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2024 TV and Streaming Ratings Discussion

Iamback

Referee
Messages
20,296
We go through this same song and dance every time. There is a reason that the AFL consistently get more money despite always rating lower. This is just one of the factors that posters on here refuse to acknowledge.

So yet again we’ll have years of posters saying we will get much more than the AFL only to end up being proven wrong.

The problem is everyone on this forum treats this like a dick measuring contest, if the AFL get more money that means they’re more popular or better somehow. How much TV networks are willing to pay and how popular a sport is are not the same thing.

Good post, people need perspective with this

As I we speak AFL has 2 games running. NRL has an hour to go, If the game is a dud and people change to watch NRL. They have missed the Ads so hence give Fox a lower number to hit perspective sponsors with
 

Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
33,633
I don`t agree with that. The NRL will be to Australia what the NFL is to the U.S. and the length of games will mean diddly squat when valuing broadcast deals.
This accepting that we should accept a lesser broadcast deal is an extension of the same fatalism/inferiority complex that believes we cannot have average crowd figures like them as well.
Cricket goes all day

lower tv deal than both footy codes

last tv deal afl and nrl got the same
 

Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
33,633
Cricket gets $200m for 2 months of content.
NRL gets $400m for 6 months content.
Goes all day

then one dayers
T20 internationals and domestic series
Sheffield shield etc

and again

the last tv deal nrl and afl got basically the same
 

Billythekid

First Grade
Messages
6,828
I got to the bit where you used that dumb Americanism and stopped reading, what next "off of".
Pathetic. Don`t bother me again.
It’s a fun word.
Goes all day

then one dayers
T20 internationals and domestic series
Sheffield shield etc

and again

the last tv deal nrl and afl got basically the same
This is such a laughably stupid comparison that you’ve only brought in to muddy the waters. Cricket is longer but how many games of cricket are there per year on TV? It’s near impossible to compare.

I’m not going to get dragged into this circular argument again but even if we assume that the NRL and AFL got the exact same deal that doesn’t change anything. The NRL clearly rated significantly better and yet best case scenario is we almost matched the AFL in money. Why is that? Could it be because of all the other variables you refuse to acknowledge?
 

Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
33,633
It’s a fun word.

This is such a laughably stupid comparison that you’ve only brought in to muddy the waters. Cricket is longer but how many games of cricket are there per year on TV? It’s near impossible to compare.

I’m not going to get dragged into this circular argument again but even if we assume that the NRL and AFL got the exact same deal that doesn’t change anything. The NRL clearly rated significantly better and yet best case scenario is we almost matched the AFL in money. Why is that? Could it be because of all the other variables you refuse to acknowledge?
If they got the same deal then people can’t use game length as a reason for nrl getting less than afl.

the issue about nrl getting bigger ratings really became clear only a few years ago once streaming data was made available

previously all the commentary was about nrl ratings flatlining. Then the streaming data included and that was shown to be wrong

the afl got more money last time only by adding an extra round of afl and Tasmania

against that the nrl will have added

3 to 4 nrl teams
Women’s nrlw
Women’s origin
Pre season comp
Post season comp
 

Vlad59

Bench
Messages
4,048
It’s a fun word.

This is such a laughably stupid comparison that you’ve only brought in to muddy the waters. Cricket is longer but how many games of cricket are there per year on TV? It’s near impossible to compare.

I’m not going to get dragged into this circular argument again but even if we assume that the NRL and AFL got the exact same deal that doesn’t change anything. The NRL clearly rated significantly better and yet best case scenario is we almost matched the AFL in money. Why is that? Could it be because of all the other variables you refuse to acknowledge?
Good luck my friend getting a coherent response. Loved your post by the way about our tv deal. 100% correct
 

Iamback

Referee
Messages
20,296
It’s a fun word.

This is such a laughably stupid comparison that you’ve only brought in to muddy the waters. Cricket is longer but how many games of cricket are there per year on TV? It’s near impossible to compare.

