2023-2028 next tv deal discussion

[The_Wookie]

I never said it was for Marvel only, Telstra run the NRL club sites too. I suspect that is similar but there is tech work done at Marvel that wouldn't be under the Fox banner.

So there is a Telstra only part of the deal somewhere

probably, but id strongly expect that to be included in the 600m cash the article talks about.

Historically Telstra have paid about 50m per year - that would take it to 350m over 7 years assuming no increase.

 

[Iamback]

probably, but id strongly expect that to be included in the 600m cash the article talks about.

Historically Telstra have paid about 50m per year - that would take it to 350m over 7 years assuming no increase.

$350m sounds right, The Marvel work would be contra in most cases.

$550m was the TV figure originally used
$170m Ch7
Leaves $380m from fox

Leaves $43m contra including the Marvel update. Isn't contra usually around 10%?

 

[The_Wookie]

$350m sounds right, The Marvel work would be contra in most cases.

$550m was the TV figure originally used
$170m Ch7
Leaves $380m from fox

Leaves $43m contra including the Marvel update. Isn't contra usually around 10%?

about 5%, but it varies.

 

[Colk]

$350m sounds right, The Marvel work would be contra in most cases.

$550m was the TV figure originally used
$170m Ch7
Leaves $380m from fox

Leaves $43m contra including the Marvel update. Isn't contra usually around 10%?

So now that you think you have worked it all out, you can now make an honest appraisal. Are the fumbleball rights worth what $100m million more to Fox? Is that a fair comparison?

If not, then V’Landys was completely snookered by fumbleball and Pay

 

[Steel Saints]

PVL got played. He was gullible. Just imagine at Nine. They would say to PVL, "big broadcast money are a thing of the past. We need to tighten up our belts. We struggle to save a dollar". Two years later, Nine reportedly offered $500 million per annum for five years to aerial ping pong.

Or over at Fox, "yeah with Covid, times are tough. It may take five to six years to come out on the other side. So for that reason, why not extent our contract with us for another five years. The NRL will have financial stability in these troubled times".

Hook, line and sinker.

 

[Iamback]

PVL got played. He was gullible. Just imagine at Nine. They would say to PVL, "big broadcast money are a thing of the past. We need to tighten up our belt. We struggle to save a dollar". Two years later, Nine reportedly offered $500 million per annum for five years to aerial ping pong.

Or over at Fox, "yeah with Covid, times are tough. It may take five to six years to come out on the other side. So for that reason, why not extent our contract with us for another five years. The NRL will have financial stability in these troubled times".

Hook, line and sinker.

There should always be some advantage to AFL on the rights due to a few factors

The thing for me is the next 2 years both are close,

We don't yet know how far the diference is for 2025-2027, So I can't say NRL were undersold until we know the difference

Key for me to close the gap is finding a home for NRLW in the calendar to add more content. Given that there is same as 93 NRL games difference on time played alone between the 2.

More content is the key

 

[Perth Red]

I never said it was for Marvel only, Telstra run the NRL club sites too. I suspect that is similar but there is tech work done at Marvel that wouldn't be under the Fox banner.

So there is a Telstra only part of the deal somewhere

Nope, nrl run it’s own websites in regards to managing and keeping advertising from those sites. In afl telstra keep that revenue and that is what they are paying the afl cash for, alongside the replays etc.

telstra pays nrl for naming rights and same replay rights as afl. No figures given on the new deal signed last week that runs until 2027. Last deal was mentioned in various reports as being worth $15-20mill.

 

[Perth Red]

There should always be some advantage to AFL on the rights due to a few factors

The thing for me is the next 2 years both are close,

We don't yet know how far the diference is for 2025-2027, So I can't say NRL were undersold until we know the difference

Key for me to close the gap is finding a home for NRLW in the calendar to add more content. Given that there is same as 93 NRL games difference on time played alone between the 2.

