2023-2028 next tv deal discussion

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

If nrl went to paramount or stan it would be different than soccer or union in that a huge number of subscribers would follow overnight (500k to 1 million)

I personally like Fox coverage and have none. If Stan got all the rights I will be devastated

Fox do provide great coverage, but they won't allow Fetch to stream Kayo. If Stan get the NRL rights then it will allow Fetch customers to access the game. There's a lot of Fetch customers now that Telstra owns 51% of company end is using the platform to replace their Roku-based Telstra TV.

 

[Wb1234]

Fox do provide great coverage, but they won't allow Fetch to stream Kayo. If Stan get the NRL rights then it will allow Fetch customers to access the game. There's a lot of Fetch customers now that Telstra owns 51% of company end is using the platform to replace their Roku-based Telstra TV.

Sbw doing commentary

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

I’m not sure why, with fox owning a fta channel they could in theory, with no competition, offer a package deal that delivered no fta pay increase for nrl With a take it or leave it ultimatum for the whole thing. With no one else challenging for streaming/ptv rights what would the nrl do?

why do you think fox owning ch10 would lead to more money for the nrl?

Ch9/STAN would put in a rival bid.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Sbw doing commentary

Peter Psaltis, Phil Gould, Paul Gallen and Cameron Smith are good commentators.

 

[docbrown]

Rupert Murdoch wanted to buy 10 network for years, failed on his first attempt.

Pipped at the line by Paramount+ .

If his Son is successful this time around it is great news for the NRL next broadcasts rights deal.

That is your competitive tension in the next round of negotiations.

If Lachlan buys Network 10 then you can almost Guarantee a large deal for the NRL.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/media/network-10-is-in-total-turmoil-and-may-not-survive-as-australias-third-commercial-broadcaster/news-story/8834f836947d5f4ca478c9b88db9e47f

It's also why it's News Corp media death riding the current 10 board.

For Lachlan to get his way media ownership laws will have to be tweaked. But if 10 falls off a cliff, the options may only be Murdoch or Private Equity, where the network will likely be stripped for parts. So who knows what the government of the day will allow. Both parties don't really want a 7-9 duopoly either.

 

[colly]

It's also why it's News Corp media death riding the current 10 board.

For Lachlan to get his way media ownership laws will have to be tweaked. But if 10 falls off a cliff, the options may only be Murdoch or Private Equity, where the network will likely be stripped for parts. So who knows what the government of the day will allow. Both parties don't really want a 7-9 duopoly either.

We don't want Lachlan to have Ten. Less competition. Ten and Fox would dominate the bidding. Very unlikely that Ten would go for the whole lot, TV FTA and All Access.. Really at $115 pa Nine have a bargain. I think a FTA/ and streamer and Fox could or can work, just say it not exclusive unless specified. If a FTA with it's 'streamer want the whole lot, sell then, but stipulate that current FTA games are shown, but it's streamer MUST (other 5/4 games)show behind a paywall. This will created a kind of exclusive and 'competition' which Fox might pay what they pay now or little more as they can't lose their Number 1 subsciber. So FTA /steamer must pay at least $285m pa to $325m pa for the package while Fox chips in $300m HAPPY DAYS

 

[Perth Red]

When the deal starts there will be a reference point

BUT

AFL and NRL are 1 and 2.

AFL should always get a bit more due to content reasons. 5-10% difference or so is reasonable.

Since this current deal started NRL is in front.

AFL will be soon, just how far is the question.

That deal of there is locked in. NRL still has another deal to add to current one. Where that sits will decide if NRL made an error going early

Yeh let’s pretend the $300mill or so difference doesnt exist between 2023 and 2028 lol

 

[The_Wookie]

Was thinking 598k

your mate wookie will have last years figures since we don’t have this years

You could ask your boyfriend on twitter

 

[The_Wookie]

There was a $90m jump in that category which goes with the $400m cash which AFR has said was the case all along

which assumes that no other licensing revenue - which includes wagering - increased, which isnt likely.

"driven by new media rights deal and record sponsorship, wagering and game day income"

 

[Iamback]

which assumes that no other licensing revenue - which includes wagering - increased, which isnt likely.

"driven by new media rights deal and record sponsorship, wagering and game day income"

it depends how much of the $409m for 2022 was TV money. All guess work but

That jumped to $485m. So how much of the extra $75m is TV money and how much is other factors.

