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Not necessarily. Plenty of clubs spend the cap and don't make the finals.I'd agree with that. So if roster is fringe top 8. We are using TPA's and no cap space... Then surely we haven't managed the cap properly
Difference between top 8 and top 4 can be 2 wins. Players playing to potential (i.e. not coming back from injuries, etc) can nab 2 wins easily.
Yes, we've started poorly and are unfit but that may change as the season goes on. Last year we were super-fit early but burned out by end of season.