More content is the key

Again look at the media revenue gap in the deals over the last 15 years. The biggest ever gap is $83mill and that was when we had gallop running the game and news ltd owning it. This gap is more than DOUBLE that gap! We’ve gone from $31mill gap a year last deal to over $200million this deal. That’s just batsht crazy!!

and no the gap the next 2 years isn’t close! It’s $402 v $423 + radio rights. $33mill plus a year is not close!! It’s the price of 2 new clubs or doubling of grass roots funding!

 

[Colk]

There should always be some advantage to AFL on the rights due to a few factors

The thing for me is the next 2 years both are close,

We don't yet know how far the diference is for 2025-2027, So I can't say NRL were undersold until we know the difference

Key for me to close the gap is finding a home for NRLW in the calendar to add more content. Given that there is same as 93 NRL games difference on time played alone between the 2.

More content is the key

This is the point though. You never made these arguments pre fumbleball deal. You are just making excuses for his poor dealings.

 

[Perth Red]

Let’s just double check because I still can’t believe people are trying to defend him and the commission here!

vlandys extends a deal at the height of the pandemic with exisitng partners without putting the rights out to competitive tender or using a specialist negotiating service for $2billion for 5 years that doesn’t recoup any tv loses, doesn’t pay any extra cash for expansion and has no cash increase from fta.
Alongside this he closes down a key part of the digital Dept, picks an expansion club that news ltd directs him to, includes radio rights in the low ball fta deal And gets rid of the international rep weekend for fta who actually get lower audiences for origin on a weds than on a Sunday!

afl sign an extension deal at height of pandemic that gives them 2 years of increased funding that recovers all the tv revenue lost due to covid, then post the worse of covid out of the way puts the rights out to competitive tender and gets $4.5billion over 7 years.

and somehow some people are still trying to defend our deal and Vlandys? staggering!

2023 $402 x $473
2024 $402 v $473
2025 $402 v $643
2026 $402 v $643
2027 $402 v $643

$2bill v $2.8bill

$800mil difference over 5 years.

and people think he did ok? FFS!

 

[Wb1234]

I don't know who wrote it but given you run an industry website

Have you ever known a deal to have no contra?

The AFL statement mentions Telstra so put them in to and it is zero contra, which given the schedule changes seems very unlikely.

It doesn't lessen the deal they got but there is no way it is all cash

It’s such a shame his website is just happy to accept these figures at face value

literally foxsports and kayo would be lucky to be making 150 million pa off the afl but somehow we are lead to believe they are paying 450 plus plus on it

there is no way foxtel are wearing a loss of 250 million plus pa (advertising included) on the aflx. Over seven years that’s a loss of almost 1.5 billion

way back we had a poster his name was doc something he was great at analysing this for us

now it’s just all smoke and mirrors and other than the ratings figures we have no idea what the truth is

 

[The_Wookie]

literally foxsports and kayo would be lucky to be making 150 million pa off the afl but somehow we are lead to believe they are paying 450 plus plus on it

I doubt you have any idea what they are making off any deal they've done.

there is no way foxtel are wearing a loss of 250 million plus pa (advertising included) on the aflx. Over seven years that’s a loss of almost 1.5 billion

way back we had a poster his name was doc something he was great at analysing this for us

now it’s just all smoke and mirrors and other than the ratings figures we have no idea what the truth is

If there was any substantiated information to base an argument on I would, but there isnt and rather than invent figures that suit what i want them to say I figure Ill wait for the annual report information to support it - fortunately we'll actually get that from the AFL.

This entire thread is full of people who have been arguing that the AFL cant possibly be getting what they say they are since before the deal was announced, and entirely based on "feelings" and generally poorly executed maths.

 

[Iamback]

It’s such a shame his website is just happy to accept these figures at face value

literally foxsports and kayo would be lucky to be making 150 million pa off the afl but somehow we are lead to believe they are paying 450 plus plus on it

there is no way foxtel are wearing a loss of 250 million plus pa (advertising included) on the aflx. Over seven years that’s a loss of almost 1.5 billion

way back we had a poster his name was doc something he was great at analysing this for us

now it’s just all smoke and mirrors and other than the ratings figures we have no idea what the truth is

Yeah Doc was a good poster. I wonder what happened to him

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Correct

All we know is the deal was $643m cash and contra

It involved Fox, 7 and Telstra

We know ch7 is around $170m from the ASX

Too be fair no one knows the Fox split in the NRL deal either, atleast not until it starts and the revenue split is done.