In theory $350m tv in 2022. Leaves $59m for other stuff.

2023 $400m tv leaves $85m for other stuff.

So an increase for both is there according to the figures.

We know $15m of the $34m contra is ch9. So the $20m a year Fox increase for Dolphins can't be mostly contra. Of course that is included in the above increase

 

[Phil McGrawhan]

Don’t ya just love how the Afl fan boy says it’s all just guess work when anything that shows the NRL deal in a positive light is posted.
Then he posts over & over his absolutisms that portray the NRL deal as terrible & AFL deal wonderful .

 

[Wb1234]

You could ask your boyfriend on twitter

Angry people aren’t buying your reach message ?

 

[Perth Red]

2023 $400m tv leaves $85m for other stuff.

That would suggest the NRL has decreased revenue in some of those areas since 2019?

$50mill gambling (2022 figure), $10mill radio, $12mill merch (2019 figure) and $24mill digital (2019 figure). Those were last reported individual figures prior t the merger of things into licensing. $96 million based on 5 year old figures. Surely those 2019 revenue areas have increased in 5 years, and NRL have stated gamblig went up between 2022 and 2023?

 

[The_Wookie]

Angry people aren’t buying your reach message ?

No I just dont feel like doing shit for you

And its not my reach message. Its Oztams. I just put all the data out there. I dont pick and choose it.

 

[The_Wookie]

Don’t ya just love how the Afl fan boy says it’s all just guess work when anything that shows the NRL deal in a positive light is posted.
Then he posts over & over his absolutisms that portray the NRL deal as terrible & AFL deal wonderful .

Ive never known someone to be so negative about something they theoretically like. And its not limited to tv stuff, its everywhere. Bizarre.

 

[Wb1234]

No I just dont feel like doing shit for you

And its not my reach message. Its Oztams. I just put all the data out there. I dont pick and choose it.

Keep putting out that pro afl message

I’ve got a better source which knows reach is a load of bs and by using it promoting an afl agenda

Back on the ignore list I don’t come on here to talk to afl fans

 

[Iamback]

That would suggest the NRL has decreased revenue in some of those areas since 2019?

$50mill gambling (2022 figure), $10mill radio, $12mill merch (2019 figure) and $24mill digital (2019 figure). Those were last reported individual figures prior t the merger of things into licensing. $96 million based on 5 year old figures. Surely those 2019 revenue areas have increased in 5 years, and NRL have stated gamblig went up between 2022 and 2023?

Sportsbet are a sponsor. They likely have a revenue % as part of that.

That was $103m then. Is $183m now. You could be looking at 10-20% of that increase as being due to sportsbet increasing. Particularly as you are slammed with those ads before games

TV then was $327m cash
$20m for the Dolphins - Again no huge jump in contra. $5m for fox/sky

Only needs to be a $43m jump.

which last deal was reported as $1.8bn
This was reported as $2b

there is the missing $40m particularly

 

[Perth Red]

Sportsbet are a sponsor. They likely have a revenue % as part of that.

That was $103m then. Is $183m now. You could be looking at 10-20% of that increase as being due to sportsbet increasing. Particularly as you are slammed with those ads before games

TV then was $327m cash
$20m for the Dolphins - Again no huge jump in contra. $5m for fox/sky

Only needs to be a $43m jump.

which last deal was reported as $1.8bn
This was reported as $2b

there is the missing $40m particularly

Thats making a big assumption that the $2bill announced was cash only. Why they'd leave $150mill off the announcement and for the first time ever makes themselves look worse by not including contra in the release Im still waiting on an answer for?

And if it was $2bill thats not $400mill a year due to the 2% accounting rule. It'll be lower year 1 and higher yr 5.

its more likely the cash amount last year was around the $380-385 mark for tv alone. That makes the rest of licensing around $100mill-$105mill which is much more likely based on reported figures from the past

 

[The_Wookie]

Keep putting out that pro afl message

Im putting out a pro data message.

I’ve got a better source which knows reach is a load of bs and by using it promoting an afl agenda

Youve got a source who is using exactly the same data, and telling you what you want to hear. Fair enough I guess.

Back on the ignore list I don’t come on here to talk to afl fans

oh whatever will i do without you to talk to

 

[Perth Red]

Im putting out a pro data message.



Youve got a source who is using exactly the same data, and telling you what you want to hear. Fair enough I guess.



oh whatever will i do without you to talk to

I wish he'd put me on the ignore list lol