2025 Crowd Watch

[Rabbits20]

As per kennel just now Pax 43266

Slowish day as expected today! Should really start picking up from tomorrow night.

Do you think it’ll end up in the 65-68k range mate or do you think it can hit the 70-72k mark?

 

[Suitman]

Do you think it’ll end up in the 65-68k range mate or do you think it can hit the 70-72k mark?

Why ask @ouwet that question?
How would he know?
No issue with ouwet, but what a stupid question.
The game will sell as many tickets as it can. Simples.

 

[Rabbits20]

Why ask @ouwet that question?
How would he know?
No issue with ouwet, but what a stupid question.
The game will sell as many tickets as it can. Simples.

He’s generally a very good judge. I wasn’t having a go he doesn’t have to answer if he doesn’t want.

He or someone else might also have previous data too on how similar big events have looked 3 days into ticket sales for previous games etc.

 

[Iamback]

Feels like people are missing my entire argument.

The idea is to play it the city so fans who might live across town can attend. For example, say you're a Sharks fan but live in Hornsby, you aren't going to Shark Park but you might go once or twice a year into the city to watch them play. The whole point is to increase your fanbase/memberships/revenue.

Or you can just stay at Shark Park and without government funding you're screwed in twenty years.

Because anyone who buys merch, tickets to the games and so on. Enters their code, if there were enough Sharks fans in Hornsby to justify it the club would know.

No club is leaving cash on the table

 

[Suitman]

He’s generally a very good judge. I wasn’t having a go he doesn’t have to answer if he doesn’t want.

He or someone else might also have previous data too on how similar big events have looked 3 days into ticket sales for previous games etc.

Just relax. I'm sure the figures will be updated as they come to hand.

 

[Iamback]

He’s generally a very good judge. I wasn’t having a go he doesn’t have to answer if he doesn’t want.

He or someone else might also have previous data too on how similar big events have looked 3 days into ticket sales for previous games etc.

We have if not the youngest than one of the youngest fan bases. Their attendance relies on the parents, so not sure data will be any good. Especially as there seems to be very few freebies this week

 

[ouwet]

He’s generally a very good judge. I wasn’t having a go he doesn’t have to answer if he doesn’t want.

He or someone else might also have previous data too on how similar big events have looked 3 days into ticket sales for previous games etc.

I do some work at the stadiums and know a few people... they're getting prepared (security, food, staff etc) for a crowd of approx. 70,000.

Good weather will help... hopefully some good promotion will tip it over.

 

[EuroNymous]

I do some work at the stadiums and know a few people... they're getting prepared (security, food, staff etc) for a crowd of approx. 70,000.

Good weather will help... hopefully some good promotion will tip it over.

the fact they running event buses tells me enough they expect big crowd, they never do that outside of GF/origin

 

[Wb1234]

Just had a look lower bowl still has a lot of tickets by the looks of it

Those category one tickets are tops Ticketek are such mongs for holding them back until now

 

[newc18]

Because anyone who buys merch, tickets to the games and so on. Enters their code, if there were enough Sharks fans in Hornsby to justify it the club would know.

No club is leaving cash on the table

That's the point. These potential fans don't go to a Sharks game because no one apart from diehards are travelling to the Shire. Not everyone buys their merch through the club or NRL either. However if you were to take one or two games a year and play them at Allianz, and you get the NRL to schedule it on a Sunday afternoon so fans from the Shire have every chance to attend, then over time you will slowly build it with fans across the entire city.

If the Sharks are content with their fanbase just being people from the Shire, then ignore what i said, but unless Shark Park gets some funding, they are screwed long term and may be forced to move anyway. It's probably the only thing I admire about the AFL, you can have a club like Geelong play at the MCG over 70km away from their home ground and they will still fill it, so clearly they have some fans in Melbourne as well.

 

[Iamback]

That's the point. These potential fans don't go to a Sharks game because no one apart from diehards are travelling to the Shire. Not everyone buys their merch through the club or NRL either. However if you were to take one or two games a year and play them at Allianz, and you get the NRL to schedule it on a Sunday afternoon so fans from the Shire have every chance to attend, then over time you will slowly build it.

If the Sharks are content with their fanbase just being people from the Shire, then ignore what i said, but unless Shark Park gets some funding, they are screwed long term and may be forced to move anyway. It's probably the only thing I admire about the AFL, you can have a club like Geelong play at the MCG over 70km away from their home ground and they will still fill it, so clearly they have some fans in Melbourne as well.