I’m not going to get dragged into this circular argument again but even if we assume that the NRL and AFL got the exact same deal that doesn’t change anything. The NRL clearly rated significantly better and yet best case scenario is we almost matched the AFL in money. Why is that? Could it be because of all the other variables you refuse to acknowledge?

The sad thing is many many think that way on here. As the last couple of pages show.

It isn't just a RL issue BUT the issue is people want games without commercials. Also want less stoppages unlike the US sports, The issue is unless we are going to pay $200 a month for Fox sports. With less commercial space means less money they can get back
 

docbrown

Coach
Messages
11,842
While I agree the crossover does effect ratings hence why I take them with a grain of salt.

You are looking at it still as a whole, Those crossover games do affect the total numbers BUT ch7 in particular are able to run the game specific to a state.

In return they are able to sell ad space at a premium because they know they will get a higher number from that area.

Like the crossover game you speak of. 4th v 18th is a poo slinger however Adelaide it will rate fairly decent as it has an Adelaide team in it

I'd imagine as an SA business you'd want to get in on a Port Adelaide or Adelaide game during this time of the year?

So while generally yes that is a horrible time. There are more opportunities to make it up due to certain things that can be done. Which can't be in RL and hence RL is always less

In a few hours we can compare the relevant Thurs night game ratings. Then put in how much ad space each game would of had. NRL was a good one for commercials last night with the injuries and a few tries
I'm looking at it at both a micro and macro level.

Yeah they can run the game to a specific state. But it's not Sunday night. It's Saturday arvo. The gain in Adelaide will be in the low 10k's, if that. There's just not that many people watching TV in general, let alone for the AFL at that time. Also you may not have noticed but some of those Saturday arvo clash games have rated so low guys like The Wookie haven't actually been able to record them as they're not in the Top 30s. And when both have rated, even combined they have gotten outrated by 1 NRL game.

Go take a look at the ads that typically run in those Saturday afternoon slots across all networks. When you're seeing ads for small local businesses, it's because they're the cheapest to run. When you see the exact same national brand ad run every single break, it's because the network hasn't filled all their slots, so they run on loop to fill the unsold space as part of the national campaign buy because they run on spread volume, not just targeted slots. You'll also see an uptick in extended informercials. Again because they're cheap and longer to fill the slots. I repeat -- it's called the Dead Zone for a reason.

If they got the same deal then people can’t use game length as a reason for nrl getting less than afl.

the issue about nrl getting bigger ratings really became clear only a few years ago once streaming data was made available

previously all the commentary was about nrl ratings flatlining. Then the streaming data included and that was shown to be wrong
And yet I see over and over, and even last week, by people involved in their game for the game to be shortened.
It isn't just a RL issue BUT the issue is people want games without commercials.

Viewers aren't just migrating to streaming, they already have done it. Watch the post news drop off on 7 & 9. They used to hold 80-90% of those number post 7pm 25 years ago. But now the news finishes and people stream. And once the boomers die off, the 6pm News on FTA will be on death's door too.

Streaming doesn't need a tonne of ad breaks. Some services want that but on the whole most streaming viewers are streaming to get away from commercials. And what streaming services want is premium content in prime time when people are actually home and watching, with fewer stoppages to stop channel/service changers.

In the not too distance future, the majority of AFL & NRL games will run back to back to back in prime time, no talking head interruptions, no commercials. One game's whistle ends, the next game's whistle starts. Constant content with minimal opportunities for subscribers to choose to look elsewhere.

Anybody who can't see that coming shouldn't be in the business.
 

Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
33,633
I like 30 gaps between games need a rest

if the first game is a cracker I’ll miss the first half of the next game to chill out and clear the head
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
69,542
Nrl value in next deal will be on competition for rights not for content increase. Content increase probably worth $20-30mill. Competition for rights could push it up $100mill +

better all be praying there are three genuine bidders for 2028!
 

Iamback

Referee
Messages
20,296
I'm looking at it at both a micro and macro level.

