2024 TV and Streaming Ratings Discussion

[Karl15]

Some of the stats released in the last few weeks really give a good indication of total viewing numbers, and in turn, the relative values of the codes to Foxtel

The AFL has 198 regular season games which last approximately 3 hours at an average audience of 397,000 which equals 594 hours and a total audience of 2.358million

The NRL has 204 regular season games which last approximately 2 hours at an average audience of 483,000 which equals 408 hours and a total audience of 1.971 million

Leaving Origin (which is exclusive to Nine) and Finals (which are all shown live free to air as well) you would expect the NRL to get a television deal approx 83.5% of the Foxtel AFL deal based on total audience time watched.

The AFL did a deal for $643 million per year. They never announced the breakup between Seven and Fox but media talk at the time had it a 65% Fox/35% Seven split, meaning Fox paid approx $418 million. If we received 83.5% of the AFL deal as per the above calcs we should get approx $350 per year from Fox, which I agree sounds a bit low comparatively.

It does show the value of expansion, if we can get 20 teams playing 24 games each, that would mean 240 games x 2 hours x 483,000 average audience and a total audience of 2.318million, almost equal to the AFL,

They're the figure I'd be quoting to Foxtel if I were V'Landys demanding we get at least $400 million from Foxtel in the next deal. They should be paying what Fox and Nine are paying now just for subscription TV for a 20 team comp.
Go the Western Bears! Go the Keas! Go the Hunters!

The bigger question is why our free-to-air deal is so far behind the AFL's, especially when we have 3 x Origin games that rate 4 times the highest club game. That I don't have an answer for

 

[Vlad59]

Some of the stats released in the last few weeks really give a good indication of total viewing numbers, and in turn, the relative values of the codes to Foxtel

The AFL has 198 regular season games which last approximately 3 hours at an average audience of 397,000 which equals 594 hours and a total audience of 2.358million

The NRL has 204 regular season games which last approximately 2 hours at an average audience of 483,000 which equals 408 hours and a total audience of 1.971 million

Leaving Origin (which is exclusive to Nine) and Finals (which are all shown live free to air as well) you would expect the NRL to get a television deal approx 83.5% of the Foxtel AFL deal based on total audience time watched.

The AFL did a deal for $643 million per year. They never announced the breakup between Seven and Fox but media talk at the time had it a 65% Fox/35% Seven split, meaning Fox paid approx $418 million. If we received 83.5% of the AFL deal as per the above calcs we should get approx $350 per year from Fox, which I agree sounds a bit low comparatively.

It does show the value of expansion, if we can get 20 teams playing 24 games each, that would mean 240 games x 2 hours x 483,000 average audience and a total audience of 2.318million, almost equal to the AFL,

They're the figure I'd be quoting to Foxtel if I were V'Landys demanding we get at least $400 million from Foxtel in the next deal. They should be paying what Fox and Nine are paying now just for subscription TV for a 20 team comp.
Go the Western Bears! Go the Keas! Go the Hunters!

The bigger question is why our free-to-air deal is so far behind the AFL's, especially when we have 3 x Origin games that rate 4 times the highest club game. That I don't have an answer for

That’s great analysis mate. Only point I’d make is that the afl had 207 games this year so their data will change slightly. But overall you are spot on.

AFL Tables - Crowds 1921-2024

 

[Frank Burge]

those figure are wrong and has been debunked before, AFL on Fox approx 155 min run time , NRL on Fox 115 min run time . So a multiplier of 1.35 not 1.5. 4 x nrl games = 3 x afl games.

 

[The_Wookie]

nvm

forgot to post in time

 

[Wb1234]

Nrl makes up for it with on Saturday with that gap between games of around 45 mins getting large ratings

 

[Vlad59]

Nrl makes up for it with on Saturday with that gap between games of around 45 mins getting large ratings

It makes up 1 billion minutes? You need help

 

[Iamback]

those figure are wrong and has been debunked before, AFL on Fox approx 155 min run time , NRL on Fox 115 min run time . So a multiplier of 1.35 not 1.5. 4 x nrl games = 3 x afl games.