I used that as an example, there is social media any number of things used by Clubs, they own Shark Park. They aren't going to pay Stadiums NSW several hundred thousand on a hope and a prayer

 

[newc18]

They aren't going to pay Stadiums NSW several hundred thousand on a hope and a prayer

Well they are going to need a hope and a prayer to get funding for Shark Park lol.

 

[Wb1234]

That's the point. These potential fans don't go to a Sharks game because no one apart from diehards are travelling to the Shire. Not everyone buys their merch through the club or NRL either. However if you were to take one or two games a year and play them at Allianz, and you get the NRL to schedule it on a Sunday afternoon so fans from the Shire have every chance to attend, then over time you will slowly build it with fans across the entire city.

If the Sharks are content with their fanbase just being people from the Shire, then ignore what i said, but unless Shark Park gets some funding, they are screwed long term and may be forced to move anyway. It's probably the only thing I admire about the AFL, you can have a club like Geelong play at the MCG over 70km away from their home ground and they will still fill it, so clearly they have some fans in Melbourne as well.

Nah clubs who represent a defined area and play in that area or very close to it is the essence of rugby league

It was literally one of the reasons the nswrl was set up

Centralised stadia play a part for event games

Cronulla aren’t moving from sp
Manly aren’t moving from Brookie

Until they build teleportation devices it’s just not attractive for fans of those clubs

 

[newc18]

Centralised stadia play a part for event games

100% agree and that's the point I'm making. A club like the Sharks should take one or two games a year, play it at Allianz and build it into an event game. Every club should get the opportunity.

Cronulla aren’t moving from sp
Manly aren’t moving from Brookie

I never said for them to move all their games, only a couple. Overall I have no issues with clubs playing at their home grounds provided they are up to a standard worthy of being in a billion dollar competition.

Until they build teleportation devices it’s just not attractive for fans of those clubs

It's why scheduling is the big factor here. For example a Cronulla vs Dragons game at Allianz could potentially build into a solid 20/25k a year game, provided they schedule it at a decent time.

 

[Rabbits20]

Just relax. I'm sure the figures will be updated as they come to hand.

I am relaxed mate not stressed you were the one that got uptight with me if ouwet thought my question was inappropriate then he would tell me that himself.

I am a numbers man though always liked numbers it’s always been a talent of mine do multiplication etc in my head don’t need a calculator etc……. My Sister always comes to me when calculating numbers stuff hahaha!

It’s why I love NRL Fantasy too all the numbers and stats etc…. Clubs membership tallies etc I love all that too.

 

[Rabbits20]

I do some work at the stadiums and know a few people... they're getting prepared (security, food, staff etc) for a crowd of approx. 70,000.

Good weather will help... hopefully some good promotion will tip it over.

Anywhere close to 70,000 would be amazing. It’s defs gonna crack low to mid 60’s I think we can all agree on that for sure.

Might end up being a couple of thousand of neutrals that go too.

I think this crowd will break a number of records

 

[Sky_Is_The_Limit]

So last year Canterbury played Manly in Round 1 of the NRL Finals in the same timeslot (4:00pm Sunday afternoon) at the same venue (Accor Stadium).

The Wednesday prior to that game had a pax update of 32,600:

https://forums.leagueunlimited.com/threads/2024-crowd-watch.490886/page-316

The final crowd for Canterbury vs Manly was 50,714.

As such:

Factor = 2024 Wednesday pax / 2024 Sunday crowd
Factor = 32,600 / 50,714
Factor = 0.6428

2025 crowd estimate = 2025 Wednesday pax / 2024 factor
2025 crowd estimate = 43,266 / 0.6428
2025 crowd estimate = 67,308

 

[Sky_Is_The_Limit]

The next pax update I can find from Canterbury vs Manly is 40,450 on the Saturday before the game.

That gives a factor of 0.7976. So if we can get a pax update on Saturday, we can see what that does to the crowd estimate formula.

 

[Desert Qlder]

There truly needs to be a word for the study and prediction of crowd sizes. The work of some contributors here deserves such recognition.

I propose 'gregareology'.

From the latin gregare - to gather or assemble.

 

[ParraEelsNRL]

There truly needs to be a word for the study and prediction of crowd sizes. The work of some contributors here deserves such recognition.

I propose 'gregareology'.

From the latin gregare - to gather or assemble.

Stop it, we could be here for a month if we want to study Latin. I personally love it, The language pulls no punches as it were. For example, Politics in Latin translated back from English literally means, Poli = Many and Tics = Parasites, so we get Politics which = Many Parasites.

Then we have Government, Govern = Control, Ment = Mind, thus we have Controlled Mind, or reversed, Mind control.