Yeah they can run the game to a specific state. But it's not Sunday night. It's Saturday arvo. The gain in Adelaide will be in the low 10k's, if that. There's just not that many people watching TV in general, let alone for the AFL at that time. Also you may not have noticed but some of those Saturday arvo clash games have rated so low guys like The Wookie haven't actually been able to record them as they're not in the Top 30s. And when both have rated, even combined they have gotten outrated by 1 NRL game.

Go take a look at the ads that typically run in those Saturday afternoon slots across all networks. When you're seeing ads for small local businesses, it's because they're the cheapest to run. When you see the exact same national brand ad run every single break, it's because the network hasn't filled all their slots, so they run on loop to fill the unsold space as part of the national campaign buy because they run on spread volume, not just targeted slots. You'll also see an uptick in extended informercials. Again because they're cheap and longer to fill the slots. I repeat -- it's called the Dead Zone for a reason.





Viewers aren't just migrating to streaming, they already have done it. Watch the post news drop off on 7 & 9. They used to hold 80-90% of those number post 7pm 25 years ago. But now the news finishes and people stream. And once the boomers die off, the 6pm News on FTA will be on death's door too.

Streaming doesn't need a tonne of ad breaks. Some services want that but on the whole most streaming viewers are streaming to get away from commercials. And what streaming services want is premium content in prime time when people are actually home and watching, with fewer stoppages to stop channel/service changers.

In the not too distance future, the majority of AFL & NRL games will run back to back to back in prime time, no talking head interruptions, no commercials. One game's whistle ends, the next game's whistle starts. Constant content with minimal opportunities for subscribers to choose to look elsewhere.

Anybody who can't see that coming shouldn't be in the business.

Who can afford that though?

Easy to say in theory no ads but reality is it is needed.

As for the back to back. Nothing worst than missing the start in NBA or something because networks tried to be too cute with the start times
 

docbrown

Coach
Messages
11,842
Who can afford that though?

Easy to say in theory no ads but reality is it is needed.

As for the back to back. Nothing worst than missing the start in NBA or something because networks tried to be too cute with the start times
Well it's not a secret but the FTA network model is dead. Advertising revenues can't prop them up any more because the majority of that former advertising income has shifted to online advertising.

There's 3 things keeping FTA networks alive at the moment:

1. Baby boomers - who will be dying in droves over the next 10-20 years.
2. They are part of corporate conglomerates who are diversified across multiple entertainment/media platforms e.g. big guys like the 6 Majors (soon to be 5). However, over the next 20 years these conglomerates will start divesting of unprofitable FTA networks, selling them to funds to strip their assets for profit. I'm not only talking about Channel 10 in Australia. I'm talking about the 3 majors in the USA too.
3. They have a profitable streaming service - spoiler alert: most don't and will fail.

You say the reality is that ads are needed. Yes, they are. But the bigger reality that people need to accept is that ad money is NEVER coming back to FTA and streaming.
 

Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
33,633
Well it's not a secret but the FTA network model is dead. Advertising revenues can't prop them up any more because the majority of that former advertising income has shifted to online advertising.

There's 3 things keeping FTA networks alive at the moment:

1. Baby boomers - who will be dying in droves over the next 10-20 years.
2. They are part of corporate conglomerates who are diversified across multiple entertainment/media platforms e.g. big guys like the 6 Majors (soon to be 5). However, over the next 20 years these conglomerates will start divesting of unprofitable FTA networks, selling them to funds to strip their assets for profit. I'm not only talking about Channel 10 in Australia. I'm talking about the 3 majors in the USA too.
3. They have a profitable streaming service - spoiler alert: most don't and will fail.

You say the reality is that ads are needed. Yes, they are. But the bigger reality that people need to accept is that ad money is NEVER coming back to FTA and streaming.
Surely an issue for afl going Forward since they have poor subscriber numbers vs rugby league and rely upon a longer game and more ads to compensate
 

Iamback

Referee
Messages
20,296
Well it's not a secret but the FTA network model is dead. Advertising revenues can't prop them up any more because the majority of that former advertising income has shifted to online advertising.