Yes but that doesn't allow for extra ad space. 1.5 is much easier to make

 

[Iamback]

Some of the stats released in the last few weeks really give a good indication of total viewing numbers, and in turn, the relative values of the codes to Foxtel

The AFL has 198 regular season games which last approximately 3 hours at an average audience of 397,000 which equals 594 hours and a total audience of 2.358million

The NRL has 204 regular season games which last approximately 2 hours at an average audience of 483,000 which equals 408 hours and a total audience of 1.971 million

Leaving Origin (which is exclusive to Nine) and Finals (which are all shown live free to air as well) you would expect the NRL to get a television deal approx 83.5% of the Foxtel AFL deal based on total audience time watched.

The AFL did a deal for $643 million per year. They never announced the breakup between Seven and Fox but media talk at the time had it a 65% Fox/35% Seven split, meaning Fox paid approx $418 million. If we received 83.5% of the AFL deal as per the above calcs we should get approx $350 per year from Fox, which I agree sounds a bit low comparatively.

It does show the value of expansion, if we can get 20 teams playing 24 games each, that would mean 240 games x 2 hours x 483,000 average audience and a total audience of 2.318million, almost equal to the AFL,

They're the figure I'd be quoting to Foxtel if I were V'Landys demanding we get at least $400 million from Foxtel in the next deal. They should be paying what Fox and Nine are paying now just for subscription TV for a 20 team comp.
Go the Western Bears! Go the Keas! Go the Hunters!

The bigger question is why our free-to-air deal is so far behind the AFL's, especially when we have 3 x Origin games that rate 4 times the highest club game. That I don't have an answer for

The $643m counts Telstra too though.

TV is roughly $550m for AFL. FTA was $140m according to the rumours A 14% increase has that at just under $160m a year.

Leaving Fox at $390m at the most which seems far more realistic given the size of Fox' customer base

Ad revenue is the answer to the FTA question

 

[Wb1234]

The $643m counts Telstra too though.

TV is roughly $550m for AFL. FTA was $140m according to the rumours A 14% increase has that at just under $160m a year.

Leaving Fox at $290m which seems far more realistic given the size of Fox' customer base

Ad revenue is the answer to the FTA question

Afl tv 550 million minus seven 140 million means Fox 410 million

 

[Iamback]

Afl tv 550 million minus seven 140 million means Fox 410 million

No $140m was the old deal. 14% increase this deal. Or $19m in real terms.

So averages out at $159m. We know this is fact because it had to be reported to share holders

 

[Wb1234]

No $140m was the old deal. 14% increase this deal. Or $19m in real terms.

So averages out at $159m. We know this is fact because it had to be reported to share holders

Leaves fox at 390 million then

with the extra teams nrl should be aiming for 450 to 500 million from fox

 

[Iamback]

Leaves fox at 390 million then

with the extra teams nrl should be aiming for 450 to 500 million from fox

Not when you break it down fully.

You are about $50m over

Again Fox have 4m customers. So Fox aren't paying any sport $500m a year. Particularly when 15% of the teams are based overseas.

No 1 network in Australia can pay that, when it gets to that stage the rights will have to get broken up

 

[Wb1234]

Not when you break it down fully.

You are about $50m over

Again Fox have 4m customers. So Fox aren't paying any sport $500m a year. Particularly when 15% of the teams are based overseas.

No 1 network in Australia can pay that, when it gets to that stage the rights will have to get broken up

Teams playing overseas is irrelevant

they will have games which FoxSports will show to Aussie viewers

assuming afl has 400 million for 18 teams then 20 nrl teams plus rep games should be 500 million

It all depends if Stan bid if they do foxsports will have to pay up

 

[Iamback]

Teams playing overseas is irrelevant

they will have games which FoxSports will show to Aussie viewers

assuming afl has 400 million for 18 teams then 20 nrl teams plus rep games should be 500 million

It all depends if Stan bid if they do foxsports will have to pay up

So how many PNG fans living in PNG are going to buy a Kayo or Stan sub?