So too soon to compare the 2 without knowing that. Even more too soon to be declaring $600m in cash from Fox and 7, especially with the sloppy work to leave out the 3rd partner

AwFuL​

TOTAL	$643pa
Ch7	$170pa
FOXTEL	?

NRL​

Total	$402pa
Ch9	$115pa
FOXTEL	?

Big difference no matter how it is spun. I don't give a f**k how much is contra and whether part of it is from Telstra. We got dudded.

 

[Iamback]

AwFuL	Total $643pa Ch7 $170pa Foxtel
NRL	Total $402pa Ch9 $115pa

Big difference no matter how it is spun. I don't give a f**k how much is contra and whether part of it is from Telstra. We got dudded.

Telstra doesn't broadcast TV. So you lose your argument there

Does the $402m count the $20m Fox paid for the Dolphins?

 

[Perth Red]

Telstra doesn't broadcast TV. So you lose your argument there

Does the $402m count the $20m Fox paid for the Dolphins?

Yes it does re expansion, we arent getting $402mill plus $20mill not announced in the deal lol

telstra do broadcast sport, just not live sport.

if you really want to compare like for like, and we don’t actually have the figures yet so pretty impossible to be 100% accurate, then best guess would be what I’ve already told you

afl $643 - 50 + 10 = $603mill a year
Nrl $402

difference of $201 mill a year.

in all likelihood contra will be $40-50mill afl, $30-35mill nrl.

so
$550-560mill cash afl
$372-377mill cash nrl

those are the best guesses based on historical data and announcements so far. And guess what, we got well and truly screwed!

we await what ever Vlandys has “up his sleeves” to get us out of this monumental cock up lol

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Telstra doesn't broadcast TV. So you lose your argument there

Does the $402m count the $20m Fox paid for the Dolphins?

Television is no longer restricted to FTA and Cable/Satellite. It is broadcast over the internet as well these days and this medium is the preferred model going forward. EPL is broadcast in Australia exclusively via internet streaming.

News Ltd killed NRL's digital arm because it was competing with Foxtel's biased platform. Just accept that our game is beholden to News Ltd and has a chairman giving them favourable deals.

 

[Iamback]

Television is no longer restricted to FTA and Cable/Satellite. It is broadcast over the internet as well these days and this medium is the preferred model going forward. EPL is broadcast in Australia exclusively via internet streaming.

News Ltd killed NRL's digital arm because it was competing with Foxtel's biased platform. Just accept that our game is beholden to News Ltd and has a chairman giving them favourable deals.

You do realise Telstra have the same agreement with NRL to run the websites as AFL does? Just is classed as something else

Ch9 in NRL counts radio too. Yet MMM, SEN are left out of that money

So that is why you can't make such comparison without the full details

 

[mongoose]

Again look at the media revenue gap in the deals over the last 15 years. The biggest ever gap is $83mill and that was when we had gallop running the game and news ltd owning it. This gap is more than DOUBLE that gap! We’ve gone from $31mill gap a year last deal to over $200million this deal. That’s just batsht crazy!!

and no the gap the next 2 years isn’t close! It’s $402 v $423 + radio rights. $33mill plus a year is not close!! It’s the price of 2 new clubs or doubling of grass roots funding!

whats the gap as a percentage though? im guessing it was bigger under Gallop

 

[Colk]

AwFuL​

TOTAL	$643pa
Ch7	$170pa
FOXTEL	?

NRL​

Total	$402pa
Ch9	$115pa
FOXTEL	?

Big difference no matter how it is spun. I don't give a f**k how much is contra and whether part of it is from Telstra. We got dudded.

We got dudded from both Nine and Fox. Fox is particularly disgraceful considering our ratings vs theirs.

The only that anybody got in any way argue that fumbleball didn’t get a great deal would be if it were $200 million in contra or something ridiculous like that and what’s the likelihood of that?