There's 3 things keeping FTA networks alive at the moment:

1. Baby boomers - who will be dying in droves over the next 10-20 years.
2. They are part of corporate conglomerates who are diversified across multiple entertainment/media platforms e.g. big guys like the 6 Majors (soon to be 5). However, over the next 20 years these conglomerates will start divesting of unprofitable FTA networks, selling them to funds to strip their assets for profit. I'm not only talking about Channel 10 in Australia. I'm talking about the 3 majors in the USA too.
3. They have a profitable streaming service - spoiler alert: most don't and will fail.

You say the reality is that ads are needed. Yes, they are. But the bigger reality that people need to accept is that ad money is NEVER coming back to FTA and streaming.

That is the reason I am for things like Vegas, PNG etc because when TV gets to that stage.

4m people paying $40 a month for Kayo isn't going to pay for the rights.

Need to get more eyes paying for the games

However while ever we have this model for the next couple of tv deals atleast. Ad space is key to keeping the sport moving forward
 

docbrown

Coach
Messages
11,842
That is the reason I am for things like Vegas, PNG etc because when TV gets to that stage.

4m people paying $40 a month for Kayo isn't going to pay for the rights.

Need to get more eyes paying for the games

However while ever we have this model for the next couple of tv deals atleast. Ad space is key to keeping the sport moving forward
The NRL is buying property. They seem to be aware of what's coming around the corner. The less reliant the AFL and NRL are on FTA network ad revenues, the better.

There's going to be a period of chaos as FTA and streaming services collapse, and it will affects sports broadcast deals worldwide.

You say the next couple of deals at least. I'm saying it could be sooner than you think. If 10 gets sold for parts and 9 collapses under debt because they can't get Stan profitable and don't get bought by an outside conglomerate, we may end up with a sole FTA bidder who can set their own price. That could all easily happen within 10 years, the change is happening that quickly. It could be just 1 more broadcast deal increase and then a period of stagnation/decline in overall rights values for both the NRL/AFL.

That's why I suspect 9 will go all out on the full rights package.
 

Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
33,633
The NRL is buying property. They seem to be aware of what's coming around the corner. The less reliant the AFL and NRL are on FTA network ad revenues, the better.

There's going to be a period of chaos as FTA and streaming services collapse, and it will affects sports broadcast deals worldwide.

You say the next couple of deals at least. I'm saying it could be sooner than you think. If 10 gets sold for parts and 9 collapses under debt because they can't get Stan profitable and don't get bought by an outside conglomerate, we may end up with a sole FTA bidder who can set their own price. That could all easily happen within 10 years, the change is happening that quickly. It could be just 1 more broadcast deal increase and then a period of stagnation/decline in overall rights values for both the NRL/AFL.

That's why I suspect 9 will go all out on the full rights package.
Property investment will never replace tv revenue

Would need 4 to 8 billion in property to generate 400 million pa

fta is a small component of the tv deal even if it was just seven it would mean little loss of revenue for the nrl
 

colly

Juniors
Messages
1,066
That is the reason I am for things like Vegas, PNG etc because when TV gets to that stage.

4m people paying $40 a month for Kayo isn't going to pay for the rights.

Need to get more eyes paying for the games

However while ever we have this model for the next couple of tv deals atleast. Ad space is key to keeping the sport moving forward
Well the figures you supplied ie 4 million paying $40 equals 160,000,000 or 160 million dollars. However you have to times by 9 months to get the yearly figure, which is, 1, 440,000,000 or 1.4 billion dollars per year so that's more than enough for the NRL
 

Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
33,633
Well the figures you supplied ie 4 million paying $40 equals 160,000,000 or 160 million dollars. However you have to times by 9 months to get the yearly figure, which is, 1, 440,000,000 or 1.4 billion dollars per year so that's more than enough for the NRL
Nrl max 1.5 million subscribers

what’s that work out too with what kayo is charging ?
 

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