AFL doesn't get $400m that is my point. There is also speculation that ch7 can't afford the next TV deal.

That is why NRL are trying to crack US. To make Netflix think that they get subs from it. You know are service that is available Overseas

 

[Vlad59]

Teams playing overseas is irrelevant

they will have games which FoxSports will show to Aussie viewers

assuming afl has 400 million for 18 teams then 20 nrl teams plus rep games should be 500 million

It all depends if Stan bid if they do foxsports will have to pay up

Keep off drugs kiddies

 

[Vlad59]

So how many PNG fans living in PNG are going to buy a Kayo or Stan sub?

15 million according to WB

 

[Wb1234]

So how many PNG fans living in PNG are going to buy a Kayo or Stan sub?

AFL doesn't get $400m that is my point. There is also speculation that ch7 can't afford the next TV deal.

That is why NRL are trying to crack US. To make Netflix think that they get subs from it. You know are service that is available Overseas

Again png or nz teams will be sold to local markets

but also those games will also be shown by foxtel in Australia

nz 2 should deliver a ten million increase on the nz tv deal and also give Fox more content as well

us is a very long term play

the most they will get is more subscribers on the nrl app

google Netflix or Amazon aren’t paying billions for an Australian sport with limited global appeal

 

[Iamback]

Again png or nz teams will be sold to local markets

but also those games will also be shown by foxtel in Australia

nz 2 should deliver a ten million increase on the nz tv deal and also give Fox more content as well

us is a very long term play

the most they will get is more subscribers on the nrl app

google Netflix or Amazon aren’t paying billions for an Australian sport with limited global appeal

Yes they will but that isn't money from Stan or Fox.

Total NRL money and money from Fox/Stan aren't the same thing.

I agree but the same applies for AFL so the TV rights stagnate in that case

 

[Wb1234]

Yes they will but that isn't money from Stan or Fox.

Total NRL money and money from Fox/Stan aren't the same thing.

I agree but the same applies for AFL so the TV rights stagnate in that case

When the warriors play games are they shown on FoxSports australia ?

 

[Perth Red]

Some of the stats released in the last few weeks really give a good indication of total viewing numbers, and in turn, the relative values of the codes to Foxtel

The AFL has 198 regular season games which last approximately 3 hours at an average audience of 397,000 which equals 594 hours and a total audience of 2.358million

The NRL has 204 regular season games which last approximately 2 hours at an average audience of 483,000 which equals 408 hours and a total audience of 1.971 million

Leaving Origin (which is exclusive to Nine) and Finals (which are all shown live free to air as well) you would expect the NRL to get a television deal approx 83.5% of the Foxtel AFL deal based on total audience time watched.

The AFL did a deal for $643 million per year. They never announced the breakup between Seven and Fox but media talk at the time had it a 65% Fox/35% Seven split, meaning Fox paid approx $418 million. If we received 83.5% of the AFL deal as per the above calcs we should get approx $350 per year from Fox, which I agree sounds a bit low comparatively.

It does show the value of expansion, if we can get 20 teams playing 24 games each, that would mean 240 games x 2 hours x 483,000 average audience and a total audience of 2.318million, almost equal to the AFL,

They're the figure I'd be quoting to Foxtel if I were V'Landys demanding we get at least $400 million from Foxtel in the next deal. They should be paying what Fox and Nine are paying now just for subscription TV for a 20 team comp.
Go the Western Bears! Go the Keas! Go the Hunters!

The bigger question is why our free-to-air deal is so far behind the AFL's, especially when we have 3 x Origin games that rate 4 times the highest club game. That I don't have an answer for

Total hours and even advert space is largely irrelevant for pay tv. It’s about number of subscribers, that’s what drives their revenue. I’m sure fox know how many nrl and afl subscribers they have and value the products accordingly. Leaving aside bias and sht negotiations.