing streak.
Melbourne Storm - The reigning premiers, Smith, Cronk, Slater, Inglis, Falou, Bellamy - The Storm have the personel to go back to back. Will be interesting to see how they cope while Bellamy is on Origin duty. Have lost a few players but their production line will likely spit out more than adequet replacements. Add the best home ground advantage in the league and a well drilled workman like pack and they are top 4 near certanties.
Correct - As above.
Brisbane Broncos - Some astute purchases sees a far more balanced Broncos team take the field in '08. The club now has far greater creative attacking options with the introduction of Wallace and Marsh. Terrific pack depth with Clinton, Hannatt (bolter for Origin duty), Thaiday, Carroll, Eastwood, Stagg, Sims, Parker, Taylor, Kenny, Ennis and PJ Marsh all on the books. Hodges is the number 1 centre in the game and Hunt is always dangerous chiming in from the back, and is rock solid in his kick returns. The club will want to send Bennett out on a high note.
CLOSE - They finished 5th by a single point. Depth was extended more than I imagined during Origin with Wallace, Marsh and Boyd all getting called up. Could
Parramatta - Probably the best starting 3/4 line in the comp. Add to that a solid pack with the right mix of workman and explosiveness and they should be dangerous. While Smith and Finch are a solid halves combination that should take the team into the top 4, they probably lack that extra class to take them to the Grand Final. Eliminated in Week 2 or 3 of the finals.
WRONG - The Hagan effect was in full affect this season. I was way off about the pack, but I stand by what I said about the 3/4 line. Losing Smith was huge blow, but Mateo made a believer out of me this year.
///--- 5th - 8th ---///
Manly - Solid defensivly, but the loss of Monaghan and Burns will hurt them with regards to halves depth. Will finish in the middle of the top 8.
Close. They are not as good as in 2007 IMO, but they covered for the lose of Monaghan far better than I imaged they would.
South Sydney - Good coach, great front office. A fanstatic defensive team that will worry the opposition when they are on the attack with the addition of Wing and Issac Luke being the first choice hooker. Kidwell (likely) playing more games will be a huge plus. Will improve on there '07 results by a place or two.
FAIL - The early season turmoil in the front office probably didn't help things, along with the loss of Wing in game 1. Their attitude in defence was poor this year. Once PHaC was dropped and Lang recruited things began to pick up and it was a good effort to be clear of the spoon with a month to go. Sandow was the shinning light of the Rabbitohs season.
The Warriors - A fearsome pack, good home ground advantage and talented coach should see them make the 8. Looking forward to seeing the debut of Sonny Fai and Packer. Will need to unearth or purchase a game breaking half to be true premiership contenders. McKinnon out for the season is a real shame.
Correct - On all accounts.
Canberra Raiders - A talented young side with a highly rated tactician for a coach and the best home ground advantage in the comp outside of Melbourne. They have the most under-rated pack in the comp with some great depth. All they need is someone to step up and partner Carney in the halves (Herbert?, Campese?) and a bit more flair in the hooking role (perhaps the signing of Flannagan from Wests Tigers as was rumoured?). Important year for the Raider with over half their top 25 squad off contract. If they get their rectruitment and retainment right their is no reason they can't be legitiment contenders in a season or two's time.
Correct - A good year for the Raiders considering the number of injuries they recieved to personal playing in key positions and the whole Todd Carney affair. Add to that Henrey announcing a move to North QLD and the team could have dropped their bundle, but to their credit they surged home.
///--- 9th - 12th ---///
Gold Coast Titans - A really good starting side that will go close but just come up short due to a lack of depth. A very important year for the Gold Coast with a large portion of the playing roster off contract. The correct recruitment and retention could see them emerge as a powerhouse club over the next few seasons.
Close (finished 13th)- Injuries and a lack of depth crueled their season yet again, but the club will be a power house within the next 5 years.
Cronulla Sharks - A great pack but ordinary halves and backs. Another year of close but no cigar for the Sharks. Noddy needs to go if they are to have a hope.
WRONG - but I stand by what I predicted. The Sharks are no hope with Noddy and his magic inside ball are at the club. Will bow out in their 2nd finals game.
Sydney City Roosters - Fittler is untested over a season long campaign, and O'Mealy (burnt out) and Mason(good in a winning side but hit him hard early and he goes missing) are over-rated. Have lost alot of depth in the halves losing Wing, Soward and Lewis. Will have a more consistant season but fall short.
WRONG - The biggest suprise improvers this year IMO. Mason is still over-rated however.
St. George-Illawarra Dragons - Will improve on '07, but the doubt over the coach for '09 will be a worry. The last couple of years has seen some poor player retention. The fact that the Saints' finances are slowly diving into the red shows that there are issues with the front office. Close but not close enough.
Close - They finished 7th due to a very favourable draw that saw them play Melbourne, Brisbane and the Gold Coast without their Origin stars.
///--- The Bottom Four ---///
Newcastle - Will have a more consistant season than '08 and should be safe from the spoon. If a team above falters they may finish higher. The very definition of a rebuilding year, but Smith should be given the bennifit of the doubt.
WRONG - were far more competitive than I predicted. Brian Smith will be able to extend his career by a decade due to the Knights '08 performance, moving from club to club ever 2-3 years as the man to bring in when a rebuild is required.
The Bulldogs - Lacks pack depth and impact (excluding Sonny-Bill), flair in the halves and speed in the backs. The coaching situation is unclear and the board has just had a big shake up. Will take some scalps if the opposition come unprepared, but are in desperate need of a new game plan.
Correct - No SBW, no Bulldogs success in '08. Recruited well for '09.
Wests Tigers - A poor undersized pack, injury prone halves in Marshall and Head (Morris doesn't count) and no home ground advantage to speak of (5 home ground in '08!) equal an ugly '08 for the Tigers. Recruitment is consistantly poor and their management has still somehow put them $250,000 over the salary cap. The one shinning light is Robbie Farrah, who will likely be unavaiable for 3 games mid year due to Origin duty. Post Canberra Tim Sheens has a win ratio of about 40% and only taken a team to the finals once, Spoon contenders if Penrith don't beat them to it.
Close - they finished 10th, but only by 1 win. Everything written above was correct however. Marshall and Head had inconsistant years, Morris still isn't a halfback, poor recruitment and cap management and Sheens still has a poor post Canberra record. Farrah didn't play Origin, though I'd expect it to be between him and Ennis in '09.
Penrith Panthers - The most over rated coach in the competition and not an established halve to speak of. Lazy ill-disiplined fowards, and although they have a solid back line will their halves be able to service them with quality ball? Another lean year for the Panthers despite the signing of Petro. My pick for the Spoon.
Close - They finished 12th. Elliot is no longer the most overrated coach in the competition because no one rates him anymore, still a lack of established halves although Luke Lewis is a handy stop gap.
I finished with:
4 picks correct (Melbourne, NZ, Canberra and the Bulldogs)
6 close predictions (Brisbane and the Gold Coast 1 place out from their predictions, the Panthers, Dragons and Tigers 1 game off where I predicted).
6 predictions way off, the Cowboys being the most dramatically wrong.
I'm giving myself 10/16.
